A list of articles published by members of the Dallas Fed Research staff.

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2005 Academic Publications

Social Security Personal-Account Participation with Government Matching
Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, July 2005
Gary V. Engelhardt and Anil Kumar
Abstract: This paper examines the potential impact of government matching contributions on personal-account participation in the President's Commission on Strengthening Social Security's Model 3 for Social Security reform. Given the government's choice of four plan-design parameters, the magnitude of the match is determined solely by the differential return personal-account assets receive above the notional return, referred to as the "personal-account premium", akin to the equity premium. The impact of matching on personal-account participation is simulated for older workers (ages 40 to 65) in the first wave of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) using empirical estimates from a structural model of the impact of employer matching on participation in corporate 401(k) plans. For a personal-account premium of three percentage points, which implies a match rate of 7.5% for middle- to lower-income workers, the simulations imply that 72% of mid-career and older workers would participate in voluntary personal accounts. The response of participation to matching is very inelastic; it seems not unlikely that participation by mid-career and older workers would achieve the mid-range assumption by the Commission of 67%. There is substantial heterogeneity in participation across subsets of older workers: participation would be the lowest for low-educated, minority, female, and unmarried mid-career and older workers.

Sarbanes-Oxley: Corporate Transparency or Cost Trap?
Journal of Financial Transformation, August 2005
Robert L. Formaini and Thomas F. Siems
Abstract: We examine the potential impact of the 2002 Sarbanes-Oxley Act on America’s future growth prospects and its traditional brand of capitalism. We conclude that while greater corporate governance is a worthy goal, policy should be aimed at reinvigorating the market for corporate control to discipline managers and directors, not to deter them from doing their jobs effectively.

Why Have US Households Increasingly Relied on Mutual Funds to Own Equity?
Review of Income and Wealth, September 2005
John V. Duca 
Abstract: U.S. households have increasingly used mutual funds to own equity outside of retirement accounts owing to two developments. The first is a decline in equity mutual fund loads, which are negatively correlated with stock ownership rates, which have doubled owing to greater ownership through mutual funds. The second is improved confidence in future family finances. Both effects are consistent with recent models of equity participation, in which lower asset transfer costs and lower income risk induce equity investing by middle-income households, who-in practice and owing to diversification considerations-are more likely to indirectly hold stocks through mutual funds.

Social Security: Tyranny of the Status Quo
Journal of Private Enterprise, Fall 2005
Thomas F. Siems
Abstract: This paper revisits Milton Friedman’s arguments against Social Security’s pay-as-you-go structure found in Capitalism and Freedom and makes a case for why personal accounts are now needed. The paper concludes that only a market-driven solution seems capable of resolving Social Security’s eminent long-run crisis.

Self-Selection among Undocumented Immigrants from Mexico
Journal of Development Economics 78, October 2005
Pia Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny
Abstract: This paper examines the effect of changes in migration determinants on the skill level of undocumented Mexican immigrants. We focus on the effect of changes in economic conditions, migrant networks, and border enforcement on the educational attainment of men who cross the border illegally. Results from hazard models using data from the Mexican Migration Project indicate that migrants are not negatively selected with regard to education. However, improvements in U.S. and Mexican economic conditions are associated with a decline in the average education of undocumented immigrants, and stricter border enforcement are associated with higher average skill levels.

Who Supplied My Cheese? Supply Chain Management in the Global Economy
Business Economics, October 2005 (winner of NABE’s 2005 Edmund A. Mennis Contributed Paper Award)
Thomas F. Siems
Abstract: Today, with an Internet connection and some specialized skills, individuals and companies located in the remotest ends of the earth can compete and collaborate globally. This paradigm shift has occurred as technological forces, the fracturing of political barriers, and a relentless drive for greater efficiencies changed how we work and where we work, ushering in the age of globalization in ways never imagined previously. While many factors can influence macroeconomic variables?including better monetary and fiscal policies, freer trade, and fewer economic shocks?evidence is presented here that better global supply chain management and a more global economy should not be overlooked. On the one hand, these new practices have likely helped to keep inflation lower, reduce economic volatility, strengthen productivity growth, and improve living standards. On the other hand, these new practices cause greater uncertainties and calls for protectionist policies, as outsourcing and offshoring move work to lower cost providers with little regard for geopolitical boundaries.