Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

Report in PDF

February 26, 2013

Texas Service Sector Growth Picks Up

Texas Retail Outlook Survey

February 26, 2013 

Retail Sales Rise

Retail Sales Rise

Next release: March 26, 2013

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

February 26, 2013

*Indicator direction refers to this month's index. If index is positive (negative), indicator is increasing (decreasing) or improving (worsening). If zero, indicator is unchanged.
**Number of months moving in current direction.
Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.

Texas Retail Outlook Survey

February 26, 2013

*Indicator direction refers to this month's index. If index is positive (negative), indicator is increasing (decreasing) or improving (worsening). If zero, indicator is unchanged.
**Number of months moving in current direction.
Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary.

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

February 26, 2013

Downloadable TSSOS chart: Low-res (72 dpi) | Hi-res (300 dpi)

Texas Retail Outlook Survey

February 26, 2013

Downloadable TROS chart: Low-res (72 dpi) | Hi-res (300 dpi)

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

February 26, 2013

Comments from Survey Respondents

These comments are from respondents' completed surveys and have been edited for publication.

Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation

• Higher fuel prices are increasing the cost to provide service.

Securities, Commodity Contracts, and Other Financial Investments and Related Activities

• In the last couple of months business activity has slowed. This continued into February.

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

• We have several federal contracts, so we are waiting for a congressional decision on March 1 concerning sequestration. That decision will impact our six-month forecast.
• Our business outlook has remained strong since the last quarter of 2012, but commercial activity has cooled some in 2013. Residential activity has remained strong due to the pent-up demand of the consumer, and we feel that commercial activity in 2013 will be in-line with 2012. The driving force of the market will be residential resale with the refinance market slowing throughout 2013. We have no plans to increase staff until we get a better sense of the direction our government is headed with the looming fiscal cliff issues.

Management of Companies and Enterprises

• Decreasing margins and increased regulatory expense have led to a reduction in staff.

Ambulatory Health Care Services

• The sequestration is a real worry since 80 percent of our revenue is from Medicare and payments to health care providers will be reduced. Like every other employer, we are trying to determine the impact of the Affordable Care Act on our programs. We have a program in Louisiana that we will possibly have to shut down in 2014, leaving over 200 employees out of work (about 20 percent of our workforce).
• As medical providers, we will have a few stable months of reimbursement. However, unless Congress addresses the Medicare reimbursement, in January 2014 we will have to severely curtail future expansion and may even be subject to declining employment.
• Medicare reimbursement was cut related to the health reform effective Jan 1, 2013. An additional 6 percent cut will be implemented Jan. 1, 2014. This will have a devastating impact on our business since margins are already less than 2 percent

Nursing and Residential Care Facilities

• We provide health care services that depend on Medicaid and Medicare.
• Sequestration of Medicare funding through the federal budget is a matter of significant concern. Significant cost and revenue pressures exist in health care, and this will disrupt the business climate for health care in the next 12 to 18 months.

Accommodation

• We are waiting to see how a major new building and new RV park additions will fare over time.

Food Services and Drinking Places

• Our growth is coming from new restaurants in new markets. We have seen a sharp decline in same-store sales, year over year. We believe this is a result of the higher payroll taxes and late federal tax return filing, and thus, late refunds that most of our guests probably receive. We should know by March which one of these factors is the most critical as tax refunds hit customers’ bank accounts.
• We have not yet experienced all the negative effects of the increased taxes. We believe this increase will impact us in the next three to four months.
• Health care issues and costs will cripple our short- and medium-term growth plans.
• Sales have gotten even softer than they were in January. We are setting new lows, losing all the progress of the last couple years. The payroll tax increase and rising gasoline prices seem to be the most likely causes of the downturn. Working hours are down for both full-time and part-time employees. We are probably going to have more part-time hourly employees over the six-month horizon as we try to manage labor even tighter than we have in the past to control ever-rising costs. We expect to take a small price increase next month, probably less than 1 percent. Cost of goods sold slipped up about 0.3 percent over the last month from the previous month. We expect that to continue in coming months. Our outlook for both our company and the general level of business activity has definitely worsened for the present, and we see no reason to continue expecting things to get better within the six-month horizon.

Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods

• Decrease in sales from January is due to three fewer business days. The decrease in inventory in February and six months from now is our attempt to reduce our inventory of overstock and slow moving items.
• All of our estimates regarding “improved outlook” on growth and employment are contingent on the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives settling very difficult budgetary issues.

Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods

• Business was slower in January than expected, and February is off significantly from February 2011 and 2012. This has been unexpected. We will review it for the balance of the month of February and then take action if March does not improve.

Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers

• Our franchisor continues to struggle. Our industry is slightly better overall.
• We are blessed to be in Texas. It could be much worse.
• Auto business is off to a good start in 2013 and met expectations.

Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers

• Banks are starting to lighten up. That’s a good sign. We just hope they don't lighten up too much and then turn the spigot off like they did last time.

Food and Beverage Stores

• Improvement in the economy has lagged and seems to just be stagnant. We are fearful of the expanding discussions of regulation and forced spending by the government but hope the summer brings some growth.

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

Historical Data

Historical data can be downloaded dating back to January 2007.

Indexes

Download indexes for all indicators. For the definitions of all variables, see Data Definitions.

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey			Texas Retail Outlook Survey
Unadjusted			Unadjusted
Seasonally adjusted			Seasonally adjusted

All Data

Download indexes and components of the indexes (percentage of respondents reporting increase, decrease, or no change). For the definitions of all variables, see Data Definitions.

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey			Texas Retail Outlook Survey
Unadjusted			Unadjusted
Seasonally adjusted			Seasonally adjusted