2016

Economic Indicators
San Antonio Economic Indicators, May 2016 image
Updated: May 26, 2016
The San Antonio economy held steady in April. The San Antonio Business-Cycle index decelerated, primarily due to job growth that was revised downward in March and remained weak in April. The local unemployment rate remained at a low level, suggesting ongoing labor market tightness.
Economic Indicators
El Paso Economic Indicators, May 2016 image
Updated: May 25, 2016
The El Paso economy expanded in April, and jobs grew at an annualized rate of 2.1 percent. Trade through the port ticked down in March despite strong maquiladora activity.
Economic Indicators
DFW Economic Indicators, May 2016 image
Updated: May 24, 2016
The Dallas-Fort Worth economy continued to expand in April. Year to date through April, DFW employment grew an annualized 2.6 percent, outpacing the state's 1.1 percent and the nation’s 1.6 percent. Office, industrial and apartment markets remained strong in the first quarter.
Economic Indicators
Texas Economic Indicators, May 2016 image
Updated: May 23, 2016
The Texas economy expanded in April. Payroll employment grew during the month, although unemployment edged up. The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey production index continued to be positive, but housing starts declined in March. Exports rose in the first quarter after two consecutive quarters of decline, and the estimated value of the Texas Leading Index increased in April.
Research & Data
Texas Employment Forecast
Updated: May 20, 2016
Incorporating April employment growth of 1.1 percent and new leading index data into the Dallas Fed’s Texas employment forecast leads to a 2016 estimate of 1.5 percent growth (December/December), up from April’s forecast of 1.0 percent growth.
Economic Letter
Central Bank Communication Must Overcome the Public’s Limited Attention Span image
Updated: May 17, 2016
It is critical that central bankers have the ability to communicate their monetary policy goals and intentions involving employment and price stability to the public. The task is complicated in an economy that includes many firms and households in an era of information overload.
Economic Letter
Impact of Chinese Slowdown on U.S. No Longer Negligible image
Updated: May 12, 2016
The impact of the Chinese economy on the U.S. has notably increased over the past two decades. Econometric modeling shows that the U.S. economy is more likely to directly and indirectly (through its trading partners) feel the impact of a negative shock to Chinese output.
Economic Indicators
Permian Basin Economic Indicators, First Quarter 2016 image
Updated: May 11, 2016
The Permian Basin economy is slowing as the rig count continues to decline. Payrolls stagnated over the first quarter, and the unemployment rate edged up. Home sales and retail sales slowed while housing affordability was mixed.
Research Publications
Texas Economic Update
Updated: May 9, 2016
Dallas Fed economists provide updates on the Texas economy.
Economic Letter
Stock Market Provides Imperfect View of Real U.S. Economy image
Updated: May 9, 2016
Monitoring global economic and financial developments is important for assessing labor markets and inflation as well as risks to the economic outlook. The stock market—through measures such as the Standard & Poor’s 500—is often thought to be an economic bellwether. However, market volatility compromises the reliability of such indexes.
Occasional Papers
Occasional Paper 16-01: The Chen-Tindall System and the Lasso Operator: Improving Automatic Model Performance image
Updated: May 6, 2016
Using U.S. monthly macroeconomic data, the automatic model system presented in Chen and Tindall [2016] outperforms the lasso automatic system, but the lasso is improved where Bayesian model averaging is employed to combine its forecasts with those from autoregressive schemes.
Economic Indicators
Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators, First Quarter 2016 image
Updated: May 6, 2016
Santa Teresa and its growing international trade activity continue to be highlights in the southern New Mexico economy. Meanwhile, sustained low commodity prices are slowing other local economies in the southern part of the state.
Economic Indicators
Austin Economic Indicators, May 2016 image
Updated: May 5, 2016
The Austin economy grew at a strong pace in March. The Austin Business-Cycle Index continued its steady deceleration but remained well above trend.
Economic Indicators
El Paso Economic Indicators, May 3, 2016 image
Updated: May 3, 2016
The El Paso economy expanded in March. Trade through the ports remains strong, likely boosted by robust maquiladora activity. In the first quarter, El Paso added jobs at an annualized rate of 2.1 percent, faster than the state’s job gain of 1.4 percent.
National Economic Update
U.S. Labor Market Resilient as Output Slumps (Again)
Updated: May 3, 2016
Indicators of economic activity have mildly declined since mid-March, reflected by a weak first reading of output growth for first quarter 2016.
Research Publications
Mexico Economic Activity Growing Modestly
Updated: May 2, 2016
Mexico’s economy continued growing into the first quarter.
Research Publications
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, March 2016
Updated: May 2, 2016
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 0.6 percent annualized rate in March.
Globalization Institute Publications
2015 Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Annual Report
Updated: April 29, 2016
Includes essays "The Trilemma in Practice: Monetary Policy Autonomy in an Economy with a Floating Exchange Rate," "Navigating the Structure of the Global Economy," "Spillovers of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy: The Role of Real and Financial Linkages," and "Diverging Monetary Policies, Global Capital Flows and Financial Stability."
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Outlook Mostly Unchanged as Global Risks Persist
Updated: April 29, 2016
First-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data have not yet been released for most countries, but new forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) project slow expansion over the next two years.
Research & Data
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
Updated: April 29, 2016
The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate for March was an annualized 1.6 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for March was 0.6 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 0.6 percent.
Speeches by President Robert S. Kaplan
A Discussion of Key Secular Trends, Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy
Updated: April 29, 2016
Remarks before the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum
Research Publications
Regional Growth Continues to Stagnate
Updated: April 28, 2016
Texas employment growth decelerated further in March to a 0.1 percent annualized rate.
Economic Indicators
Houston Economic Indicators, April 26, 2016 image
Updated: April 26, 2016
Revised data suggest that Houston’s economy was slightly weaker than originally estimated at the end of 2015 and that it has weakened since. Port activity and industries driven by local demand, such as health care, are holding up but may begin losing steam as losses in the energy sector mount. With leading indicators still weak, the outlook for Houston is modestly negative.
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey
Texas Service Sector Activity Strengthens
Updated: April 26, 2016
Texas service sector activity increased in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, rose from 6.4 to 10.6, its highest reading this year.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Texas Manufacturing Activity Expands Again
Updated: April 25, 2016
Texas factory activity increased for a second month in a row in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 3.3 to 5.8, suggesting a slight pickup in output growth.
Economic Indicators
San Antonio Economic Indicators, April 2016 image
Updated: April 21, 2016
The San Antonio economy grew at a moderate pace in March. The San Antonio Business-Cycle index decelerated but remained nearly two percentage points above trend.
Annual Report 2015
After the Boom: Texas Economy Downshifts in Energy Bust
Updated: April 20, 2016
While the global oil price collapse has slowed Texas' economic growth, the state is in a much better position to weather the storm than it was during the 1980s recession and banking crisis, according to the Dallas Fed's 2015 Annual Report.
Economic Indicators
DFW Economic Indicators, April 2016 image
Updated: April 19, 2016
The Dallas-Fort Worth economy expanded in March. Housing affordability declined further in the fourth quarter, and home prices continued to increase in January.
Economic Letter
Increased Credit Availability, Rising Asset Prices Help Boost Consumer Spending image
Updated: April 19, 2016
A combination of much less household debt, revived access to consumer credit and recovering asset prices have bolstered U.S. consumer spending. This trend will likely continue despite an estimated 50 percent reduction since the mid-2000s of the housing wealth effect— an important amplifier during the boom years.
Economic Indicators
Texas Economic Indicators, April 18, 2016 image
Updated: April 18, 2016
The Texas economy continued to slow in March. Payroll employment remained relatively flat during the month, and unemployment held steady.
Economic Letter
Consequences of the Euro: Monetary Union, Economic Disunion? image
Updated: April 18, 2016
Forming a monetary union brings the benefits of a shared currency but also—as the experience of the euro area shows in the years following the global financial crisis—significant costs associated with the loss of monetary policy independence and exchange rate flexibility.
Community Development Publications
Texas Small Business Needs Assessment Poll 2016 image
Updated: April 14, 2016
The data collected in this yearly report shed light on challenges, successes and changes for small business owners and help identify emerging issues, areas of strength and needed improvement in Texas' small business community.
Research Publications
Dallas Beige Book
Updated: April 13, 2016
Economic activity in the Eleventh District was flat to up slightly over the past six weeks.
Crossroads, Issue 1 - 2016
Crossroads: U.S. - Mexico Manufacturing: Back in the Race? image
Updated: April 11, 2016
Since the implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), trade between the U.S. and Mexico has seen tremendous growth, increasing from approximately $160 billion in 1994 to currently over $530 billion.
Economic Indicators
Austin Economic Indicators, April 2016 image
Updated: April 8, 2016
The Austin economy continued to expand steadily in February. The Austin Business-Cycle Index rose at a rapid pace, although job growth was somewhat anemic compared to historical norms.
Research Publications
Hopes and Fears About Oversupply Whipsaw Oil Prices
Updated: April 7, 2016
Oil prices rang in the new year by plummeting more than 25 percent the first two weeks of January due to concerns about global economic growth and oversupply in the oil market.
Economic Indicators
Houston Economic Indicators, April 4, 2016 image
Updated: April 4, 2016
Revised data suggest that Houston’s economy was slightly stronger than originally estimated at the end of 2015. However, despite those revisions and a very modest increase in oil prices since February, mining-related industries continue to be a significant drag on Houston. Health, leisure and hospitality, and retail trade are softening the impact, but overall, the near-term outlook is tepid at best.
Research Publications
Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2016
Updated: March 31, 2016
In this issue: Texas Economy Remains Resilient, but Low Oil Prices Loom as Future Risk; On the Record: Texas Home Prices to Keep Rising Despite Energy Slowdown; High School Financial Literacy Mandate Could Boost Texans’ Economic Well-Being; Spotlight: Remittances to Mexico Fall as Immigration, Incomes Stagnate; Texas Office, Industrial Markets Mostly Healthy Despite Energy Bust
Financial Insights
Financial Insights: Bank Performance Stable but Headwinds Mounting image
Updated: March 31, 2016
Bank performance, both nationwide and in the Federal Reserve’s Eleventh District, has stabilized.
Economic Indicators
San Antonio Economic Indicators, March 31, 2016 image
Updated: March 31, 2016
The San Antonio economy expanded at a moderate pace in February. Growth in the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index decelerated but continued above trend.
OMWI
Office of Minority and Women Inclusion: 2015 Congressional Report. image
Updated: March 31, 2016
Office of Minority and Women Inclusion: 2015 Congressional Report.
Economic Indicators
DFW Economic Indicators, March, 29 2016 image
Updated: March 29, 2016
The Dallas–Fort Worth economy expanded in February. Home sales dipped during the month but remained well above year-earlier levels, and home inventories continued to be tight. Home prices trended upward in the fourth quarter. Dallas Fed business-cycle indexes point to continued growth for the metroplex.
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey
Texas Service Sector Activity Increases at a Slower Pace
Updated: March 29, 2016
Texas service sector activity continued to reflect expansion in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, moved down from 9.7 to 6.4, indicating activity increased but at a slower pace than in February.
Research Publications
Agricultural Survey, First Quarter 2016
Updated: March 29, 2016
Bankers responding to the firstquarter survey reported some concerns for producers' financial positions due largely to low crop prices.
Economic Indicators
Texas Economic Indicators, March 2016 image
Updated: March 28, 2016
The Texas economy moderated in February. Payroll employment inched up during the month, and unemployment ticked down.
Research Publications
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, February 2016
Updated: March 28, 2016
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index fell at a 1.3 percent annualized rate in February, pulled down by a sharp decline in gasoline prices.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Texas Manufacturing Activity Rebounds in March
Updated: March 28, 2016
Texas factory activity expanded slightly in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rebounded to positive territory this month--coming in at 3.3--after two months of negative readings.
Research Publications
Mexico Economy Expands Modestly in Fourth Quarter
Updated: March 24, 2016
Mexico gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed in the fourth quarter, and the 2016 growth forecast was revised down to 2.5 percent in February from 2.7 percent in January.
Economic Indicators
El Paso Economic Indicators, March 22, 2016 image
Updated: March 23, 2016
The El Paso economy expanded in January. Payroll employment grew at a pace of 4.4 percent, higher than the state’s 2.4 percent. Despite strong employment gains, January home sales ticked down, and although Ciudad Juárez maquiladora employment remains robust, trade flows slowed.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Uncertainty Still Hangs Over the Global Economy
Updated: March 21, 2016
The global outlook has rebounded from a low point in January but remains weak due to volatile financial markets and low commodity prices.
Research Publications
Regional Growth Decelerates in Oil-Dependent Areas
Updated: March 18, 2016
The regional economy continues to expand, but recent data suggest that growth likely decelerated in February relative to January.
National Economic Update
Job Gains Remain Strong, Inflation Improves
Updated: March 17, 2016
Economic data released in the past six weeks point to moderate U.S. economic growth in first quarter 2016.
Economic Indicators
Houston Economic Indicators, March 14, 2016 image
Updated: March 14, 2016
Recent data suggest that Houston’s economy was slightly stronger than originally estimated in 2015. While the region is still struggling from a moribund oil and gas sector, services—particularly health and leisure and hospitality services—continue to be a source of growth. Taken together, the outlook remains tepid and uncertain.
Economic Indicators
Austin Economic Indicators, March 10, 2016 image
Updated: March 10, 2016
The Austin economy continued to expand in January. The Austin Business-Cycle Index increased at a rapid pace, and job growth rose at a 2.7 percent annualized rate, slightly above that of the state.
Economic Indicators
San Antonio Economic Indicators, March 10, 2016 image
Updated: March 10, 2016
The San Antonio economy expanded rapidly in January. Job growth picked up sharply, rising by more than double the state rate, while the metropolitan unemployment rate fell for a second consecutive month.
Economic Letter
Emerging-Market Debtor Nations Likely to Follow Fed Rate Boosts image
Updated: March 9, 2016
A Federal Reserve interest rate increase can lead to capital flows reversing and exiting emerging markets.
Rob Kaplan: Investing in Texas education is key to our economic future
Rob Kaplan: Investing in Texas education is key to our economic future image
Updated: March 9, 2016
Education is a great investment for our cities, our state and our nation. It produces benefits for taxpayers, businesses, and most importantly, for our kids.
Economic Indicators
DFW Economic Indicators, March 2016 image
Updated: March 8, 2016
The Dallas-Fort Worth economy continued to expand, albeit at a slow pace in January. DFW office and industrial markets remained strong at year-end 2015. Unemployment in January edged down in both Dallas and Fort Worth, reflecting further tightness in the labor market. Dallas Fed business-cycle indexes point to continued growth for the metroplex.
Economic Indicators
Texas Economic Indicators, Mar. 2016 image
Updated: March 7, 2016
The Texas economy expanded in January. Payroll employment increased during the month, and unemployment ticked down.
Research Publications
Dallas Beige Book
Updated: March 2, 2016
Economic activity in the Eleventh District was flat over the last six weeks.
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey
Texas Service Sector Activity Expands but Outlook Worsens
Updated: March 1, 2016
Texas service sector activity continued to reflect expansion in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, was unchanged from January at 9.7, indicating activity increased at the same pace as last month.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Texas Manufacturing Activity Contracts Again
Updated: February 29, 2016
Texas factory activity contracted again in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.
Research Publications
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, January 2016
Updated: February 26, 2016
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 1.2 percent annualized rate in January, after falling at a 0.8 percent annualized rate in December.
Research Publications
Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators, Fourth Quarter 2015 image
Updated: February 25, 2016
Santa Teresa and its growing international trade activity continue to be highlights of the southern New Mexico economy. Declining commodity prices are slowing other regional economies in the southern part of the state.
Economic Indicators
El Paso Economic Indicators, Feb. 2016 image
Updated: February 23, 2016
The El Paso economy expanded in 2015 as payroll employment grew 2.5 percent, faster than the state's 1.4 percent pace. Housing affordability ticked up in the last quarter of the year. January trade flows also increased as maquiladora activity in Ciudad Juarez remained robust.
Special Report
At the Heart of Texas: Cities’ Industry Clusters Drive Growth
Updated: February 17, 2016
This special report is a comprehensive look at the industry clusters, history and demographics shaping eight of Texas' key metropolitan areas: Austin, Dallas, El Paso, Fort Worth, Houston, McAllen, Midland-Odessa and San Antonio. For each city, the report's authors identify the dominant industry clusters--those that exceed the national average in their share of employment--that drive that city's economy.
Research Publications
Mexico Economy Slows in Fourth Quarter
Updated: February 5, 2016
Mexico’s economy grew in the fourth quarter, although at a slower pace than in the third.
Economic Indicators
Austin Economic Indicators, Feb. 2016 image
Updated: February 4, 2016
The Austin economy continued to expand in December. The Austin Business-Cycle Index grew strongly, but job growth moderated to a modest 1.1 percent annualized rate.
National Economic Update
Labor Market Strength Supports U.S. Outlook
Updated: February 3, 2016
Data released since the December 2015 Federal Open Market Committee meeting supports persistent, yet softer, growth.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Subdued Emerging Economy Growth Prospects, Uncertainty Loom Large
Updated: February 2, 2016
Emerging economies’ slowdown weighed on the modest recovery in advanced economies in 2015, weakening the 2016–17 global growth outlook somewhat.
Research Publications
Signs That Slower Growth Will Persist in the Regional Economy
Updated: February 1, 2016
The Eleventh District economy continued its modest growth through the end of 2015 even as the near-term outlook dimmed.
Research Publications
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, December 2015
Updated: February 1, 2016
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index fell at 1.1 percent annualized rate in December.
Economic Indicators
Houston Economic Indicators, Feb. 2016 image
Updated: February 1, 2016
Employment continued to grow in Houston last year. The metro area added 100,200 fewer jobs than in 2014, thanks to the sharp decline in oil prices.
Economic Indicators
San Antonio Economic Indicators, Jan. 2016 image
Updated: January 28, 2016
The San Antonio economy continued to expand moderately in December. Job growth dipped slightly negative, contrasting with the continued mild growth in the state.
Economic Indicators
Permian Basin Economic Indicators, Fourth Quarter 2015 image
Updated: January 27, 2016
The Permian Basin economy continued to weaken in the fourth quarter as West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices fell over 20 percent. The drop in drilling activity has led to job cuts, moving the unemployment rate higher. The sluggish job market continues to dampen both regional retail sales and the housing market.
Economic Indicators
El Paso Economic Indicators, Jan. 2016 image
Updated: January 27, 2016
The El Paso economy expanded in 2015. Payroll employment grew at a 2.5 percent pace, higher than the state's 1.4 percent.
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey
Texas Service Sector Activity Increases at a Slower Pace as Optimism Wanes
Updated: January 26, 2016
Texas service sector activity continued to reflect expansion in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, fell from 15.2 to 10.0, indicating activity increased but at a slower pace than in December.
Economic Indicators
DFW Economic Indicators, Jan. 2016 image
Updated: January 26, 2016
The Dallas-Fort Worth economy continued to expand at a rapid clip in December. For all of 2015, DFW employment grew 3.3 percent, outpacing both the state at 1.5 percent and the nation at 1.9 percent.
Economic Indicators
Texas Economic Indicators, Jan. 2016 image
Updated: January 25, 2016
The Texas economy expanded in December. Payroll employment increased during the month; however, unemployment continued to edge up. Housing starts climbed in November, and home sales strengthened in December. November exports continued to fall, and the estimated value of the Texas Leading Index dipped further in December following November's decline.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Texas Manufacturing Activity Falls Sharply
Updated: January 25, 2016
Texas factory activity fell sharply in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index--a key measure of state manufacturing conditions--dropped 23 points, from 12.7 to -10.2, suggesting output declined this month after growing throughout fourth quarter 2015.
Economic Indicators
Houston Economic Indicators, Jan. 2016 image
Updated: January 14, 2016
Houston is treading water as oil-related losses abate and the region gets help from health, construction, and refining and petrochemicals. The outlook remains very soft.
Interviews with President Rob Kaplan
Watch Rob Kaplan's interview with Bloomberg
Updated: January 13, 2016
Bloomberg Radio aired President Rob Kaplan's first national interview on Jan. 13, 2016. The first portion of the interview, broadcast live from the Bank, was simulcast on Bloomberg Television.
Research Publications
Dallas Beige Book
Updated: January 13, 2016
The Eleventh District economy grew at a modest pace over the last six weeks.
Speeches by President Robert S. Kaplan
Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy in a Changing World
Updated: January 11, 2016
Remarks before the Dallas chapters of Financial Executives International, the Association for Corporate Growth and the National Association of Corporate Directors.
Economic Indicators
Austin Economic Indicators, Jan. 2016 image
Updated: January 7, 2016
Austin economic growth was strong in November. The Austin Business-Cycle Index continued to grow above trend, while jobs climbed at a rapid 4.6 percent annualized rate.

 

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