Conference on Price Measurement for Monetary Policy
May 24–25, 2007
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Organizers: Jim Dolmas and Mark Wynne, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas David Altig and Michael Bryan, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

In recent years, central banks have paid greater attention to the measurement issues associated with the attainment of price stability. Two measurement issues in particular stand out: disentangling transitory movements in inflation due to oil prices and other shocks that are largely beyond the control of central banks from persistent changes in inflation that are determined by monetary policy; and measuring the inflation expectations of households, firms and financial market participants. These issues will be the subject of a research conference jointly organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas on May 24 and 25, 2007 at the Dallas Fed.

The invited audience of scholars and central bankers will hear papers by distinguished academics and economists on a wide variety of issues related to price measurement and its effects. Authors and discussants include those from a number of universities, Federal Reserve Banks, the Board of Governors and representatives from the central banks from Canada, Australia, Mexico, Poland and the European Central Bank. Fed Governor Frederic S. Mishkin will give the dinner address.

Thursday, May 24

8.30 a.m.		Continental Breakfast
9.20 a.m.		Introductory Remarks Richard W. Fisher, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Session 1
9:30 a.m.		Core Inflation I
		Chair: Jim Dolmas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
		Measuring Inflation Pressure and Monetary Policy response: A General Approach Applied to U.S. Data 1966–2001 Diana Weymark* and Mototsugau Shintani, Vanderbilt University
		Discussant: François Velde, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Discussion
10:30 a.m.		Break
11:00 a.m.		Core Inflation I
		Better Measures of Core Inflation Julie K. Smith, Lafayette College
		Discussant: Sharon Kozicki, Bank of Canada Discussion
Noon		Lunch
Session 2
1:00 p.m.		Core Inflation II
		Chair: Harvey Rosenblum, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
		Policy-Sensible Benchmark Core-Inflation Measures for the Euro Area and the U.S. Stefano Siviero* and Giovanni Veronese, Banca d’Italia
		Discussant: John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Discussion
		Core Inflation as Idiosyncratic Persistence: A Wavelet Approach to Measuring Core Inflation Richard Anderson,* Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Fredrik Andersson, Lund University; Jane Binner, Aston University; Thomas Elger, Lund University
		Discussant: Todd Clark, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Discussion
3:00 p.m.		Break
Session 3
3:30 p.m.		Core Inflation III
		Chair: Mark Wynne, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
		A Review of Core Inflation and an Evaluation of Its Measures Robert Rich* and Charles Steindel, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
		The Performance of Trimmed Mean Measures of Underlying Inflation Andrea Brischetto and Anthony Richards,* Reserve Bank of Australia
		Monitoring Inflation in a Low Inflation Environment Michael F. Bryan, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
		Commentary: Stephen Cecchetti, Brandeis University Commentary
5:30 p.m.		Reception
6:15 p.m.		Dinner
		Introduction Sandra Pianalto, President and CEO, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
		Speaker Estimating Potential Output Frederic S. Mishkin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Friday, May 25

7.30 AM		Continental Breakfast
Session 4
8:00 a.m.		Measuring Inflation Expectations I
		Chair: David Altig, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
		Tips from TIPS: The Informational Content of Treasury Inflation Protected Security Prices Stefania D’Amico,* Don H. Kim and Min Wei, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
		Discussant: George Pennacchi, University of Illinois Discussion
		Inflation Risk Premia in the Term Structure of Interest Rates Peter Hördahl, Bank for International Settlements, and Oreste Tristani,* European Central Bank
		Discussant: Mikhail Chernov, London Business School Discussion
10:00 a.m.		Break
Session 5
10:30 a.m.		Measuring Inflation Expectations II
		Chair: Mark Sniderman, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
		What Can Four Decades of Probabilistic Inflation Forecasts Tell Us About Inflation Risks? Juan Angel García* and Andrés Manzanares, European Central Bank
		Discussant: Alina Carare, International Monetary Fund Discussion
		Inflation Expectations and Uncertainty: An Analysis Based on the ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters Carlos Bowles, Roberta Friz, Veronique Genre, Geoff Kenny, Bettina Landau, Aidan Meyler* and Tuomas Rautanen, European Central Bank
		Discussant: Carlos Capistrán, Banco de México Discussion
12:30 p.m.		Lunch
Session 6
1:30 p.m.		Measured, Perceived and Expected Inflation at the Consumer Level
		Chair: Michael Bryan, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
		Consumer Inflation Expectations: Usefulness of Survey-Based Measures—A Cross-Country Study Ryszard Kokoszczynski*, Tomasz Lyziak and Ewa Stanislawska, Narodowy Bank Polski
		Discussant: Stefan Palmqvist, Sveriges Riksbank Discussion
		Assessing the Gap Between Observed and Perceived Inflation in the Euro Area: Is the Credibility of the HICP at Stake? Luc Aucremanne, Marianne Collin* and Thomas Stragier, Nationale Bank van België
		Discussant: Benoît Mojon, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Discussion
3:30 p.m.		Conference End
*Denotes presenter on multiple-author papers.