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What's New—The Most Recent Additions to the Dallas Fed Website

2009

11/3   Term Auction Facility
Read more On November 2, 2009, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $25 billion in 70-day credit through its term auction facility. The results of the auction are listed on the Board's website.Read more
10/30   Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
The trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for September was an annualized 0.6 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for September was 1.4 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 1.5 percent.Read more Read more
10/26   Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Read more Texas factory activity declined in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index—a key indicator of current manufacturing activity—edged further into negative territory, suggesting output in October contracted after remaining stable in September.Read more
10/23   Chairman Bernanke on the Record
"Although regulators can do a great deal on their own to improve financial regulation and oversight, the Congress also must act. We have seen numerous instances when weaknesses and gaps in the regulatory structure itself contributed to the crisis."Read more Read more
10/22   Houston Economic Update
Read more Economic recovery seems to be taking root more slowly in Houston than in the U.S. Both establishment employment and industrial production are good coincident indicators, but neither one is telling a strong story for Houston. Annualized job growth has hovered between –3 and –4 percent for six months, and the Houston Purchasing Managers' Index continues to show no growth in local production. Sales just turned up, perhaps pointing to production gains ahead.Read more
10/21   Dallas Beige Book

The Federal Reserve System's latest Beige Book survey has been released. The Dallas Beige Book, along with a link to the national summary and reports from other Federal Reserve Districts, is available online.Read more

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10/19   Chairman Bernanke on the Record
Read more "Early this year, with many of the Asian economies in freefall, a quick recovery seemed difficult to imagine, but recent data from the region suggest that a strong rebound is, in fact, under way. Although the regional economy continued to contract in the first months of 2009, it expanded at an impressive 9 percent annual rate in the second quarter.... At this point, while risks to the economic outlook certainly remain, Asia appears to be leading the global recovery."Read more
10/19   Term Auction Facility

October 19, 2009, the Federal Reserve will offer $75 billion in 28-day credit through its term auction facility. Additional information regarding the auction is listed on the Board's website.Read more

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10/14   New Working Papers from the Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute
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State-Dependent Pricing, Local-Currency Pricing, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Institute—This paper presents a two-country DSGE model with state-dependent pricing as in Dotsey, King, and Wolman (1999) in which firms price-discriminate across countries by setting prices in local currency.Read more

A Model of International Cities: Implications for Real Exchange Rates—We develop a model of cities each inhabited by two agents, one specializing in manufacturing, the other in retail distribution. The distribution sector represents the physical transformation of all internationally traded goods from the factory gate to the final consumer.Read more

10/13   Quarterly Energy Update

Oil Prices RecoverOil prices have hovered around $70 per barrel for two months. While up more than 50 percent this year, prices are still more than 30 percent below year-ago levels. Natural gas has rebounded from its recent lows, but oil continues to trade at a significant premium on an energy content basis.Read more

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10/8   Chairman Bernanke on the Record
Read more "Overall, the Federal Reserve has a wide range of tools for tightening monetary policy when the economic outlook requires us to do so. We will calibrate the timing and pace of any future tightening, together with the mix of tools, to best foster our dual objectives of maximum employment and price stability."Read more
10/8   National Economic Update

Optimism Amid Uncertainty—As we enter the final quarter of 2009, a number of important indicators are beginning to show expansion, suggesting that the trough of the current contraction may have come in the second quarter of this year. However, not all incoming information has been positive. Some data suggest that any optimism should be tempered, that this fledgling recovery has a long way to go before the economy achieves stability, and that the key word moving forward is "uncertainty."Read more

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10/7   New Working Papers
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Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper

Global, Local, and Contagious Investor Sentiment—In this paper, the authors construct indexes of investor sentiment for six major stock markets and decompose them into one global and six local indexes.Read more

Research Department Working Papers

How Robust Are Popular Models of Nominal Frictions?This paper analyzes three popular models of nominal price and wage frictions to determine which best fits post-war U.S. data.Read more

Improving the ACCRA U.S. Regional Cost of Living IndexThe American Chamber of Commerce Research Association (ACCRA) index is used by business and government organizations and the media to to rank living standards and real wages across U.S. cities. In this study we reduce the aggregation bias in the index by calculating national average prices for the 59 item prices using population weights instead of the equal weight formula used by ACCRA. Read more

10/6   Regional Economic Update

Stabilization Continues, but Recovery Will Take Time—The Eleventh District economy continues to show signs of stabilization; however, downside risks could hamper growth. Household financial stress and continued softness in the labor market are suppressing consumer spending, and weakness in the energy sector due to low natural gas prices remains a drag on the Texas economy. Commercial real estate is an area of concern and will be for some time.Read more

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10/6   Term Auction Facility
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On October 5, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $50 billion in 70-day credit through its term auction facility. The results of the auction are listed on the Board's website.Read more

10/5   International Economic Update

The Good, the Bad and the Recovery—There are positive signals in the international data, although trouble spots still exist. Emerging markets were showing strong growth in the second quarter. Some advanced economies began growing as well. However, unemployment is rising in most countries, and credit growth in Europe is stagnant. Inflation remains low (negative in some cases) in advanced economies.Read more

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10/1   Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
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The trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for August was an annualized 1.3 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for August was 4.2 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 1.1 percent.Read more

10/1   Chairman Bernanke on the Record

"For purposes of both effectiveness and accountability, the consolidated supervision of an individual firm... is best vested with a single agency. However, the broader task of monitoring and addressing systemic risks...may exceed the capacity of any individual supervisor. Instead, we should seek to marshal the collective expertise and information of all financial supervisors to identify and respond to developments that threaten the stability of the system as a whole. "Read more

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9/30   Economic Letter
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"Fed Policy in the Financial Crisis: Arresting the Adverse Feedback Loop" explores how the Fed's recent policy actions have slowed the adverse feedback loop that began when global financial turmoil ended a boom partly fueled by risky mortgage lending.Read more

9/29   Excerpts from Richard W. Fisher's Remarks Before the Texas Christian University Business Network of Dallas

"I have faith my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee will stand and deliver in a timely way. And I expect that when it comes time to tighten monetary policy, my colleagues and I will move with an alacrity that, if needed, will be equal in speed and intensity to that with which we pursued monetary accommodation."Read more

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9/28   Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
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Texas factory activity showed the first signs of bottoming out in September, according to the business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key indicator of current manufacturing activity, came in close to zero as the number of companies seeing increases and decreases was nearly equal. Most indexes of current activity improved, continuing a trend that began in spring.Read more

9/23   FOMC Statement

The FOMC will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.Read more

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9/22   Economic Letter
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"TALF: Jump-Starting the Securitization Markets" finds that new securitization issues increased and risk spreads declined after the TALF began operations. While securitization activity might not grow as rapidly as earlier in this decade, even a smaller, more homogenized securitization sector is important for reviving lending for both consumers and small businesses and for contributing to an economic recovery.Read more

9/22   Term Auction Facility

On September 21, 2009, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $75 billion in 28-day credit through its term auction facility. The results of the auction are listed on the Board website.Read more

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9/14   Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper
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Can Long-Horizon Forecasts Beat the Random Walk Under the Engel-West Explanation?—Engel and West (2005) argue that as the discount factor gets closer to one, present-value asset pricing models place greater weight on future fundamentals. Consequently, current fundamentals have very weak forecasting power and exchange rates appear to follow approximately a random walk. In this paper, the authors connect the Engel-West explanation to the studies of exchange rates with long-horizon regressions.Read more

9/11   Houston Economic Update

The U.S. economy appears to be turning the corner toward growth and recovery, and oil prices have bounced back to near $70 per barrel. The Houston economy reacted to this news with fewer job losses in June and July. The energy picture remains mixed, however, as natural gas prices have slid to the lowest levels since 2002.Read more

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9/9   Dallas Beige Book
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The Federal Reserve System's latest Beige Book survey has been released. The Dallas Beige Book, along with a link to the national summary and reports from other Federal Reserve Districts, is available online.Read more

9/9   Remarks Before the 55th Annual Meeting of the North Dallas Chamber of Commerce

"As to the Federal Reserve reducing its balance sheet so as not to monetize the excess reserves waiting to be converted to bank loans to the private sector, I have been very clear: Given the lag between the time monetary policy is initiated and when it impacts the economy, that wind-down process needs to begin as soon as there are convincing signs that economic growth is gaining traction and that the lending capacity of the banking system is capable of expansion."Read more

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9/9   Term Auction Facility
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On September 8, 2009, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $75 billion in 84-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. The results of the auction are listed on the Board's website.Read more

9/8   Entrepreneurship in the Changing Economy: From Survival to Sustainability—Community Affairs Event
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October 14, 2009 Dallas Office, Houston Branch, San Antonio Branch; November 4, 2009 El Paso Branch—This forum will examine the importance of entrepreneurship to the economy, challenges that small businesses face in the current recession and strategies and tools that organizations are using to support and grow entrepreneurship. Read more

9/8   Term Auction Facility

On September 8, 2009, the Federal Reserve will offer $75 billion in 84-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. Additional information regarding the auction is listed on the Board's website.Read more

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9/3   Speech by Richard W. Fisher
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Post-Traumatic Slack Syndrome and the Economic Outlook (With Thanks to Finn Kydland, Dolly Parton and John Kenneth Galbraith)—"I envision an output path going forward from here that looks something like a check mark, with the Johnny Mercer effect giving us a near-term snapback from the short, intense downstroke, followed by a transition to a long period of slower growth corresponding to the elongated side of the mark."Read more

9/3   International Economic Update

Ailing Global Economy Limps Toward Recovery—The outlook for U.S. and global growth remains uncertain, but the prospects have improved somewhat. The banking sector appears to have stabilized, but significant levels of slack have accumulated during the current recession (especially in the advanced economies), contributing to the perception that inflation may remain below its long-run trend for a while. Read more

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9/1   Southwest Economy
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Mexico’s Año Horrible: Global Crisis Stings Economy—Despite being hit hard by a severe global recession, a crackdown on drug cartels, a flu epidemic and trade disputes with the U.S, Mexico has managed to avoid a full-blown crisis, thanks to its efforts to reduce financial vulnerability and deal with several economic shocks.Read more

Rising Protectionist Threat Creates Risks for Texas—Any significant trade restrictions imposed by the U.S. or other countries, especially Latin American nations, could hurt Texas' exports.Read more

On the Record: Taking the Economy's Pulse at Midyear—Four Dallas Fed regional economists update the state's economic performance in 2009. Highlights include employment, manufacturing, housing and energy.Read more

Restoring Banking's Safety Net: Deposit Insurance's Steeper Cost— FDIC premiums are rising for banks in the Eleventh Federal Reserve District—but not as much as they are for institutions in the rest of the country.Read more

8/31   Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Declines in Texas Factory Activity Continue to Moderate, Six-Month Outlook Positive—Results of the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey suggest that factory activity continued to contract at a slower pace in August.Read more

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8/28   Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
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The trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for July was an annualized 0.1 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for July was 0.4 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 1.2 percent.Read more

8/28   Term Auction Facility

The Federal Reserve on Friday announced that the amounts of Term Auction Facility (TAF) credit offered at each of the two auctions in September will be reduced to $75 billion from $100 billion in August. Specifically, the Federal Reserve will offer $75 billion of 84-day credit on Tuesday, September 8, and $75 billion of 28-day credit on Monday, September 21.Read more

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8/25   Statement by Chairman Bernanke on his Renomination by President Obama
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"The Federal Reserve, like other economic policymakers, has been challenged by the unprecedented events of the past few years. We have been bold or deliberate as circumstances demanded, but our objective remains constant: to restore a more stable economic and financial environment in which opportunity can again flourish, and in which Americans' hard work and creativity can receive their proper rewards."Read more

8/25   Term Auction Facility

On August 24, 2009, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $100 billion in 28-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. The results of the auction are listed on the Board's website.Read more

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8/24   National Economic Update
Read more A New Beginning? Recent data revisions show that output fell much more steeply last year than was first thought. Newly available monthly indicators suggest, though, that the downturn will soon end, or has in fact already ended. Production is stabilizing, new orders are rising, and firms are making progress in controlling their inventories. Long-leading financial indicators signal that growth is likely through at least the end of 2009.Read more
8/24   Term Auction Facility

On August 24, 2009, the Federal Reserve will offer $100 billion in 28-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. Additional information regarding the auction is listed on the Board's website.Read more

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8/21   Chairman Bernanke on the Record
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"After contracting sharply over the past year, economic activity appears to be leveling out, both in the United States and abroad, and the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good."Read more

8/19   Neighborhood Stabilization Program
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development is disbursing $178 million of Neighborhood Stabilization Pro gram (NSP) funds to Texas. Local governments are receiving $76 million, and $102 million is going to the Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs, which represents the state. This article gives an overview of the NSP program and describes how Texas cities and counties are using NSP funds.Read more Read more
8/19   Regional Economic Update
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Further Evidence of Stabilization in Texas Economy—The Eleventh District economy has displayed evidence of further stabilization. Recent data and anecdotal reports indicate the Texas economy is flattening at subdued levels, with some hope of improvement toward the end of the year.Read more

8/13   Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Papers
European Hoarding: Currency Use Among Immigrants in Switzerland—Do immigrants have a higher demand for large denominated banknotes than natives? This study examines whether cash orders for CHF 1000 notes, a banknote not used for daily transactions, is concentrated in Swiss cities with a high foreign-to-native ratio.Read more Read more
8/12   Staff Papers
Read more Excluding Items from Personal Consumption Expenditures Inflation—Core inflation measures constructed by excluding particularly volatile items from the price index have a long history. The most common such measures are indexes excluding the prices of food and energy items. This paper attempts to shed some statistical light on the impact of excluding certain items from the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index.Read more
8/12   FOMC Statement
The FOMC will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.Read more Read more
8/11   Term Auction Facility
Read more On August 10, 2009, the Federal Reserve conducted an auction of $100 billion in 84-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. The results of the auction are listed on the Board's website.Read more
8/10   Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Papers
The Globalization and Monetary Policy Insitute has released three new working papers: "Has Globalization Transformed U.S. Macroeconomic Dynamics?" "Global Slack and Domestic Inflation Rates: A Structural Investigation for G-7 Countries" and "Should Monetary Policy 'Lean or Clean'?"Read more Read more
8/10   Term Auction Facility
On August 10, 2009, the Federal Reserve will offer $100 billion in 84-day credit through its Term Auction Facility. Additional information regarding the auction is listed on the Board's website.Read more Read more
8/10   Agricultural Survey
Read more Agricultural lenders responding to the second quarter survey report that persistent drought conditions have increased strain on the Eleventh District agricultural community. Ranchers in the driest parts of the District are liquidating their cattle herds at a loss because of limited water and forage availability and high supplemental feed costs.Read more
8/4   Houston Economic Update
Fundamentals are improving for the Houston economy, which seems to be responding to better news. The U.S. recession is apparently drawing to a close, with a wide range of measures pointing to a turnaround in the fall. Oil prices and a variety of other commodity prices have moved up in recent weeks, reacting to massive stimulus purchases out of China and to the approaching U.S. recovery.Read more Read more
8/4   Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE Postponed Until August 28
Read more Due to a comprehensive revision of personal consumption expenditures data by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has postponed the release of its Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate until August 28.Read more
8/3   Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper
Fiscal Stabilization with Partial Exchange Rate Pass-Through—This paper examines the role of fiscal stabilization policy in a two-country framework that allows for a general degree of exchange rate pass-through.Read more Read more

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