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NAFTA at 20: Effects on the North American Market

June 5–6, 2014 · Houston Branch

Sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, U.S. International Trade Commission, Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada, Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía and El Colegio de México

The conference reviewed the economic impact of NAFTA on the United States, Canada and Mexico.

The two-day conference in Houston aimed to disentangle the economic effects due to NAFTA from the many other changes that have occurred since its implementation. Topics that experts from academia, government and multilateral institutions discussed included:

  • Growth, trade and productivity
  • Foreign direct investment and supply chains
  • Wages and employment

Agenda

Thursday, June 5

8 a.m.

Registration and Continental Breakfast

8:30 a.m.

Opening Remarks

 

Daron D. Peschel, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch
Irving A. Williamson, U.S. International Trade Commission
Mine K. Yücel, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

9 a.m.

Keynote Address

 

Moderator: Mark A. Wynne, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

The Challenge of Predicting the Impact of Trade ReformPDF
Timothy J. Kehoe, University of Minnesota and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

9:45 a.m.

Session 1: Trade and Welfare Effects

 

Moderator: José Romero Tellaeche, El Colegio de México

Trade and Welfare Effects of NAFTAPDF
Lorenzo Caliendo, Yale University
*Fernando Parro, Federal Reserve Board of Governors

Predicting the Effects of NAFTA: Now We Can Do It Better!PDF
Serge Shikher, U.S. International Trade Commission

10:45 a.m.

Session 2: Growth, Trade and Foreign Direct Investment

 

Moderator: Alan Deardorff, University of Michigan

Identifying The Effects of NAFTA on the U.S. Economy Between 1992 and 1998: a Decomposition Analysis PDF
*Peter B. Dixon, Victoria University
Maureen T. Rimmer, Victoria University

Foreign Direct Investment and Growth in Mexico: 1940–2013PDF
José Romero Tellaeche, El Colegio de México

11:45 a.m.

Lunch

 

Introduction
Jesus Cañas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Gone to Texas: Immigration and the Transformation of the Texas EconomyPDF
Pia M. Orrenius, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

1 p.m.

Session 3: Economic Effects of NAFTA and China on Mexico

 

Moderator: William Powers, U.S. International Trade Commission

International Competition and Industrial Evolution: Evidence From the Impact of Chinese Competition on Mexican MaquiladorasPDF
*Luis B. Torres Ruiz, Texas A&M University
Hale Utar, Bielefeld University

2 p.m.

Plenary Session

 

Moderator: Pia M. Orrenius, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

NAFTA: Retrospect and Prospect
Anne O. Krueger, Johns Hopkins University

2:45 p.m.

Session 4: Trade and Productivity Linkages

 

Moderator: Edward C. Skelton, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

The Impact of NAFTA on U.S. Labor MarketsPDF
*Justino De La Cruz, U.S. International Trade Commission
David Riker, U.S. International Trade Commission

The Long and Short of Empirical Evidence on the Impact of NAFTA on CanadaPDF
Eugene Beaulieu, University of Calgary

3:45 p.m.

Session 5: External Shocks and Trade Liberalization

 

Moderator: Serge Shikher, U.S. International Trade Commission

NAFTA and the Evolving Structure of Canadian Patterns of Trade and SpecializationPDF
*Richard Harris, Simon Fraser University
Nicolas Schmitt, Simon Fraser University

The Producer Welfare Effects of Trade Liberalization When Goods Are Perishable and Habit-Forming: The Case of AsparagusPDF
Peyton Ferrier, U.S. Department of Agriculture

5:15 p.m.

Reception

6 p.m.

Dinner

 

Introduction
Mine K. Yücel, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

North American Energy: A Clear Path Forward?PDF
Kenneth B. Medlock III, Rice University

7:30 p.m.

Adjourn

Friday, June 6

8 a.m.

Registration and Continental Breakfast

8:20 a.m.

Opening Remarks

 

Justino De La Cruz, U.S. International Trade Commission

8:30 a.m.

Keynote Address

 

Moderator: Mark A. Wynne, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

NAFTA and Mexican Industrial DevelopmentPDF
Eric A. Verhoogen, Columbia University

9:15 a.m.

Session 6: Rules of Origin, Border Crossing for Trucks

 

Moderator: André Downs, Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development, Canada

NAFTA Rules of Origin: Adaptation in North America and Emulation AbroadPDF
Antoni Estevadeordal, Inter-American Development Bank
*Jeremy T. Harris, Inter-American Development Bank

U.S.-Canada and U.S.-Mexico Border Crossing for Trucks: 20 Years After NAFTAPDF
*Alan Fox, U.S. International Trade Commission
Pilar Londoño-Kent, Londoño-Kent Associates

10:15 a.m.

Session 7: Trade Creation and Greenhouse Emission

 

Moderator: Alan Fox, U.S. International Trade Commission

Designing a Greenhouse Gas Emission Market for Mexico
Jaime Sempere, El Colegio de México

11:15 a.m.

Session 8: The Border Region and NAFTA

 

Texas Border in TransitionPDF
Moderator: Jesus Cañas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Income in the Border Region, 1993-2010PDF
James Gerber
, San Diego State University
Wage Convergence in MexicoPDF
Andre Varella Mollick
, University of Texas–Pan American

12:15 p.m.

Session 9: NAFTA and the North American Integration (working lunch)

 

Moderator: Richard Harris, Simon Fraser University

The North American Integration Model (NAIM): Description and Preliminary ResultsPDF
*Shenjie Chen, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development, Canada
*Peter B. Dixon, Victoria University
Catherine Milot, Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development, Canada
Maureen T. Rimmer
, Victoria University

1:45 p.m.

Session 10: The Future of NAFTA, Policy Perspective

 

Moderator:: Jesus Cañas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Justino De La Cruz, U.S. International Trade Commission
Alan Deardorff
, University of Michigan
Richard Harris
, Simon Fraser University
*Timothy J. Kehoe, University of Minnesota and Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
The Future of NAFTAPDF
José Romero Tellaeche
, El Colegio de México

2:45 p.m.

Closing Remarks

 

Jesus Cañas, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

3 p.m.

Adjourn


*Presenter
Contact Information

Contact Magda Salazar at 214-922-5253 or magda.salazar@dal.frb.org.

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