Excerpts from Remarks on the Process
of Creative Destruction to the Fort Worth Chamber of Commerce
and the Fort Worth Petroleum Club, Leaders in Government
Series
Fort Worth, Texas
January 19, 2006
The views expressed are my
own and do not necessarily reflect official positions
of the Federal Reserve System.
Long ago, the case for competition
was articulated by such economists as Adam Smith and
David Ricardo. At a private dinner last night, Chairman
Greenspan reminded a group of us that Smith and Hume
and Ricardo and Malthus and Keynes were all British,
and it is to our British brethren that we owe our key
understanding of economic principles. I would also draw
on my own alma mater, the TCU of the East—Harvard—to
credit one other economist for insights that put today’s
world in perspective: a Czech educated in Vienna who
taught at Harvard in the ’40s, Joseph Schumpeter.
Schumpeter articulated the concept of “creative
destruction.” Let me read you three excerpts from
two of Schumpeter's seminal works.
First, from Capitalism, Socialism,
and Democracy: “The fundamental impulse that
sets and keeps the capitalist engine in motion comes
from the new consumers’ goods, the new methods
of production or transportation, the new markets, the
new forms of industrial organization that capitalist
enterprise creates.”
From that same page: “The
opening up of new markets, foreign or domestic, and
the organizational development from the craft shop and
factory…illustrate the same process of industrial
mutation…that incessantly revolutionizes the economic
structure from within, incessantly destroying the old
one, incessantly creating a new one. This process of
creative destruction is the essential fact of capitalism.
It is…what every capitalist concern has got to
live in.”
And from volume 1 of Schumpeter’s
Business Cycles: “A railroad through
new country, i.e., a country not yet served by railroads,
as soon as it gets into working order upsets all conditions
of location, all cost calculations, all production functions
within its radius of influence; and hardly any ‘ways
of doing things’ which have been optimal before
remain so afterward.”
String the key operative phrases
of those three citations together and you get the plot
of this story, the plot of globalization: “The
opening up of new markets, foreign or domestic . . .
revolutionizes the economic structure, . . . destroying
the old one, . . . creating a new one. . . . [It] upsets
all conditions of location, all cost calculations, all
production functions, . . . and hardly any ways of doing
things which have been optimal before remain so afterward.”
The master of creative destruction
of syntax, Yogi Berra, put it more eloquently: Once
you open new markets, “History just ain’t
what it used to be.”
Globalization and the emergence
of Chinese and Indian and other new competition is “creative
destruction” writ large. We cannot hide from it.
We can only rise to the occasion, channel it and adapt
in order to benefit from it, rather than succumb to
it.
I submit to you that the country
that took in my father and mother—the land that
made me possible—is flexible and dynamic and bold
enough to succeed and, indeed, prosper from what Steve
Roach of Morgan Stanley calls “the heat of China’s
emergence.” We will do so as long as the Federal
Reserve does its job of ensuring the monetary backdrop
for sustained non-inflationary economic growth and as
long as our political leaders refrain from fiscal promiscuity
or from false remedies such as protectionism. I will
do my part to ensure the former. You must do yours to
ensure the latter with those you elect to represent
you.
It will be more difficult for
the other developed economic powers of the world to
cope with the “Chinese heat.” In my book,
the recent German elections were about preventing a
hollowing out of the German economy: Now Chancellor
Merkel, a woman who understands instinctively the shortcomings
of socialism, must lead Germany through a tectonic transformation.
France’s old political elite have resisted adapting,
but new political actors are grappling with it, and
time will tell if the French have the wherewithal to
survive as a linchpin of the European economy.
Italy, the third European economic
power, is also in need of radical transformation. At
present, it is the English-speaking nations—England,
Ireland, Australia, New Zealand and the U.S. (and, to
give credit where credit is due, the Scandinavians and
the Spaniards)—that are adapting best.
Which brings us to Japan and the
current turmoil on the Japanese stock exchange and the
issue of Livedoor and its CEO, Takafumi Horie.
I met Horie-san in 2003, when,
if memory serves, his company’s shares were trading
at 12 yen. They rose to over 700 yen before their recent
drop to 496. I have no idea if Horie-san’s accounting
practices are valid or not. The reason I mention this
matter is by way of illustrating adaptation.
I lived in Tokyo in 1990 and ran
my portfolio out of Nomura’s offices there while
my oldest son played baseball in the Tokyo Junior Boys
League. Perhaps because of that, when I was named deputy
U.S. trade representative, I was appointed co-chairman,
alongside the deputy foreign minister of Japan, of the
Commission on Competition and Deregulation, a device
thought up by President Clinton and Prime Minister Hashimoto
to bring about structural change in the Japanese economy.
I served in that capacity for three years. Together,
we engineered the initial restructuring of everything
from the laws governing the size of retail stores to
the electricity distribution system to the deregulation
of telecommunications to the rules of corporate governance.
The latter dealt with intricate details such as audit
committee composition, the roles of directors and so
on. I mention this to underscore only that I know enough
about Japanese business practices and ethics so as to
be dangerous!
Here is the point: From my personal
perspective, the thing to watch in Japan is not whether
Mr. Horie is good or bad. Or whether Fujitsu or any
other company gets a further contract to improve the
capacity of the Tokyo Stock Exchange, as discussed in
this morning’s Financial Times. The issue
is how the Japanese deal with the situation
and what their remedies tell us about their capacity
to change and adapt a great and noble society that rose
up from the ashes to become the world’s second-largest
economy.
There is a dynamic tension in
Japan today. Prime Minister Koizumi has taken on the
old political dinosaurs. Young entrepreneurs gathered
in the new office buildings in the Roppongi Hills area
of Tokyo and elsewhere have challenged the tightly interwoven
culture of the old Japanese corporate hierarchy. Foreign
investment has positioned itself for a sea change in
Japan’s direction.
We will learn a great deal
about whether Japan has made the turn by how they handle
Livedoor. If there is even a hint that the old order
still has the power to stifle a “Roppongi Hills
Tribe” entrepreneur because he dresses funny or
is a college dropout or had the nerve to attempt to
buy a baseball team or attempt a takeover of Nippon
Broadcasting (assuming his tactics were legal and legitimate),
then the Japanese authorities may well risk skepticism
about their capacity to adapt to the demands of globalization
and the creative destruction of the old order. If, on
the other hand, they dispatch with the legitimate foibles
of Horie or any other business operator in a manner
that shows the rule of law, and practice, is geared
to encouraging legitimate vehicles for creative destruction
along Schumpeterian lines, then we will know that the
Japanese are well on their way to joining us in handling
“the heat of China's emergence.”
| About
the Author
Richard W. Fisher
is president and CEO of the Federal Reserve
Bank of Dallas. |
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