|
Issue 3, May/June 2004
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Regional Update
The state’s economic recovery
remains on track as employment continues to post gains.
While the unemployment rate increased and the Texas
Leading Index weakened, these indicators don’t
cast doubt on the state’s continuing recovery.
Since the beginning of the year,
Texas’ labor market has added 21,500 jobs. Driving
these gains is the trade, transportation and utilities
sector, which alone contributed 11,300 jobs. The information
sector appears to have finally turned the corner; it
experienced no job losses in January and February and
grew 2 percent in March.
The Texas Coincident Index has
remained in positive territory since October 2003 and
has picked up pace, growing 2.2 percent in March. Because
the index is constructed using payroll employment, gross
state product and the unemployment rate, it provides
an overall assessment of how the Texas economy is faring.
The direction and momentum of the index strongly suggest
the region’s economy is improving.
Although the Texas unemployment
rate increased in March from 6.1 percent to 6.2 percent,
it is overshadowed by more encouraging evidence in initial
unemployment claims, which declined by 24.3 percent.
Improvements in new unemployment
claims and the help wanted index also lessen concern
about the downswing in average weekly hours, which is
mainly responsible for the recent weakening of the leading
index. Given that losses in the leading index are not
broad based, the weakening does not pose a serious threat
to an ongoing recovery.
—Priscilla Caputo
| Regional Economic Indicators |
|
|
Texas Leading Index |
TIPI† total |
3/04 |
117.1 |
127.2 |
| 2/04 |
117.2 |
127.6 |
| 1/04 |
117.2 |
127.6 |
| 12/03 |
118.0 |
127.2 |
| 11/03 |
117.0 |
127.2 |
| 10/03 |
116.1 |
127.8 |
| 9/03 |
114.8 |
127.8 |
| 8/03 |
114.5 |
127.4 |
| 7/03 |
114.8 |
127.5 |
| 6/03 |
113.8 |
127.2 |
| 5/03 |
114.1 |
127.6 |
| 4/03 |
112.7 |
127.5 |
|
| † Texas Industrial Production
Index. |
| Texas Employment* |
|
|
Mining |
Construction
|
Manufacturing |
Government |
Private service-
producing |
3/04 |
146.2 |
550.3 |
884.3 |
1,650.5 |
6,157.9 |
| 2/04 |
145.7 |
550.2 |
885.4 |
1,647.6 |
6,151.7 |
| 1/04 |
144.5 |
551.0 |
886.1 |
1,647.0 |
6,143.0 |
| 12/03 |
144.8 |
548.3 |
887.5 |
1,645.0 |
6,141.8 |
| 11/03 |
144.7 |
546.8 |
889.0 |
1,644.0 |
6,135.6 |
| 10/03 |
145.0 |
545.4 |
890.3 |
1,643.0 |
6,127.6 |
| 9/03 |
145.4 |
548.0 |
891.8 |
1,640.9 |
6,116.4 |
| 8/03 |
145.3 |
547.1 |
893.3 |
1,648.2 |
6,113.2 |
| 7/03 |
145.1 |
548.5 |
895.7 |
1,651.0 |
6,111.0 |
| 6/03 |
144.4 |
549.9 |
899.2 |
1,655.7 |
6,108.2 |
| 5/03 |
144.6 |
552.2 |
903.7 |
1,650.7 |
6,120.2 |
| 4/03 |
144.3 |
552.5 |
908.2 |
1,650.4 |
6,124.3 |
|
| * In thousands. |
| Total Nonfarm Employment* |
| |
Texas |
Louisiana |
New
Mexico |
3/04 |
9,390.8 |
1,909.2 |
784.9 |
| 2/04 |
9,382.2 |
1,909.7 |
782.2 |
| 1/04 |
9,373.4 |
1,910.5 |
780.4 |
| 12/03 |
9,369.3 |
1,900.7 |
782.4 |
| 11/03 |
9,361.9 |
1,904.7 |
779.8 |
| 10/03 |
9,353.0 |
1,905.9 |
778.1 |
| 9/03 |
9,344.4 |
1,900.0 |
776.3 |
| 8/03 |
9,349.0 |
1,894.7 |
776.7 |
| 7/03 |
9,353.2 |
1,894.3 |
775.7 |
| 6/03 |
9,359.5 |
1,903.7 |
773.2 |
| 5/03 |
9,373.5 |
1,905.5 |
773.2 |
| 4/03 |
9,381.7 |
1,904.2 |
772.7 |
|
| * In thousands. |
| About
Southwest Economy
Southwest Economy
is published six times annually by the Federal
Reserve Bank of Dallas. The views expressed
are those of the authors and should not
be attributed to the Federal Reserve Bank
of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.
Articles may be reprinted
on the condition that the source is credited
and a copy is provided to the Research Department
of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Southwest Economy
is available free of charge by writing the
Public Affairs Department, Federal Reserve
Bank of Dallas, P.O. Box 655906, Dallas,
TX 75265-5906, or by telephoning (214) 922-5254. |
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