July 1990
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Economic Review was published until 1999.

Identifying Service-Sector Exports from Major Texas Cities
Robert W. Gilmer

Robert W. Gilmer uses a new analytical technique to explain why longtime rivals Dallas and Houston can coexist less than 250 miles apart. This new technique permits an unusually complete analysis of the role of services in the growth of cities. The analysis focuses on distinguishing services that generate growth as exports to national and international markets from services that are used by the city and its surrounding area.

As a case study, he analyzes service-sector exports from Houston, Dallas, Fort Worth, and San Antonio. Gilmer's approach depicts Dallas and Houston as complementing, rather than competing with, each other. Dallas is the distribution and financial center of the Southwest, while Houston is the nation's preeminent oil center.

The Texas Index of Leading Economic Indicators: A Revision and Further Evaluation
Keith R. Phillips

In this article, Keith R. Phillips revises the Texas index of leading economic indicators that he introduced two years ago. He does so in response to recent structural changes in the state economy and the availability of new data. The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas has produced the Texas leading index monthly since July 1988.

Using a newly developed technique for evaluating leading indexes, Phillips finds that the revised Texas leading index has performed well in predicting movements in the Texas economy since 1981. He also finds that monthly revisions in the leading index are generally small and that preliminary estimates are good predictors of final values. Together, these results indicate that the new Texas leading index can be a useful tool in improving forecasts of the state's dynamic economy.