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Regional Economy
Texas Employment Data Revised Up
November 2005
Fiona
Sigalla and Franklin D. Berger report on a revision in the Dallas
Fed's estimate for 2005 job growth.
The Dallas Fed
has revised its estimate of Texas job growth over the last year
from 1.8 percent to 2.4 percent, based on an addition of 57,000
new jobs between September 2004 and September 2005 to current figures.
Preliminary payroll
employment estimates are based on a sampling of firms.[1] These
data are used by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Texas Workforce
Commission (TWC) and the Dallas Fed to calculate initial job growth
estimates for the most recent months.
Another estimate
of employment is computed using quarterly filings by firms reporting
the number of employees eligible for unemployment insurance. This
estimate is much more comprehensive but is available only with a
lag of several months.[2]
The BLS and TWC revise
initial job growth estimates using the more comprehensive data in
March of each year. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas re-estimates
job growth four times per year as soon as the more comprehensive
data become available.[3] The difference between these employment
series can, at times, be substantial.
The chart shows
how the early use of these new data has led to a difference between
employment data reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and
data reported by the TWC and BLS.
The BLS and TWC are currently
reporting 1.5 percent job growth for the September 2004 to September
2005 period, 85,000 fewer jobs than the Dallas Fed’s current
estimate. Based on Dallas Fed calculations, the BLS and TWC will
revise up Texas employment growth when they incorporate these new
data in March 2006.
| Sigalla
is an economist and Berger is director of technical
support and data analysis in the Research Department
of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
NOTES:
1.
This employment sample is referred to as the Establishment
Survey.
2. This more comprehensive survey is referred to as
the Covered Employment and Wages survey. This survey
is typically released with a one to two quarter lag.
3. In mid October, new data from the Covered Employment
and Wages survey were released for the second quarter
of 2005. Data were revised for first quarter 2005. The
Dallas Fed also improves the quality of its employment
data estimates by using a sophisticated seasonal adjustment
technique. For more information about both of these
statistical adjustments, see “Reassessing
Texas Employment Growth [PDF],” by Franklin
D. Berger and Keith R. Phillips, Federal Reserve Bank
of Dallas Southwest Economy July/August 1993.
SUGGESTED
CITATION:
Sigalla,
Fiona, and Franklin D. Berger (2005), "Texas Employment
Data Revised Up," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Expand
Your Insight, November 14, 2005, www.dallasfed.org/eyi/regional/archived/0510texas.html. |
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