Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Results Summary

Historical data are available from June 2004 to the most current release month.

*Shown is the number of consecutive months of expansion or contraction in the underlying indicator. Expansion is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Contraction is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

**Shown is the number of consecutive months of improvement or worsening in the underlying indicator. Improvement is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Worsening is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

†Added to survey in January 2018.

Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary, with the exception of the outlook uncertainty index, which does not yet have a sufficiently long time series to test for seasonality.

Production Index

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Comments from Survey Respondents

These comments are from respondents’ completed surveys and have been edited for publication.

• Our order rate has decreased over the past month. We are only working four days on some of our equipment.
• Although we continue to see surges in new orders, there are still several uncertainties and key issues that give us pause on overall business conditions. While both low-skill and mid-skill jobs are nearly impossible to fill, this isn’t the only challenge manufacturing companies are facing. Continued talk of proposed rulemaking from the U.S. Department of Labor and Environmental Protection Agency give a vast majority of manufacturers concern. That coupled with evolving tax increases, inflationary woes and supply shortages simply do not seem conducive to any long-term growth confidence. The potential is there to realize significant post-COVID gains; however, the current administration is truly hindering the overall manufacturing sector with new regulatory and tax burdens.

• Lead times for some components are climbing (pumps, instrumentation and some coded vessel components).
• We see the general economic situation worsening, but our customers are still buying because the oil industry is still making money and they see a bright future even though they will not talk about it. Therefore, we have hired a few new people to support the business that is coming over the next couple of months.
• We are living in Alice in Wonderland ... it just gets worser and worser.
• Our company has been extremely fortunate to have developed a strong presence in the medical market, which is doing very well at the present time. However, our business in the electronics market is starting to contract.
• Workloads are increasing, but customers are still very slow to pay and do not agree to increases in pricing resulting from higher raw materials costs.

• We still have issues with items needed to produce, and lead time issues with processors and aluminum. It is causing a cash crunch.
• The personal electronics market shows signs of weakness and is expected to weaken further. Other markets, especially automobiles, remain strong. Inventory builds are reported throughout all channels.
• We have a critical supply component that we have not been able to procure for over six months, which has finally caused a partial shutdown on production for units that use that component.

• There is no optimism in the most positive outlook. Interest rate hikes will hit our industry hard. Poor federal polices and spending are just more economic “piling on.”

• We are beginning to see a slowdown in requests for bids on projects.

• We have seen a dramatic shift in consumer behavior and it is impacting our volume. Beginning in May, demand for our premium products started to wane as consumers shifted to less-expensive brands. This has accelerated as fuel and other costs have risen. We are taking aggressive steps to recoup the volume loss and are cutting expenses in order to hit our financial targets for the year. We are unsure of the duration of this shift in consumer behavior.
• There is a decline in optimism with regard to the business climate as well as our ability to stabilize it. The loss of domestic tranquility, the irresponsibility of governors and the Biden administration, and the loss of common defense and border security will have long-range and far-reaching consequences.

• Sales have started to slow this summer, as has our general outlook on business over the short and long term. Inflation and general uncertainty seem high with customers; as a luxury product [producer], we expect sales to fall as customers cut discretionary spending.

• Workforce shortages remain. Hiring is expensive or nonexistent. Customers are becoming more restless and looking for better service and price. Inflation is on everyone’s mind. It is not a healthy environment.
• We continue to be very busy; however, it feels like things are starting to slow down some, and I believe we will be slower in the coming months than we have been. It is very hard to tell what inflation with rising interest rates will do for discretionary spending, which drives a lot of the products we make.

Historical Data

Historical data can be downloaded dating back to June 2004.

Indexes

Download indexes for all indicators. For the definitions of all variables, see Data Definitions.

All Data

Download indexes and components of the indexes (percentage of respondents reporting increase, decrease, or no change). For the definitions of all variables, see Data Definitions.