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Housing, Stability and the Macroeconomy: International Perspectives

November 14–15, 2013 · Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
(By invitation only)

Sponsored by
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, IMF Research Department and Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

Organizing committee:
Rabah Arezki (IMF), Thorsten Beck (Cass Business School, London), Robert DeYoung (University of Kansas), John Duca (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas), Prakash Loungani (IMF) and Anthony Murphy (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas).

The Great Recession interrupted a long boom in real house prices in many countries. In the U.S., the collapse in house prices and residential construction, the surge in mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures, as well as the dramatic tightening in mortgage standards and fall in household leverage played a major role in the recent financial crisis. Similar factors have affected a number of other countries. These developments have prompted a great deal of new research on housing and mortgage markets, macroeconomic models with housing credit channels, and macro-prudential regulation and macroeconomic stability.

To inform researchers and policymakers of these efforts and to foster future advances, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the IMF Research Department and the Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking sponsored a two-day conference to provide a venue for original theoretical and empirical studies on the macroeconomics of housing, focusing on the lessons learned from the crisis and outstanding issues that remain to be addressed.

Agenda

Thursday, November 14, 2013

8:15 a.m.

Registration and Continental Breakfast

8:45 a.m.

Welcome Remarks
Helen Holcomb, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Housing, Stability and the Macroeconomy: International PerspectivesPDF
Stijn Claessens, International Monetary Fund

9 a.m.

Paper Session 1
Chair: Anthony Murphy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

 

Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and House Prices: The Role of Financial FrictionsPDF
PresentationPDF
Alessandro Notarpietro*, Bank of Italy
Stefano Siviero, Bank of Italy

 

Discussion of Optimal Monetary Policy Rules and House Prices: The Role of financial FrictionsPDF
Discussant:
Zheng Liu, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

 

House Price Booms, Current Account Deficits and Low Interest Rates PDF
Presentation PDF
Andrea Ferrero*, Oxford University

 

Discussion of House Price Booms, Current Account Deficits and Low Interest Rates PDF
Discussant:
Edward Leamer, University of California, Los Angeles

11 a.m.

Paper Session 2
Chair: Thorsten Beck, Cass Business School and Tilburg University

 

Capital Inflows and the U.S. Housing Boom PDF
Presentation PDF
Filipa Sá*, King’s College, London
Tomasz Wieladek, Bank of England

 

Discussion of Capital Inflows and the U.S. Housing BoomPDF
Pedro Gete, Georgetown University

 

Macroprudential Policies and Housing Prices—A New Database and Empirical Evidence for Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe PDF
Presentation PDF
Enrica Detragiache, International Monetary Fund
Jérôme Vandenbussche*, International Monetary Fund
Ursula Vogel, Deutsche Bundesbank

 

Discussion of Macroprudential Policies and Housing Prices—A New Database and Empirical Evidence for CESEEPDF
Discussant:
Stefan Gerlach, Central Bank of Ireland

12:45 p.m.

Luncheon and Keynote Address 1
Housing, Leverage and Stability in the Wider EconomyPDF
Presentation PDF
David Miles, Bank of England

2 p.m.

Panel 1: Lessons Learned and Implications for Policy
Chair: John Duca, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

 

Panel:
Financial Stability and the Mortgage Market: Canada’s Policy FrameworkPDF
Allan Crawford, Bank of Canada
Real Estate Markets and Macroprudential Policy in EuropePDF
Philipp Hartmann, European Central Bank
An International Perspective for Mortgage Market ReformPDF
Dwight Jaffee, University of California, Berkeley
Housing Stability, Systemic Risk and SecuritizationPDF
Susan Wachter, University of Pennsylvania

4 p.m.

Paper Session 3
Chair: Prakash Loungani, International Monetary Fund

 

Capital Flows, Housing Prices and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Market Economies PDF
Presentation PDF
Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Bank of England
Luis Céspedes, Adolfo Ibáñez University, Chile
Alessandro Rebucci*, Johns Hopkins University

 

Discussion of Capital Flows, House Prices and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Market EconomiesPDF
Discussant:
Ken Kuttner, Williams College

 

Explaining House Price Dynamics: Isolating the Role of Non-Fundamentals PDF
Presentation PDF
Thao Le, National University of Singapore
David Ling*, University of Florida
Joseph Ooi, National University of Singapore

 

Discussion of Explaining House Price Dynamics: Isolating the Role of Non-FundamentalsPDF
Discussant:
Kevin Lansing, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

7 p.m.

Conference Reception and Dinner

Friday, November 15, 2013

8:15 a.m.

Paper Session 4
Chair: Rabah Arezki, International Monetary Fund

 

Supply Restrictions, Subprime Lending and Regional U.S. Housing Prices PDF
Presentation PDF
Andre Kallålk Anundsen, University of Oslo
Christian Heebøll*, University of Copenhagen

 

Discussion of Supply Restrictions, Subprime Lending and Regional US Housing PricesPDF
Discussant:
Andra Ghent, Arizona State University

 

Rushing into American Dream? House Prices, Timing of Homeownership, and Adjustment of Consumer CreditPDF
PresentationPDF
Sumit Agarwal, National University of Singapore
Luojia Hu*, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago
Xing Huang, Michigan State University

 

Discussion of Rushing into American Dream? House Prices, Timing of Homeownership, and Adjustment of Consumer CreditPDF
Discussant: Daniel Fetter, Wellesley College

10 a.m.

Keynote 2
Understanding Housing Bubbles in Light of Recent ExperiencePDF
Robert Shiller, Yale University

11:15 a.m.

Panel 2: Housing and Macroeconomics
Chair: Sony Kapoor, Re-Define and London School of Economics

 

Panelists:
Housing and MacroeconomicsPDF
Edward Leamer, University of California, Los Angeles
Housing and the Macro-Economy: Inflation and the Financial Accelerator PDF
John Muellbauer, University of Oxford
Will Housing Save the U.S. Economy?PDF
Amir Sufi, University of Chicago
Housing, Stability and the Macroeconomy: International PerspectivesPDF
Stijn Claessens, International Monetary Fund

12:30 p.m.

Lunch

1:45 p.m.

Paper Session 5
Chair: Robert DeYoung, University of Kansas and Journal of Money, Credit and Banking

 

Joint Dynamics of House Prices and Foreclosures PDF
PresentationPDF
Yavuz Arslan, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey
Bulent Guler*, Indiana University
Temel Taskin, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

 

Discussion of Joint Dynamics of House Prices and ForeclosuresPDF
Discussant:
Paul Willen, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

 

The Impact of Housing Markets on Consumer Debt: Credit Report Evidence from 1999 to 2012 PDF
PresentationPDF
Meta Brown*, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Sarah Stein, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Basit Zafir, Federal Reserve Bank of New York

 

Discussion of The Impact of Housing Markets on Consumer Debt: Credit Report Evidence from 1999 to 2012PDF
Discussant:
Karen Pence, Federal Reserve Board

3:15 p.m.

Closing Comments

*Presenter

Contact Information

For questions about the conference, please contact Magda Salazar at 214-922-5253 or magda.salazar@dal.frb.org.

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