Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Results summary

Historical data are available from June 2004 to the most current release month.

*Shown is the number of consecutive months of expansion or contraction in the underlying indicator. Expansion is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Contraction is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

**Shown is the number of consecutive months of improvement or worsening in the underlying indicator. Improvement is indicated by a positive index reading and denoted by a (+) in the table. Worsening is indicated by a negative index reading and denoted by a (–) in the table.

†Added to survey in January 2018.

Data have been seasonally adjusted as necessary, with the exception of the outlook uncertainty index, which does not yet have a sufficiently long time series to test for seasonality.

Production index

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Comments from survey respondents

These comments are from respondents’ completed surveys and have been edited for publication.

• There has been some improvement in orders, but it is spotty and material specific, and is not showing a broad trend that influences a six-month outlook.
• January and the start of February resulted in headwinds following a strong fourth quarter. Customers are decreasing inventories held and asking for better terms.

• After a slow start to the year, we saw a lot of new orders in late January and early February. Despite the talk of recession, we believe that we'll continue to grow.
• We are seeing all markets slow with the exception of automobiles. Personal electronics is in its third quarter of correction; all other markets (except automobiles) are in their second. We would expect most markets to correct in about four to five quarters, likely when the automobiles segment begins to correct. Long-term demand continues to be strong. We continue to make investments to support growth long term.
• I am currently worried about the time I am seeing it take for my customers to pay me.

• The requirements for the Build America, Buy America Act are a hurdle because they have yet to be settled, and American manufacturing does not have the capacity to provide all the necessary materials for the construction projects. This is causing inflated prices and delayed project starts. Infrastructure projects are essential to the well-being of American citizens, not just the economy. [The water crises in] Jackson, Mississippi, and Flint, Michigan, are just two examples of the results of the high cost and unavailability of materials.
• Bid activity is high and consistent, but there seems to be a lot of projects on hold or being deferred.

• The market seems to have stabilized. Costs have leveled out, but we are seeing an uptick in protein raw material costs.

• All markets served have slowed down and are ordering lower quantities as compared with last year. Automotive OEM [original equipment manufacturers] customers’ volumes are most affected by lower quantities.

• We have seen a slowing the last two quarters and expect the same moving forward.

• Revenue dollars per sale are going down. People are watching their money.

• We expect recession in the second half of this year. We already had a first round of layoffs. We are looking at each employee very carefully to learn who may have to be in a second wave of layoffs, if and when business slows down again.
• Our residential building and construction business has decreased drastically over the past few months due to mortgage rate increases, inflation and other factors. One major factor affecting our industry is foreign competitors dumping product into the U.S. at lower prices than their domestic prices—and lower than U.S. producers’ prices. Mexico, India, Colombia, Ecuador, Vietnam, Malaysia, Turkey and Poland are among countries exporting aluminum extrusions to the U.S. at record levels.

• It seems like someone turned off the spigot, as we have gotten stupid slow, as have others in our industry. We are not sure if it’s the Federal Reserve jacking with interest rates, or else some sort of cyclical slowdown, but it feels like business has ground to a halt. We have some nice work planned for later on this year, but right now we are just stupid slow.
• A continued lack of labor (semi-skilled) is crippling. We have newly established training but can’t find people to train. Absenteeism is high as employees feel free to take time off because we are unable to replace workers, even when they do not comply with normal work rules.

• February has been a slow month; it is hard to know why, but our outlook has worsened for both our business and retail activity in general.
• Customer volumes in soft goods, specifically bed subcomponents, mattresses, comforters and pillows, have seen a sales reduction of 55 percent over last year.

• There is nothing positive with respect to the economy.
• We do believe that the second half of 2023 will see a general reduction in business levels but no contraction of pricing.

Historical Data

Historical data can be downloaded dating back to June 2004.

Indexes

Download indexes for all indicators. For the definitions of all variables, see Data Definitions.

All Data

Download indexes and components of the indexes (percentage of respondents reporting increase, decrease, or no change). For the definitions of all variables, see Data Definitions.