A list of articles published by members of the Dallas Fed Research staff.

2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 | 2000

2008 Academic Publications

On the Determinants of Optimal Border Enforcement
Economic Theory, February 2008
Pia Orrenius, Mark Guzman and Joe Haslag
Abstract: We extend the current immigration-enforcement literature by incorporating both the practice of people smuggling and a role for non-wage income into a two-country, dynamic general equilibrium model. We use the model economy to examine three questions. First, how does technological progress in the smuggling industry affect the level of migration and capital accumulation for a given level of enforcement? Second, do changes in border enforcement affect the level of migration, capital accumulation, and smuggling activity? Third, is the optimal level of enforcement sensitive to technological progress in the smuggling industry? We show that the government chooses to devote resources to border enforcement only if the deterrent effect on smugglers is large enough. Otherwise, it is not worth taxing host-country natives as the taxes paid will more than offset any income gain resulting from fewer migrants.

Labor Supply, Deadweight Loss and Tax Reform Act of 1986: A Nonparametric Evaluation Using Panel Data
Journal of Public Economics, February 2008 
Anil Kumar
Abstract: Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA 1986) has provided an invaluable source of variation in tax rates to study the effects of tax reforms on labor supply in the US. Most existing studies exploiting variation generated by TRA 1986 have used cross-sectional variation in tax rates or assumed a linear labor supply function or have not couched their analysis in a nonlinear budget set framework. This paper uses the drastic variation in the budget set induced by TRA 1986 as a source of identification and combines two novel approaches to estimate behavioral effects of tax reforms. I first use nonparametric estimation methods with nonlinear budget sets [Blomquist, Soren, Newey, W., 2002. Nonparametric estimation with nonlinear budget sets. Econometrica 70 (6), 2455-2480] to estimate a labor supply function, using waves of PSID just before and after TRA 1986. Nonparametric method developed in Hausman and Newey [Hausman, J., Whitney Newey, 1995. Nonparametric measurement of exact consumer's surplus and deadweight loss. Econometrica 63, 1145-76] is then applied to estimate the deadweight loss from TRA 1986. The nonparametric estimate of the compensated wage elasticity is 0.22.1 find that TRA 1986 had a small but positive effect on labor supply of men of about 2% at the sample mean. TRA 1986 was associated with robust reduction in deadweight loss from the pre-TRA 1986 level and this reduction is positively correlated with income and wages.

Regional Business Cycle Integration Along the US-Mexico Border
Annals of Regional Science, March 2008
Keith Phillips and Jesus Cañas  
Abstract: Because of the growing internationalization of the US economy, a literature has developed on the impacts of globalization on US industries and regions. In this paper we look at four MSAs that have a long history of integration with Mexico and test how their overall business cycles are connected to those of the broader economies that surround them. As globalization increases in the US, the lessons learned from these MSAs can be useful for cities trying to understand how globalization may impact them in the future. Results suggest that the border MSAs are significantly integrated with the broader economies that surround them but that the integration varies based on the structure of the local economy. Border MSAs that have large retail sectors that sell to Mexican nationals are more integrated with the Mexican economy, while El Paso, which has a close relationship with the maquiladora sector in Juarez, is more integrated with the US and Texas economies.

Money on the Table: Some Evidence on the Role of Liquidity Constraints in 401(k) Saving
Economics Letters, May 2008 
Gary V. Engelhardt and Anil Kumar
Abstract: Using Health and Retirement Study data on contributions, earnings, and pension plans, we examine the role of liquidity constraints in explaining why employees fail to take full advantage of employer matching contributions in 401 (k) plans, leaving "money on the table." 

Core Inflation: A Review of Some Conceptual Issues
Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Review, May-June 2008
Mark A. Wynne
Abstract: This paper reviews various approaches to the measurement of core inflation that have been proposed over the years using the stochastic approach to index numbers as a unifying framework. It begins with a review of how the concept of core inflation is used by the world's major central banks, including some of the inflation-targeting central banks. The author provides a comprehensive review of many of the measures of core inflation that have been developed over the years and highlights some of the conceptual and practical problems associated with them.

Stock Ownership and Congressional Elections: The Political Economy of the Mutual Fund Revolution
Economic Inquiry, July 2008
John V. Duca and Jason L. Saving 
Abstract: We find that higher stock ownership rates are linked to an upward shift in the Republican share of the House popular vote since the late 1980s, consistent with theories that property interests affect voting. To proxy for discontinuous stock ownership rates, we use equity mutual fund costs, which have fallen, are negatively correlated with stock ownership rates and the Republican vote share in the long run, and help explain short-run changes along with midterm elections, economic conditions, and presidential popularity Findings suggest that the major parties' shares of the House popular vote will fluctuate around 50% until other factors trigger a political realignment. 

The Effect of Minimum Wages on Immigrants' Employment and Earnings
Industrial and Labor Relations Review 6, July 2008
Pia Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny
Abstract: This study examines how minimum wage laws affect the employment and earnings of low-skilled immigrants and natives in the U.S. Minimum wage increases might have larger effects among low-skilled immigrants than among natives because, on average, immigrants earn less than natives due to lower levels of education, limited English skills, and less social capital. Results based on data from the Current Population Survey for the years 1994-2005 do not indicate that minimum wages have adverse employment effects among adult immigrants or natives who did not complete high school. However, low-skilled immigrants may have been discouraged from settling in states that set wage floors substantially above the federal minimum.

Deliverability and Regional Pricing in US Natural Gas Markets
Energy Economics, September 2008
Stephen P.A. Brown and Mine Yücel
Abstract: During the 1980s and early 90s, interstate natural gas markets in the United States made a transition away from the regulation that characterized the previous three decades. With abundant supplies and plentiful pipeline capacity, a new order emerged in which freer markets and arbitrage closely linked natural gas price movements throughout the country. After the mid-1990s, however, U.S. natural gas markets tightened and some pipelines were pushed to capacity. We look for the pricing effects of limited arbitrage through causality testing between prices at nodes on the U.S. natural gas transportation system and interchange prices at regional nodes on North American electricity grids. Our tests do reveal limited arbitrage, which is indicative of bottlenecks in the U.S. natural gas pipeline system.

What Drives Natural Gas Prices?
Energy Journal, 2008
Stephen P.A. Brown and Mine K. Yücel
Abstract: For many years, fuel switching between natural gas and residual fuel oil kept natural gas prices closely aligned with those for crude oil. More recently, however, the number of U.S. facilities able to switch between natural gas and residual fuel oil has declined, and over the past seven years, U.S. natural gas prices have been on an upward trend with crude oil prices but with considerable independent movement. Natural gas market analysts generally emphasize weather and inventories as drivers of natural gas prices. Using an error-correction model, we show that when these and other additional factors are taken into account, movements in crude oil prices have a prominent role in shaping natural gas prices. Our findings imply a continuum of prices at which natural gas and petroleum products are substitutes.