May 1991
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Economic Review was published until 1999.

Money Growth, Supply Shocks, and Inflation
Joseph H. Haslag and D'Ann M. Ozment

Recently, economists have examined the monetarist and the expectations-augmented Phillips-curve models of inflation to determine which model is a better predictor of the inflation rate. These studies raise an important question: Does money growth contain information that is useful in predicting the inflation rate?

Joseph H. Haslag and D'Ann M. Ozment specify a general model of the inflation rate that encompasses both the Phillips-curve and the monetarist models. They find that their general, encompassing model is a better predictor of the inflation rate than either the monetarist model or the expectations-augmented Phillips-curve model of inflation. Furthermore, the authors find that changes in money growth play an important, independent role in predicting the inflation rate.

Modeling Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series
Nathan S. Balke

How predictable are real GNP, prices, and other macroeconomic data over long time horizons? The answer depends on the nature of their trends. In this article, Nathan S. Balke describes alternative models of trend for economic data, discusses the implications of these models for forecasting and business-cycle analysis, and reviews some of the existing evidence for and against various models of trend.

In addition, Balke conducts a case study of real GNP and the price level. He finds that a simple linear time trend may adequately reflect the long- run behavior of real GNP. The price level, on the other hand, appears to be affected by infrequent but dramatic events that have long-lasting effects. Consequently, the price level is much more difficult to forecast.