2016

Institute Working Paper
Institute Working Paper 280: Exposure to International Crises: Trade vs. Financial Contagion image
Updated: August 11, 2016
I identify new patterns in countries' economic performance over the 2007-2014 period based on proximity through distance, trade, and finance to the US subprime mortgage and Eurozone debt crisis areas.
Institute Working Paper
Institute Working Paper 279: Trends and Cycles in Small Open Economies: Making The Case For A General Equilibrium Approach image
Updated: August 11, 2016
Economic research into the causes of business cycles in small open economies is almost always undertaken using a partial equilibrium model.
Institute Working Paper
Institute Working Paper 278: On What States Do Prices Depend? Answers From Ecuador image
Updated: August 11, 2016
In this paper, we argue that differences in the cost structure across sectors play an important role in the decision of firms to adjust their prices.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Brexit Uncertainty Influencing the Global Economy
Updated: July 29, 2016
Britain's political landscape is one of the main contributors reshaping the global economy by skewing risks to the downside.
Institute Working Paper
Institute Working Paper 276: Is the Renminbi a Safe Haven? image
Updated: July 20, 2016
We investigate the relationship between market uncertainty and the relative value of the Renminbi against currencies that the safe haven literature typically considers as the traditional safe haven currency candidates.
Institute Working Paper
Institute Working Paper 277: Oil Prices and the Global Economy: Is It Different This Time Around? image
Updated: July 20, 2016
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the US and the global economy.
Institute Working Paper
Institute Working Paper 275: Breaking Down World Trade Elasticities: a Panel ECM Approach image
Updated: July 18, 2016
This paper exhaustively analyses the recent decline of international trade elasticities to output growth.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
International House Price Database, First Quarter 2016
Updated: July 8, 2016
The Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas produces an international house price database, which comprises quarterly house price and personal disposable income (PDI) series for a number of countries. All data series begin in first quarter 1975.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Politics Heightens Uncertainty, but Outlook Mostly Unchanged
Updated: June 17, 2016
Global output growth (excluding the U.S.) ticked up to 2.6 percent year over year in the first quarter. The outlook remains broadly unchanged, with a slow expansion expected over the next two years.
Institute Working Paper
Institute Working Paper 273: Banking Crises, External Crises and Gross Capital Flows image
Updated: June 14, 2016
In this paper, we study the relationship between banking crises, external financial crises and gross international capital flows.
Institute Working Paper
Institute Working Paper 272: Optimal Monetary Policy in Open Economies Revisited image
Updated: May 4, 2016
This paper revisits optimal monetary policy in open economies, in particular, focusing on the noncooperative policy game under local currency pricing in a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model.
Globalization Institute Publications
2015 Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Annual Report
Updated: April 29, 2016
Includes essays "The Trilemma in Practice: Monetary Policy Autonomy in an Economy with a Floating Exchange Rate," "Navigating the Structure of the Global Economy," "Spillovers of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Role of Real and Financial Linkages," and "Diverging Monetary Policies, Global Capital Flows and Financial Stability."
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Outlook Mostly Unchanged as Global Risks Persist
Updated: April 29, 2016
First-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data have not yet been released for most countries, but new forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) project slow expansion over the next two years.
Institute Working Paper
Institute Working Paper 271: The Deep Historical Roots of Macroeconomic Volatility image
Updated: April 12, 2016
We present cross-country evidence that a country’s macroeconomic volatility, measured either by the standard deviation of output growth or the occurrence of trend-growth breaks, is significantly affected by the country’s historical variables.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
International House Price Database, Fourth Quarter 2015
Updated: April 8, 2016
The Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas produces an international house price database, which comprises quarterly house price and personal disposable income (PDI) series for a number of countries. All data series begin in first quarter 1975.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Database of Global Economic Indicators - March 29 2016
Updated: March 29, 2016
The Database of Global Economic Indicators (DGEI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas standardizes and disseminates world economic indicators for policy analysis and scholarly work on the role of globalization.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Uncertainty Still Hangs Over the Global Economy
Updated: March 21, 2016
The global outlook has rebounded from a low point in January but remains weak due to volatile financial markets and low commodity prices.
Institute Working Paper
Institute Working Paper 270: China’s Slowdown and Global Financial Market Volatility: Is World Growth Losing Out? image
Updated: March 16, 2016
China’s GDP growth slowdown and a surge in global financial market volatility could both adversely affect an already weak global economic recovery.
Institute Working Paper
Institute Working Paper 269: The Post-Crisis Slump in the Euro Area and the US: Evidence from an Estimated Three-Region DSGE Model image
Updated: February 25, 2016
The global financial crisis (2008-09) led to a sharp contraction in both Euro Area (EA) and US real activity, and was followed by a long-lasting slump.
Institute Working Paper
Institute Working Paper 268: Big Data Analytics: A New Perspective image
Updated: February 19, 2016
Model specification and selection are recurring themes in econometric analysis. Both topics become considerably more complicated in the case of large-dimensional data sets where the set of specification possibilities can become quite large.
Institute Working Paper
Institute Working Paper 267: Economic Fundamentals and Monetary Policy Autonomy image
Updated: February 12, 2016
During a time of rising world interest rates, the central bank of a small open economy may be motivated to increase its own interest rate to keep from suffering a destabilizing outflow of capital and depreciation in the exchange rate.
Institute Working Paper
Institute Working Paper 266: Wages and Human Capital in Finance: International Evidence, 1970-2005 image
Updated: February 4, 2016
We study the allocation and compensation of human capital in the finance industry in a set of developed economies in 1970-2005.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Subdued Emerging Economy Growth Prospects, Uncertainty Loom Large
Updated: February 2, 2016
Emerging economies’ slowdown weighed on the modest recovery in advanced economies in 2015, weakening the 2016–17 global growth outlook somewhat.
Institute Working Paper
Institute Working Paper 265: Endogenous Firm Competition and the Cyclicality of Markups image
Updated: February 2, 2016
The cyclicality of markups is crucial to understanding the propagation of shocks and the size of multipliers. I show that the degree of inertia in the response of output to shocks can reverse the cyclicality of markups within implicit collusion and customer-base models.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Database of Global Economic Indicators - January 2016
Updated: February 1, 2016
The Database of Global Economic Indicators (DGEI) from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas standardizes and disseminates world economic indicators for policy analysis and scholarly work on the role of globalization.
Institute Working Paper
Institute Working Paper 264: The Implications of Liquidity Expansion in China for the US Dollar image
Updated: January 22, 2016
The value of the US dollar is of major importance to the world economy. Global liquidity has grown sharply in recent years with growing importance of China’s money supply to global liquidity.
Institute Working Paper
Institute Working Paper 263: The U.S. Oil Supply Revolution and the Global Economy image
Updated: January 14, 2016
This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of falling oil prices due to the oil revolution in the United States, using a Global VAR model estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2 to 2011Q2.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
International House Price Database, Third Quarter 2015
Updated: January 8, 2016
The Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas produces an international house price database, which comprises quarterly house price and personal disposable income (PDI) series for a number of countries. All data series begin in first quarter 1975.
Institute Working Paper
Institute Working Paper 262: Quantitative Assessment of the Role of Incomplete Asset Markets on the Dynamics of the Real Exchange Rate image
Updated: January 8, 2016
I develop a two-country New Keynesian model with capital accumulation and incomplete international asset markets that provides novel insights on the effect that imperfect international risk-sharing has on international business cycles and RER dynamics.
Institute Working Paper
Institute Working Paper 261: Inflation as a Global Phenomenon—Some Implications for Policy Analysis and Forecasting image
Updated: January 8, 2016
We evaluate the performance of inflation forecasts based on the open-economy Phillips curve by exploiting the spatial pattern of international propagation of inflation. We model these spatial linkages using global inflation and either domestic slack or oil price fluctuations, motivated by a novel interpretation of the forecasting implications of the workhorse openeconomy New Keynesian model (Martínez-García and Wynne (2010), Kabukcuoglu and Martínez-García (2014)). We find that incorporating spatial interactions yields significantly more accurate forecasts of local inflation in 14 advanced countries (including the U.S.) than a simple autoregressive model that captures only the temporal dimension of the inflation dynamics.
Institute Working Paper
Institute Working Paper 260: Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy at the Zero Lower Bound in a Small Open Economy image
Updated: January 8, 2016
We investigate open economy dimensions of optimal monetary and fiscal policy at the zero lower bound (ZLB) in a small open economy model. At positive interest rates, the trade elasticity has negligible effects on optimal policy. In contrast, at the ZLB, the trade elasticity plays a key role in optimal policy prescriptions. The way in which the trade elasticity shapes policy depends on the government's ability to commit. Under discretion, the increase in government spending at the ZLB depends critically on the trade elasticity. Under commitment, the difference between future and current policies, both for domestic inflation and government spending, is smaller when the trade elasticity is higher.

 

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