Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

Report in PDF

January 29, 2013

Texas Service Sector Activity Expands at a Slower Pace

Texas Retail Outlook Survey

January 29, 2013 

Retail Sales Growth Picks Up

Retail Sales Growth Picks Up

Next release: February 26, 2013

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

January 29, 2013

*Indicator direction refers to this month's index. If index is positive (negative), indicator is increasing (decreasing) or improving (worsening). If zero, indicator is unchanged.
**Number of months moving in current direction.
Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.

Texas Retail Outlook Survey

January 29, 2013

*Indicator direction refers to this month's index. If index is positive (negative), indicator is increasing (decreasing) or improving (worsening). If zero, indicator is unchanged.
**Number of months moving in current direction.
Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

January 29, 2013

Downloadable TSSOS chart: Low-res (72 dpi) | Hi-res (300 dpi)

Texas Retail Outlook Survey

January 29, 2013

Downloadable TROS chart: Low-res (72 dpi) | Hi-res (300 dpi)

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

January 29, 2013

Comments from Survey Respondents

These comments are from respondents' completed surveys and have been edited for publication.

Credit Intermediation and Related Activities

• Our greatest reason for increased cost to provide services is the pending new regulatory environment.
• The government needs to address the tax and budget issues to reduce the concerns of the business community.
• The local economy remains sluggish. We are slowly increasing the number of jobs, but high unemployment remains. Construction trade is very slow, but retail, hospitality and health services are doing okay.

Insurance Carriers and Related Activities

• Insurance market pricing is firming up. However, the level of general business activity is suspect right now. There is uncertainty about cuts to U.S. military budgets.

Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments and Related Activities

• Solid job growth pushes increased retail sales and stronger home sales. Agriculture is slower, but energy is up.

Real Estate

• Revenues and prices are improving very slightly. There is still some level of uncertainty. I think we will know more in the next 45 days about how consumers really feel about purchasing big ticket items like homes. Overall our outlook is hopeful.

Rental and Leasing Services

• Year-end 2012 capital goods sales were a company record as customers used what they thought were the last tax advantages and deductions ever to defer government income taxes. As it turned out, some of those deductions are still available in 2013. We cannot tell what the level of business activity is going to be so far into 2013. January is going to be at best 50 percent of December’s level.

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

• A major customer's expansion is driving our growth for this period.
• Residential lot construction is increasing monthly in the northern part of the DFW area. It appears this is driving early stages of exploration and development of shopping centers.

Management of Companies and Enterprises

• We can't say it enough times: "Too Much Regulation." You can ask anyone in any industry, and they will all tell you that overregulation is hurting them. All of the compliance cost eventually gets passed on to the customer. It is basically a hidden tax on the consumer.

Administrative and Support Services

• Uncertainty over the cost of health care continues, pending credible and quantifiable information.

Ambulatory Health Care Services

• The Affordable Care Act brings decreases in reimbursement effective Jan 1 for Medicare patients. Strategies to move away from Medicare patient imaging are being pursued at this time. There appears to be a strategy to move imaging from low-cost outpatient facilities to high-cost hospital providers, which will dramatically increase the costs for nonfederal payers and ultimately the consumer who is paying the insurance premium.

Food Services and Drinking Places

• We are quite concerned about the upcoming effects of the health care reform on our business as the year progresses and particularly in 2014.
• We are concerned that business may be impacted by the 2 percent increase in payroll taxes this year. Our customers are very budget wary, and we think the 20 to 40 dollars less per check could result in fewer restaurant visits in early 2013. It’s too soon to tell. The majority of our growth is coming from new restaurant openings.
• Our sales are down about 2 percent in the first two weeks of this fiscal period. That is the worst performance since early in 2012. Our employee numbers and workweek have stayed the same because operations did not respond to the drop in sales, which led to a high increase in wage and benefit cost. Our cost of goods is stable. In the six-month horizon we have indicated that the number of employees and the average workweek will be down. It won't shift a whole lot, but if sales stay where they are and it seems like that is what is going to happen, we will have to cut back. The average workweek hours will take the largest hit. We expect that we may be forced to cut some positions that are currently full-time to part-time.

Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods

• We are still tied directly to irrigation and rain water received.
• The increases in wages in January are normal annual cost of living and merit increases. The increases anticipated six months from now are seasonal increases.

Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods

• High grain prices are still adversely affecting our ability to sell fish at a profit.

Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers

• We are very concerned about the unknowns of the health care reform. We spent a lot of time attending seminars and reading about it instead of working to increase business. We think we are okay but are not totally sure and afraid of the hidden items. We are also worried about the uncontrollable costs, such as the health insurance premium itself. Providers are indicating substantial increases are inevitable.

Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers

• As we have said in the past, banks are starting to lighten up, but they need to learn not to open full blast then just completely turn off.
• We never have experienced times like these where you don't have a feel for where your business activity is. We started 2013 with a larger open order file than last year, but January may be one of our worst months in years. We think we have some pent-up demand and 2013 will be better than 2012, but we’re still not sure about inflation, maintaining margins and overhead cost with all that is being talked about. There is not much room for mistakes coming off some tough years, but we still believe better days are ahead.

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

Historical Data

Historical data can be downloaded dating back to January 2007.

Indexes

Download indexes for all indicators. For the definitions of all variables, see Data Definitions.

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey			Texas Retail Outlook Survey
Unadjusted			Unadjusted
Seasonally adjusted			Seasonally adjusted

All Data

Download indexes and components of the indexes (percentage of respondents reporting increase, decrease, or no change). For the definitions of all variables, see Data Definitions.

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey			Texas Retail Outlook Survey
Unadjusted			Unadjusted
Seasonally adjusted			Seasonally adjusted