2015

Economic Indicators
Texas Economic Indicators, April 20, 2015 image
Updated: April 20, 2015
The Texas economy weakened in March. Employment growth was negative for the first time in more than two years, while unemployment continued to edge down.
Research Publications
Dallas Beige Book
Updated: April 15, 2015
The Eleventh District economy grew at a moderate pace over the past six weeks, similar to the prior reporting period. Manufacturers mostly reported steady or increased demand. Retail reports were more mixed, but reports of automobile sales were consistently positive. Demand for nonfinancial services improved or held steady, and real estate activity remained solid.
Economic Letter
External Debt Sheds Light on Drivers of Exchange Rate Fluctuations image
Updated: April 14, 2015
During a financial panic, a major driver of exchange rate fluctuations is a country's amount of external debt, or funds borrowed from foreign lenders. However, not all debt has the same impact on rate movements.
Research Publications
Houston Economic Indicators, April 10, 2015 image
Updated: April 10, 2015
After four consecutive months of deceleration, the Houston Business-Cycle Index accelerated to a rate of 3.3 percent growth in February.
Economic Letter
Plunging Oil Prices: A Boost for the U.S. Economy, a Jolt for Texas image
Updated: April 9, 2015
Economic activity in the U.S. overall will benefit from the oil price collapse. The decline will, however, negatively affect oil-producing states such as Texas and North Dakota.
Research Publications
Oil Prices Retreat Following a Brief Uptick
Updated: April 6, 2015
Energy markets remained volatile during the first quarter, with oil prices rising temporarily before falling again to new lows.
Economic Indicators
San Antonio Economic Indicators, April 2, 2015 image
Updated: April 2, 2015
The San Antonio economy accelerated in February. Employment grew at an annualized rate of 5.9 percent, far outpacing Texas job growth of 1.3 percent. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8 percent, its lowest level since mid-2007. Indicators of retail activity suggest continued strength.
Economic Research Publications
Austin Economic Indicators, April 2, 2015 image
Updated: April 2, 2015
The Austin economy grew strongly in February. Jobs increased at an annualized rate of 4.5 percent.
Financial Insights
Help Wanted: Looking Beyond the Headline Unemployment Rate image
Updated: April 2, 2015
During the economic recovery following the 2008-09 Great Recession, the official, or headline, U.S. unemployment rate has fallen steadily. The unemployment rate peaked at 10.0 percent in October 2009 and is now, thankfully, very close to the "natural" rate of unemployment as inferred by the Congressional Budget Office.
Economic Indicators
DFW Economic Indicators, March 2015 image
Updated: March 31, 2015
The Dallas-Fort Worth economy continued to expand in February. DFW employment has grown 3.1 percent year to date, compared with 1.4 percent for the state and 2.3 percent for the nation. Home price appreciation has continued at a rapid clip, and apartment demand remains strong.
OMWI
Office of Minority and Women Inclusion: 2013 Congressional Report. image
Updated: April 1, 2014
Office of Minority and Women Inclusion: 2013 Congressional Report.
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey
Texas Service Sector Activity Increases but at a Slower Pace
Updated: March 31, 2015
Texas service sector activity continued to reflect expansion in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. However, the revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, edged down from 13.6 to 10.7, its lowest reading since October 2013.
Economic Indicators
Texas Economic Indicators, March 30, 2015 image
Updated: March 30, 2015
The Texas economy continues to expand, with employment growing at a 1.3 percent annual rate in February. Texas existing-home sales and housing starts ticked up in February, while single-family permits dipped. Texas exports declined in January after rising in December. The Texas Leading Index edged down for the fifth consecutive month in January, suggesting moderating employment growth ahead.
Research Publications
Agricultural Survey, First Quarter 2015 image
Updated: March 30, 2015
Bankers responding to the first-quarter survey reported receiving beneficial winter rain and snow but said more moisture is needed. Farm commodity prices remained low, and there was widespread concern among respondents about debt and profitability this year.
Research Publications
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, February 2015
Updated: March 30, 2015
After three consecutive monthly declines, the headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 2.1 percent annualized rate in February.
Research & Data
Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate
Updated: March 2, 2015
The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate for January was an annualized -0.3 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for December was -5.3 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 0.7 percent.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Texas Manufacturing Activity Weakens
Updated: March 30, 2015
Texas factory activity declined in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell to -5.2, posting its first negative reading in nearly two years.
Perspectives
In-School Savings Accounts Enhance Effective Financial Education: Learnings from OpportunityTexas
Updated: March 27, 2015
OpportunityTexas has played a leading role in developing research and programming around youth and college savings in the state. This article highlights the initiative’s efforts to incorporate in-school savings accounts into existing state-mandated financial education curriculum, as well as its presentation at the most recent Financial Literacy and Education Commission meeting in D.C.
Economic Letter, March 2015
International Migration Remains the Last Frontier of Globalization image
Updated: March 26, 2015
Allowing greater international migration, though controversial, offers the potential of outsized economic output gains relative to what’s possible with further liberalization of trade or capital flows.
Economic Indicators
El Paso Economic Indicators, March 2015 image
Updated: March 24, 2015
The El Paso economy continued to expand in January, albeit at a slower pace than in December, according to the Dallas Fed's El Paso Business-Cycle index. In January, the index advanced at an annualized rate of 0.8 percent, compared with December's gain of 2.0 percent.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
Monetary Policy Moves May Revive Listless Global Growth
Updated: March 20, 2015
In 2014, global real gross domestic product (GDP) grew 3 percent year over year, its lowest value since 2009.
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
2014 Financial Statement image
Updated: March 20, 2015
Financial Statements as of and for the Years Ended December 31, 2014 and 2013 and Independent Auditors' Report
Research Publications
Mexico Outlook Deteriorates Despite Faster Growth in Fourth Quarter
Updated: March 19, 2015
Mexico’s economy expanded 2.1 percent in 2014, according to official tallies, which measure annual average growth. Based on the four-quarter change, gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 2.6 percent last year, up from 1 percent in 2013.
Research Publications
Regional Economy Moderates
Updated: March 19, 2015
The Texas economy continues to expand, but there are signs that growth is slowing. Some major metro areas have begun to experience slower growth, especially in locations where energy industry jobs make up a large portion of employment
Research Publications
Labor Market Improves While Inflation Slumps
Updated: March 18, 2015
Economic indicators released since late January suggest that the U.S. will sustain trend growth in the medium term.
Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2015
On the Record: Immigrant Legalization Offers Range of Economic Gains, Some Fiscal Costs image
Updated: March 18, 2015
Pia Orrenius is a vice president and senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. She has written extensively on the economic effects of immigration and coauthored the book Beside the Golden Door: U.S. Immigration Reform in a New Era of Globalization. She discusses the Obama administrationâ??s recently announced plans to legalize the status of several million unauthorized immigrants.
Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2015
Texas Metros' Rapid Growth Likely to Slow Following Energy Price Drop image
Updated: March 18, 2015
Houston and Midland will be most affected by the oil and gas sector's slump. Activity may slow in other Texas metropolitan areas, but they will avoid major fallout because of economic diversification that has occurred in recent decades.
Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2015
Lower Oil Prices Weaken Prospects for Job, Economic Growth in Texas image
Updated: March 18, 2015
Although the relative importance of oil and gas to the Texas economy has grown in recent years, lower energy prices are unlikely to halt net job growth statewide.
Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2015
Texas Facing Economic Headwinds in 2015 image
Updated: March 18, 2015
Texas job growth is likely to slow in 2015 from last yearâ??s rapid pace as the state economy absorbs the impact of collapsing energy prices that have curtailed oil patch activity.
Economic Research Publications
Austin Economic Indicators, March 13, 2015 image
Updated: March 13, 2015
The Austin economy expanded at a moderate pace in January.
Economic Indicators
San Antonio Economic Indicators, March 12, 2015 image
Updated: March 12, 2015
The San Antonio economy continued to expand moderately in January. Nonfarm payroll jobs grew at an annual rate of 3.1 percent, outpacing the state by over a percentage point. Unemployment ticked up slightly to 4 percent, though it remains near postrecession lows. While
Research Publications
Houston Economic Indicators, March 12, 2015 image
Updated: March 12, 2015
The Houston Business-Cycle Index increased just 1.1 percent in January after climbing a revised 4.7 percent in December.
Research Publications
Dallas–Fort Worth Economic Indicators, March 10, 2015 image
Updated: March 10, 2015
The Dallas-Fort Worth economy continues to expand at a solid pace. In January, DFW employment grew 4.6 percent, outperforming the state's 1.7 percent rate.
Economic Indicators
Texas Economic Indicators, March 9, 2015 image
Updated: March 9, 2015
The Texas economy continued to expand in January, albeit at a slower pace than in December. Existing-home sales, single-family permits and housing starts all fell in January.
Speeches by President Richard W. Fisher
Janet Yellen Is No Mae West!
Updated: March 9, 2015
Remarks before Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy Founding Director's Lecture Series
Speeches by President Richard W. Fisher
Homage to Texas, the Great People of Dallas and the Staff of the Dallas Fed
Updated: March 6, 2015
Remarks before the Dallas Regional Chamber
Research Publications
Dallas Beige Book
Updated: March 4, 2015
The Eleventh District economy expanded at roughly the same pace as in the prior reporting period.
Research Publications
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, January 2015
Updated: March 2, 2015
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index fell at a 5.3 percent annualized rate in January, as gasoline prices recorded their biggest one-month drop since December 2008.
Economic Research Publications
El Paso Economic Indicators, February 24, 2015 image
Updated: February 24, 2015
Overall economic activity continues to expand in El Paso, according to the Dallas Fed's El Paso Business-Cycle index.
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey
Texas Service Sector Activity Continues to Expand and Business Conditions Improve Slightly
Updated: February 24, 2015
Texas service sector activity continued to reflect expansion in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, edged up from 12.1 to 13.6 but remained below its 2014 average.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Texas Manufacturing Activity Remains Flat
Updated: February 23, 2015
Texas factory activity posted a second month of no growth in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, remained near zero (0.7) and indicated output was essentially unchanged from January levels.
Speeches by President Richard W. Fisher
Remarks Upon Acceptance of the Mexican Order of the Aztec Eagle
Updated: February 17, 2015
Remarks Upon Acceptance of the Mexican Order of the Aztec Eagle
Community Development Publications
COS: Modest Job Improvement Encourages Service Providers in Eleventh District image
Updated: February 17, 2015
In January 2015, we asked service providers how they evaluated changes in the needs of low- and moderate-income (LMI) households—ranging from the availability of jobs and affordable housing to financial well-being and access to credit—for the last six months of 2014.
Research Publications
Houston Economic Indicators, February 12, 2015 image
Updated: February 12, 2015
The Houston Business-Cycle Index decelerated to 4.3 percent growth in December after rising a revised 5.8 and 7.2 percent in November and October.
Speeches by President Richard W. Fisher
Suggestions After a Decade at the Fed
Updated: February 11, 2015
Suggestions After a Decade at the Fed (With Reference to Paul Volcker, Roosa Boys, Hogwarts, the Death Star, Ebenezer Scrooge, Mae West, Herb Kelleher, Worms and Camels, Peter Weir, Charles Kindleberger, Pope Francis and Secretariat)
Economic Research Publications
Austin Economic Indicators, February 5, 2015 image
Updated: February 5, 2015
The Austin economy grew at a stable pace in December. Jobs expanded at a modest annualized rate of 0.7 percent, while the unemployment rate fell sharply to 3.7 percent.
Globalization Institute Publications
2014 Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute Annual Report
Updated: February 5, 2015
This year's institute annual report contains essays by three of the senior staff of the institute explaining how their individual research programs have helped advance our understanding of globalization.
Globalization & Monetary Policy Institute
U.S. Shines Despite Dim Global Outlook
Updated: February 3, 2015
Weakness in the euro area, Japan and some emerging economies (especially oil-exporting countries) has dimmed the global outlook.
Research Publications
Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, December 2014
Updated: February 2, 2015
The headline, or all-items, PCE price index fell at a 2.8 percent annualized rate in December, following a 2 percent rate of decline in November.
Reports on Regional Economic Activity
Texas Economic Update: January 2015 (Video) image
Updated: February 2, 2015
Mine K. Yücel, Dallas Fed senior vice president and director of research, provides updates on Texas job growth and the energy sector.
Research Publications
Mexico Outlook Deteriorates Despite Faster Growth in Fourth Quarter
Updated: January 30, 2015
Mexico’s economy expanded 2.1 percent in 2014, according to official tallies, which measure annual average growth. Based on the four-quarter change, gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 2.6 percent last year, up from 1 percent in 2013.
Research Publications
Oil Price Decline Continues; Consumer Sentiment Drives Output
Updated: January 30, 2015
Economic data released since mid-December indicate robust growth in the second half of 2014. Oil prices continued to decline, boosting household real disposable income.
Research Publications
Mexico Economy Plods Along Despite Headwinds
Updated: January 30, 2015
Mexico's economy continued growing into the fourth quarter as the monthly proxy for gross domestic product (GDP) picked up in October and November following lackluster third-quarter output growth of 2 percent.
Economic Research Publications
San Antonio Economic Indicators, January 29, 2015 image
Updated: January 29, 2015
San Antonio Economic Indicators is a monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the San Antonio economy.
Research Publications
Regional Outlook: Moderate Growth Ahead
Updated: January 29, 2015
Economic growth in the Eleventh District moderated somewhat as oil prices fell to five-year lows. Oil well permits and the Texas rig count have seen significant declines, and exports have continued to fall.
Economic Research Publications
El Paso Economic Indicators, January 27, 2015 image
Updated: January 27, 2015
Overall economic activity continues to expand in the El Paso metropolitan area, according to the Dallas Fed's El Paso Business-Cycle index.
Research Publications
Dallas–Fort Worth Economic Indicators, January 27, 2015 image
Updated: January 27, 2015
The Dallas-Fort Worth economy continued to expand at a solid pace in December. In 2014, DFW employment grew at 3.6 percent, matching the state's 3.6 percent rate but outpacing the nation's 2.1 percent increase.
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey
Texas Service Sector Activity Increases at a Slower Pace as Optimism Wanes
Updated: January 27, 2015
Texas service sector activity expanded at a slower pace in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, dropped from 22.2 to 12.1, its lowest reading in 11 months.
Economic Indicators
Texas Economic Indicators, January 26, 2015 image
Updated: January 26, 2015
The Texas economy continues to expand, with employment growing at a 3.7 percent annualized rate in December.
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey
Texas Manufacturing Activity Stalls and Outlook Worsens
Updated: January 26, 2015
Texas factory activity was flat in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, came in at 0.7, indicating output was essentially unchanged from December.
Economic Letter
Current Account Surplus May Damp the Effects of China's Credit Boom image
Updated: January 20, 2015
In contrast to similar credit expansions in the euro periphery in the 2000s and East Asia in the 1990s, China's credit boom is far less likely to end in a dramatic bust because it's financed by domestic savings.
Research Publications
Dallas Beige Book
Updated: January 14, 2015
The Eleventh District economy expanded at a slightly slower pace over the past six weeks than in the previous report.
News Releases
2015 Texas Job Growth Forecast Still Healthy Despite Oil Price Shock, Says Dallas Fed
Updated: January 13, 2015
State Projected to Add 235,000 to 295,000 Jobs This Year; Less Than 2014, According to Bank's Annual Texas Economic Outlook
Research Publications
Houston Economic Indicators, January 2015 image
Updated: January 8, 2015
The Houston Business-Cycle Index growth rate slowed to 6 percent in November from 7.4 percent in October.
Research Publications
Oil Prices Plummet amid Growing Supply–Demand Imbalances
Updated: January 8, 2015
Oil prices plunged during the fourth quarter as a result of expanding world oil supply and changes in expectations for future supply and demand.
Economic Indicators
Texas Economic Indicators, January 2015 image
Updated: January 7, 2015
The Texas economy continues to expand, with employment growing at a 3.2 percent annual rate in November. Texas existing-home sales, single-family permits and housing starts all fell in November. Texas exports decreased from October to November. Manufacturing activity rose at a faster pace in December than in November, according to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.
Economic Research Publications
Austin Economic Indicators, January 2015 image
Updated: January 2, 2015
The Austin economy grew at a steady pace in November. Jobs grew at a modest pace of 2.3 percent annualized, while the unemployment rate remained flat at a low 4.1 percent.

 

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