Vice President and Policy Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Employment History

• Vice President and Policy Advisor (Sept. 2007–present)
• Senior Economist and Vice President (Jan. 2000–Sept. 2007) Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Adjunct Professor, Department of Economics, Southern Methodist University
• Senior Economist and Assistant Vice President, (Jan. 1997–Dec. 1999) Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
• Research Officer (Jan. 1994–Dec. 1996) Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
• Senior Economist and Policy Advisor (March 1990–Dec. 1993) Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
• Senior Economist (Sept. 1988–Feb. 1990) Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
• Assistant Professor (Sept. 1979–Aug. 1988) Department of Economics, University of Washington, Seattle

Educational Background

• B.A.with honors (double major: economics and mathematics), University of Wisconsin–Madison, 1974.
• Ph.D.(Economics), Harvard University, 1981.

Published Research Articles

• “The Use and Abuse of Real-Time and Anecdotal Information in Monetary Policymaking,” Source OECD: General Economics and Future Studies, vol. 2005, no. 35
   
• “Monetary Policy Prospects,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic and Financial Policy Review, no. 2, 2004.
   
• "The Use and Abuse of ‘Real-Time’ Data in Economic Forecasting," with Sheila Dolmas and Jeremy Piger, Review of Economics and Statistics, 85, 2003.
   
• "Is the Markup a Useful Real-Time Predictor of Inflation?" Economics Letters, 80, 2003, pp. 261–67.
   
• "Using the Purchasing Managers’ Index to Assess the Economy’s Strength and the Likely Direction of Monetary Policy," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic and Financial Policy Review, Issue 6, 2002.
   
• "Is There a Persistence Problem ? Part 2: Maybe Not," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic and Financial Review, Fourth Quarter 2000.
     
• "Achieving 'Program Neutrality' under a National Retail Sales Tax," National Tax Journal, December 1999.
   
• "Is There a Persistence Problem ? Part 1: Maybe," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic and Financial Review, Fourth Quarter 1999.
   
• "Taxing Government in a National Retail Sales Tax," with William G. Gale, Diane Lim Rogers and John Sabelhaus, Tax Notes, October 1998.
     
• "The Dynamic Impact of Fundamental Tax Reform: Extensions of the Basic Model," with Gregory Huffman, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Second Quarter 1998.
   
• "The Dynamic Impact of Fundamental Tax Reform: The Basic Model," with Gregory Huffman, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, First Quarter 1998.
   
• "Interest Rates and the Recent Weakness in M2: An Extension to the P* Model of Inflation" Journal of Economics and Business 48, 1996, pp. 487–98.
   
• "Capacity Utilization as a Real-Time Predictor of Manufacturing Output", Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Third Quarter 1996, pp. 16–23.
   
• "Forecasting M2 Growth: An Exploration in Real Time," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Second Quarter 1996, pp. 16–26.
   
• "Long-Term Interest Rates and the Recent Weakness in M2," Journal of Economics and Business 48, 1996, pp. 81–101.
   
• "Targeting Nominal Income: A Closer Look," Economics Letters, 51, 1996, pp. 89–93.
   
• "Optimal Monetary Policy in an Economy with Sticky Nominal Wages," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Second Quarter 1995, pp. 24–31.
   
• "Why the Composite Index of Leading Indicators Doesn't Lead," with Kenneth M. Emery, Contemporary Economic Policy 12, January 1994, pp. 52–66.
   
• "Rethinking the IS in IS-LM: Adapting Keynesian Tools to Non-Keynesian Economies," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review (Part 1 published Third Quarter 1993; Part 2 published Fourth Quarter 1993 [PDF]).
   
• "Do Interest Rates Help Predict Inflation?" with Kenneth M. Emery, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Fourth Quarter 1992, pp. 1–17.
   
• "Forecasting Turning Points: Is a Two-State Characterization of the Business Cycle Appropriate?" with Kenneth M. Emery, Economics Letters 39, August 1992, pp. 431–35.
   
• "Misleading Indicators? Using the Composite Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points," with Kenneth M. Emery, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, July 1991, pp. 1–14.
   
• "Real Money Balances and the Timing of Consumption: An Empirical Investigation," Quarterly Journal of Economics 105, 1990, pp. 399–426.
   
• "A New Monetary Aggregate," with Thomas B. Fomby, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, May 1990, pp. 1–16.
   
• "Recent Trade and Exchange Rate Movements: Possible Explanations," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, September 1989, pp. 13–28.
   
• "Investment and the Nominal Interest Rate: The Variable Velocity Case," Economic Inquiry 27, 1989, pp. 325–44.
   
• "The Short Run 'Tobin Effect' in a Monetary Optimizing Model," Economic Inquiry 25, 1987, pp.43–54.
   
• "Indirect Methods for Regulating Externalities under Uncertainty," Quarterly Journal of Economics 99, 1985, pp. 479–93.
   
• "Controlling Stock Externalities in a Common Property Fishery Subject to Uncertainty," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 11, 1984, pp.124–8.
   
• "Fisheries Regulation under Uncertainty: A Dynamic Analysis," Marine Resource Economics 1, 1984, pp.193–208.
   
• "Uncertainty and Pollution: The Role of Indirect Taxation," Journal of Public Economics 24, 1984, pp.111–22.
   
• "Electric Utility Rate Structures and Distributed Thermal Energy Storage," Energy: The International Journal 6, 1981, pp. 457–70.
   
• "Theory of Graphs: Applications to Automata Systems," Kybernetes 5, 1976.
   
• "On Some Models of World Cataclysm," with Richard H. Day, Land Economics 51, 1975, pp.1–20.
   
• "Models of Doom"-review article, Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, January 1975.

Selected Articles on Public Policy

• “The National Economic Outlook: Continued Growth Likely,” with Keith Phillips, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, Issue 6, 2005.
   
• "New Economy, New Recession?" with Thomas Siems and Mark Wynne, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, Issue 2, 2002.
   
• "Productivity, the Stock Market and Monetary Policy in the Economy," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, Issue 1, 2000.
   
• "Is the Fed Slave to a Defunct Economist?" Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, Issue 5, 1997.
   
• "Is There an Output-Inflation Trade-Off?" with Mark Wynne, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, Issue 3, 1994.

Work in Progress

• “VAR Estimation and Forecasting When Data Are Subject to Revision,” with Kundan Kishor, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper no. 0501, 2005.
   
• “Optimal Monetary Policy in Economies with ‘Sticky-Information’ Wages,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper no. 0405, 2004.