Economic Research Working Papers

Working papers from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas are preliminary drafts circulated for professional comment.

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2005 Working Papers

0511
Mutual Funds and the Evolving Long-Run Effects of Stock Wealth on U.S. Consumption
John V. Duca

Lower mutual fund loads have plausibly boosted the stock wealth elasticity of U.S. consumption by enhancing stock liquidity and arguably by inducing stock ownership among middle-income families, consistent with theory and cross-section data (Guiso, Haliassios, and Jappelli (2003), Haliassios (2002), Heaton and Lucas (1996, 2000), and Vissing-Jorgensen (2002)). In load-modified models, the stock wealth elasticity is declining in loads and more stable long-run wealth and income coefficients arise, especially controlling for mortgage refinancing and equity withdrawal activity. Modified models imply that the stock wealth elasticity has risen, while conventional models overestimate the wealth and underestimate the income elasticities of consumption.

0510
Ireland’s Great Depression
Alan Ahearne, Finn Kydland and Mark A. Wynne

We argue that Ireland experienced a great depression in the 1980s comparable in severity to the better known and more studied depression episodes of the interwar period. Using the business cycle accounting framework of Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2005), we examine the factors that lead to the depression and the subsequent recovery in the 1990s. We calculate efficiency, labor, investment and government wedges, and evaluate the contribution of each to the downturn and subsequent recovery. We find that the efficiency wedge on its own can account for a significant portion of the downturn, but predicts a stronger recovery in output. The labor wedge also helps account for what happened during the depression episode. We also find that the investment wedge played no role in the depression

0509
An Estimate of the Measurement Bias in the HICP
Mark A. Wynne

This paper provides an estimate of the measurement bias in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) that the European Central Bank uses to define price stability in the euro area. The estimate is based on a comparison of the rate of increase in consumer prices as measured by the HICP and the responses to a question about recent changes in the cost of living on the European Commission’s monthly Harmonised Consumer Survey (HCS). I find that the HICP may overstate the true rate of inflation by about 1.0 to 1.5 percentage points a year.

0508 (Revised January 2006)
Did 9/11 Worsen the Job Prospects of Hispanic Immigrants?
Pia M. Orrenius and Madeline Zavodny

This paper examines whether the economic aftermath of 9/11 had an adverse impact on the labor market outcomes of male immigrants from Latin America, who compose the bulk of undocumented foreign-born workers in the U.S. The crackdown on use of fraudulent Social Security numbers, increased requirements for government-issued identification, and other changes associated with greater focus on national security likely lowered the demand for foreign-born workers—particularly the undocumented—relative to natives after 9/11. The relative decline in demand for such workers could have negatively affected employment, hours worked, and earnings. Using Current Population Survey data and a difference-in-difference estimation technique, we find a negative impact after 9/11 on earnings and hours worked among recent male Hispanic immigrants vis-à-vis natives and a negative effect on employment, hours worked, and earnings vis-à-vis Hispanic immigrants who had been in the U.S. longer.

0507
Is It Is or Is It Ain't My Obligation? Regional Debt in a Fiscal Federation
Russell Cooper, Hubert Kempf, and Dan Peled

This paper studies the repayment of regional debt in a multiregion economy with a central authority: Who pays the obligation issued by a region? With commitment, a central government will use its taxation power to smooth distortionary taxes across regions. Absent commitment, the central government may be induced to bail out the regional government in order to smooth consumption and distortionary taxes across the regions. We characterize the conditions under which bailouts occur and their welfare implications. The gains to creating a federation are higher when the (government spending) shocks across regions are negatively correlated and volatile. We use these insights to comment on actual fiscal relations in three quite different federations: the U.S., the European Union and Argentina.

0506
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation
Jim Dolmas

Research over the past decade has led to improved measures of core inflation in the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. This paper discusses the application of some of the insights and techniques of that line of research to the Federal Reserve Bard of Governors’ preferred inflation gauge, the price index for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). The result is a new measure of core PCE inflation—the trimmed mean PCE—and a somewhat different characterization of the economy’s recent inflation experience.

Compared to the story told by the usual “excluding food and energy” measure, the trimmed mean PCE tells us that the lows reached in 2003 weren’t quite so low and that the highs reached in mid-2004 were really a bit higher. On a 12-month basis, the new measure suggests that core PCE inflation is currently about half a percentage point higher than what is being indicated by the “excluding food and energy” inflation rate.

0505
Nonparametric Estimation of the Impact of Taxes on Female Labor Supply
Anil Kumar

Econometric models with nonlinear budgets sets frequently arise in the study of impact of taxation on labor supply. Blomquist and Newey (2002) have suggested a nonparametric method to estimate the uncompensated wage and income effects when the budget set is nonlinear. This paper extends their nonparametric estimation method to censored dependent variables. The modified method is applied to estimate female wage and income elasticities using the 1985 and 1989 waves of PSID exploiting the drastic change in the complete budget set caused by TRA 1986 as a source of identification. I find evidence of downward bias in estimated elasticities if the nonlinearity in the budget set is ignored. The estimated wage elasticities range from 0.6 to 0.74 for total hours and from 0.26 to 0.29 on the intensive margin. The income elasticity estimates range from -0.4 to -0.67 overall and from -0.12 to -0.15 on the intensive margin.

0504
Lifecycle Consistent Estimation of Effect of Taxes on Female Labor Supply in the U.S.: Evidence from Panel Data
Anil Kumar

Very few existing studies have estimated female labor supply elasticities using a U.S. panel data set, though cross-sectional studies abound. Also, most existing studies have modeled female labor supply in the U.S. in a static framework. I make an attempt to fill the gap in this literature, by estimating a lifecycle-consistent specification with taxes, in a limited dependent variable framework, on a panel of married females from the PSID. Both parametric random effects and semiparametric fixed effects methods are applied. The estimate of compensated elasticity for females in the sample is 0.63 (with a standard error of 0.14). These estimates are fairly robust to the choice of both random effects and semiparametric fixed effect estimators and also to the choice of instruments for the endogenous net wage and virtual full income. I estimate exact deadweight loss from taxes and find that deadweight loss from a 20 percent increase in the marginal tax rate is about 18 percent of tax revenue collected, evaluated at the sample mean.

0503
Industrial Structure and Economic Complementarities in City Pairs on the Texas-Mexico Border
Robert W. Gilmer and Jesus Cañas

The U.S.–Mexico border provides a number of examples of pairs of neighboring cities, one in the U.S. and the other in Mexico. The advent of the North American Industrial Classification System provides a new opportunity to look at these cities using a common industrial classification system. Using U.S. data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Bureau of Economic Analysis, and comparable information from the 1999 Mexican economic census, we were able to compare employment by industry sector in city pairs that are located along the Texas–Mexico border: El Paso–Juarez, Laredo–Nuevo Laredo, Brownsville–Matamoros, and McAllen–Reynosa.

This paper focuses on the distribution of employment in border city pairs. It is primarily descriptive in nature, but looks at industrial structure from several perspectives. First, we look at each city as part of its own national economy, then as part of the combined U.S.–Mexico economy. Second, we demonstrate that each city-pair has a distribution of employment by industry that complements the sister city. Different wage levels, distinct legal and regulatory systems and unlike stages of development provide each city with unique opportunities to specialize in the local marketplace. Finally, we interpret the role of these cities as part of a combined US-Mexico economy. The chief economic role played by all city-pairs is that of a manufacturing center, driven largely by maquiladora activity and its support industries.

0502
Business Cycle Coordination Along the Texas–Mexico Border
Keith R. Phillips and Jesus Cañas

In this paper we use a dynamic single-factor model originally due to Stock and Watson [18, 19] to measure the business cycle in four Texas border Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) and Mexico. We then measure the degree of economic integration between border cities, the US, Texas, and Mexican economies using correlation, spectral and cluster analysis. Results suggest border MSAs are significantly integrated with the broader economies and that major changes have occurred in these relationships since 1994, the year in which NATFA was enacted and the time maquiladora industry began to accelerate.

0501
VAR Estimation and Forecasting When Data Are Subject to Revision
N. Kundan Kishor and Evan F. Koenig

Conventional VAR estimation and forecasting ignores the fact that economic data are often subject to revision many months or years after their initial release. This paper shows how VAR analysis can be modified to account for such revisions. The proposed approach assumes that government statistical releases are efficient with a finite lag. It takes no stand on whether earlier revisions are “noise” or “news.” The technique is illustrated using data on employment and the unemployment rate, real GDP and the unemployment rate, and real GDP and the GDP/consumption ratio. In each case, the proposed procedure outperforms conventional VAR analysis and the more-restrictive methods for handling the data-revision problem that are found in the existing literature.

2005 Center for Latin American Economics Working Papers

0205
Is Tighter Fiscal Policy Expansionary under Fiscal Dominance? Hypercrowding Out in Latin America
William C. Gruben and John H. Welch

We test for hypercrowding out as a signal of market concerns over fiscal dominance in five Latin American countries. Hypercrowding out occurs when fiscally dominated governments’ domestic credit demands are perceived as so intrusive to a nation’s financial system that a move towards fiscal surplus lowers interest rates and increases growth. We sample five Latin American countries to test for these relationships. Judged by the results of vector error correction models, three nations test clearly positive, suggesting market concern despite their recent efforts towards fiscal balance.

0105
Financial Crises and Total Factor Productivity
Felipe Meza and Erwan Quintin

Total factor productivity (TFP) falls markedly during financial crises, as we document with recent evidence from Mexico and Asia. These falls are unusual in magnitude and present a difficult challenge for the standard small open economy neoclassical model. We show in the case of Mexico’s 1994-95 crisis that the model predicts that inputs and output should have fallen much more than they did. Using models with endogenous factor utilization, we find that capital utilization and labor hoarding can account for a large fraction of the TFP fall during the crisis. However, these models also predict that output should fall significantly more than in the data. Given the behavior of TFP, the biggest challenge may not be explaining why output falls so much following financial crises, but rather why it falls so little.