2005 News Releases

For immediate release:
November 28, 2005

Media contact:
James Hoard
Phone: (214) 922-5307
e-mail: james.hoard@dal.frb.org

New Dallas Fed Measure Shows Positive Outlook for Texas Economy

DALLAS—A new monthly survey introduced today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicates an optimistic outlook for manufacturing activity in the state.

The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey reveals that general business activity, production and employment have consistently remained positive in the manufacturing sector over the past year and a half. The survey also suggests overall activity, output and employment will increase in six months.

The survey is based on manufacturers’ responses to questions about their Texas operations, including changes in production, orders, inventories, employees and capital expenditures. About 80 participants are asked whether the indicator has increased, decreased or remained unchanged. Responses cover changes over the previous month and expectations for six months into the future.

“Those operating on the front lines of business are often the first to see changes in economic conditions,” according to Fiona Sigalla, the Dallas Fed economist who led the team that developed the new measure. “By tapping into their real-time collective judgments, including observations about prospects for growth, the survey can provide more timely readings on the economy.”

The outlook survey also holds valuable information for the rest of the country because of Texas’ importance in manufacturing. The state produced $98 billion worth of manufactured goods in 2003, about 7 percent of the country’s output.

“The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey is the fifth such survey published by a Federal Reserve Bank, and each has become a valuable tool for providing insight into the economy,” Sigalla said.

More information—and regular monthly updates—can be found at www.dallasfed.org.

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