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Issue 5, September/October 2004
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Regional Update
Despite a summer slowdown
in the nation's economic
recovery, Texas' moderate recovery remains on
track. Employment continues to rise modestly, and other
regional indicators point to continued expansion. The
Texas Coincident Index—based on employment, gross
state product and the unemployment rate—has been
on the upswing since September 2003, reflecting the
state's rebound.
Texas added 71,000 jobs
in the first seven months of the year, for
a 1.3 percent annualized rate. Major sectors driving
the gains include educational and health services,
professional and business services, trade, transportation
and utilities, and government. While the recent surge
in oil prices may not translate into large job gains
for the state, Texas is a major producer and exporter
of oil and stands to benefit from increases in oil
company profitability, well royalties and tax revenues.
Although manufacturing overall
has not seen a significant turnaround, high-tech manufacturing
may be showing inklings of recovery. High-tech manufacturing
employment rose five of the first seven months of the
year, largely due to hiring by semiconductor manufacturers.
(For charts showing employment in individual high-tech
industries, see
"Hot Stats" at www.dallasfed.org.)
Texas' inflation-adjusted exports rose 15.1
percent in the second quarter, reflecting growing strength
in the economies of the state's trading partners.
The increase marked the fourth straight quarter of
export growth. While real exports to Mexico edged down
slightly in the second quarter, they were up 9.2 percent
from a year earlier and should strengthen as Mexico's
economy continues to improve.
The Texas Leading Index
suggests continued recovery in the state's economy. The index currently
forecasts moderate growth for Texas, much like that
seen so far this year.
—D'Ann Petersen
| Regional Economic Indicators |
|
|
Texas Leading Index |
TIPI† total |
7/04 |
117.1 |
128.2 |
| 6/04 |
117.4 |
128.2 |
| 5/04 |
117.9 |
128.6 |
| 4/04 |
118.2 |
128.4 |
| 3/04 |
117.4 |
128.1 |
| 2/04 |
117.3 |
128.3 |
| 1/04 |
117.3 |
127.6 |
| 12/03 |
117.8 |
127.2 |
| 11/03 |
116.9 |
127.2 |
| 10/03 |
116.0 |
127.8 |
| 9/03 |
114.7 |
127.8 |
| 8/03 |
114.5 |
127.4 |
|
| † Texas Industrial Production
Index. |
| Texas Employment* |
|
|
Mining |
Construction
|
Manufacturing |
Government |
Private service-
producing |
7/04 |
147.2 |
546.4 |
886.4 |
1,653.7 |
6,224.4 |
| 6/04 |
147.2 |
546.8 |
887.5 |
1,653.2 |
6,214.8 |
| 5/04 |
146.6 |
548.7 |
888.1 |
1,653.1 |
6,206.3 |
| 4/04 |
146.4 |
547.4 |
886.6 |
1,652.2 |
6,197.9 |
| 3/04 |
146.6 |
549.3 |
886.3 |
1,650.6 |
6,184.4 |
| 2/04 |
146.2 |
548.9 |
886.7 |
1,647.6 |
6,175.9 |
| 1/04 |
145.1 |
550.3 |
887.4 |
1,647.0 |
6,165.0 |
| 12/03 |
146.0 |
547.2 |
888.8 |
1,645.2 |
6,160.2 |
| 11/03 |
145.5 |
545.9 |
890.3 |
1,644.2 |
6,149.3 |
| 10/03 |
145.3 |
548.8 |
891.1 |
1,644.2 |
6,148.3 |
| 9/03 |
145.4 |
548.2 |
892.4 |
1,640.8 |
6,121.6 |
| 8/03 |
145.3 |
547.4 |
893.7 |
1,648.7 |
6,118.1 |
|
| * In thousands. |
| Total Nonfarm Employment* |
| |
Texas |
Louisiana |
New
Mexico |
7/04 |
9,462.1 |
1,913.9 |
790.4 |
| 6/04 |
9,453.2 |
1,910.8 |
790.6 |
| 5/04 |
9,446.9 |
1,908.5 |
789.0 |
| 4/04 |
9,434.6 |
1,913.5 |
786.6 |
| 3/04 |
9,421.5 |
1,910.5 |
785.4 |
| 2/04 |
9,409.4 |
1,909.7 |
782.2 |
| 1/04 |
9,399.0 |
1,910.5 |
780.4 |
| 12/03 |
9,391.1 |
1,900.7 |
782.4 |
| 11/03 |
9,378.8 |
1,904.7 |
779.8 |
| 10/03 |
9,380.9 |
1,905.9 |
778.1 |
| 9/03 |
9,350.7 |
1,900.0 |
776.3 |
| 8/03 |
9,355.3 |
1,894.7 |
776.7 |
|
| * In thousands. |
| About
Southwest Economy
Southwest Economy
is published six times annually by the Federal
Reserve Bank of Dallas. The views expressed
are those of the authors and should not
be attributed to the Federal Reserve Bank
of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.
Articles may be reprinted
on the condition that the source is credited
and a copy is provided to the Research Department
of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
Southwest Economy
is available free of charge by writing the
Public Affairs Department, Federal Reserve
Bank of Dallas, P.O. Box 655906, Dallas,
TX 75265-5906, or by telephoning (214) 922-5254. |
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