http://www.dallasfed.org/ The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas serves the public by contributing to national monetary policy, supervising and regulating financial institutions, and helping maintain a strong payments system. http://www.dallasfed.org/images/rss-logo.gif http://www.dallasfed.org/ Fri, Nov 20, 2009 18:75 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/papers/2009/index.html#0904 http://dallasfed.org/research/papers/2009/index.html#0904 This paper analyzes the meltdown of the commercial paper market during the Great Depression, and relates those findings to the recent financial crisis. Fri, Nov 20, 2009 18:75 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/papers/2009/index.html#0905 http://dallasfed.org/research/papers/2009/index.html#0905 This paper explores the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S economy, combining narrative and quantitative approaches. Thurs, Nov 19, 2009 18:75 CST http://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2009/fs091119.cfm http://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2009/fs091119.cfm Paradise Lost: Addressing 'Too Big to Fail' (With Reference to John Milton and Irving Kristol): "In the words of Milton, I would say that regulation should be designed to enable financial institutions to be 'sufficient to have stood, though free to fall.'" Tues, Nov 17, 2009 10:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2009/0907.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2009/0907.cfm With the close of 2009 approaching, the overall national economic picture remains much the same as the previous month. Many major data releases over the past two weeks indicate that economic activity continues to pick up, but some indicators suggest that we still have some way to go in the journey toward stability. Mon, Nov 16, 2009 13:30 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2009/0907.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-reg/2009/0907.cfm Regional economic conditions are weak but improving. Employment fell again in September, and a benchmark revision of Texas jobs data for the first half of the year resulted in additional payroll declines of 63,500 since December 2008. State GDP and personal income data, however, suggest that economic activity may have bottomed out in the second quarter. Stimulus measures, transfer payments and public sector growth are making up for some of the private-sector weakness. Forward-looking measures remain more positive than coincident data, suggesting the outlook is for continued improvement. Tues, Nov 10, 2009 18:30 CST http://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2009/fs091110.cfm http://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2009/fs091110.cfm "The Federal Reserve has done what it can to prevent Depression 2.0 and the deflation that one would have expected might accompany economic collapse. It will take some time, in my opinion, to get back on a steady pathway to a pace of growth that will result in significant job creation. We are in for a long slog. We had a snapback in growth in the third quarter and can expect that will continue in the current quarter. But looking into 2010 and perhaps to 2011, the most likely outcome is for growth to be suboptimal, unemployment to remain a vexing problem and inflation to remain subdued." Mon, Nov 9, 2009 14:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/eclett/2009/el0908.html http://dallasfed.org/research/eclett/2009/el0908.html Concerns that the current financial crisis may lead to a reversal of globalization are in many ways overblown, according to the latest issue of the Dallas Fed's Economic Letter. Mon, Nov 9, 2009 11:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/institute/update/2009/int0907.cfm http://dallasfed.org/institute/update/2009/int0907.cfm While the economic outlook has generally improved, there remain some causes for concern. Early third quarter GDP shows some countries growing robustly, while there are still negative signs for others. Though some financial indicators show dramatic improvement, credit remains tight and most central banks have yet to unwind monetary stimulus. Signs of an economic recovery are out there, but they keep getting blurred by downside risks. Fri, Oct 30, 2009 10:30 CST http://www.dallasfed.org/data/pce/index.html http://www.dallasfed.org/data/pce/index.html The trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for September was an annualized 0.6 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for September was 1.4 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 1.5 percent. Mon, Oct 26, 2009 9:30 CST http://dallasfed.org/data/outlook/2009/tmos0910.html http://dallasfed.org/data/outlook/2009/tmos0910.html Texas factory activity declined in October, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key indicator of current manufacturing activity, edged further into negative territory, suggesting output in October contracted after remaining stable in September. Wed, Oct 21, 2009 13:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/beige/2009/bb091021.html http://dallasfed.org/research/beige/2009/bb091021.html The Federal Reserve System's latest Beige Book survey has been released. The Dallas Beige Book, along with a link to the national summary and reports from other Federal Reserve Districts, is available online. Tues, Oct 13, 2009 12:45 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/energy/en0903.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/energy/en0903.cfm Oil prices have hovered around $70 per barrel for two months. While up more than 50 percent this year, prices are still more than 30 percent below year-ago levels. Natural gas has rebounded from its recent lows, but oil continues to trade at a significant premium on an energy content basis. Tues, Oct 13, 2009 9:45 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2009/0906.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/update-us/2009/0906.cfm As we enter the final quarter of 2009, a number of important indicators are beginning to show expansion, suggesting that the trough of the current contraction may have come in the second quarter of this year. However, not all incoming information has been positive. Some data suggest that any optimism should be tempered, that this fledgling recovery has a long way to go before the economy achieves stability, and that the key word moving forward is "uncertainty." Wed, Oct 7, 2009 9:45 CST http://dallasfed.org/institute/update/2009/int0906.cfm http://dallasfed.org/institute/update/2009/int0906.cfm There are positive signals in the international data, although trouble spots still exist. Emerging markets were showing strong growth in the second quarter. Some advanced economies began growing as well. However, unemployment is rising in most countries, and credit growth in Europe is stagnant. Inflation remains low (negative in some cases) in advanced economies. Wed, Oct 7, 2009 9:30 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/papers/2009/index.html http://dallasfed.org/research/papers/2009/index.html "How Robust Are Popular Models of Nominal Frictions?" and "Improving the ACCRA U.S. Regional Cost of Living Index" Thurs, Oct 1, 2009 9:45 CST http://dallasfed.org/data/pce/index.html http://dallasfed.org/data/pce/index.html The trimmed mean PCE inflation rate for August was an annualized 1.3 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for August was 4.2 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 1.1 percent. Wed, Sept 30, 2009 9:30 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/eclett/2009/el0907.html http://dallasfed.org/research/eclett/2009/el0907.html The latest Economic Letter explores how the Fed's recent policy actions have slowed the adverse feedback loop that began when global financial turmoil ended a boom partly fueled by risky mortgage lending. Mon, Sept 28, 2009 9:30 CST http://dallasfed.org/data/outlook/2009/tmos0909.html http://dallasfed.org/data/outlook/2009/tmos0909.html Texas factory activity showed the first signs of bottoming out in September, according to the business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key indicator of current manufacturing activity, came in close to zero as the number of companies seeing increases and decreases was nearly equal. Tues, Sept 22, 2009 14:05 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/eclett/2009/el0906.html http://dallasfed.org/research/eclett/2009/el0906.html The latest Economic Letter finds that new securitization issues increased and risk spreads declined after the TALF began operations. Wed, Sept 9, 2009 12:55 CST http://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2009/fs090909.cfm http://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2009/fs090909.cfm "As to the Federal Reserve reducing its balance sheet so as not to monetize the excess reserves waiting to be converted to bank loans to the private sector, I have been very clear: Given the lag between the time monetary policy is initiated and when it impacts the economy, that wind-down process needs to begin as soon as there are convincing signs that economic growth is gaining traction and that the lending capacity of the banking system is capable of expansion" Thurs, Sept 3, 2009 20:00 CST http://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2009/fs090903.cfm http://dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2009/fs090903.cfm "I envision an output path going forward from here that looks something like a check mark, with the Johnny Mercer effect giving us a near-term snapback from the short, intense downstroke, followed by a transition to a long period of slower growth corresponding to the elongated side of the mark." Thurs, Sept 3, 2009 14:30 CST http://dallasfed.org/institute/update/2009/int0905.cfm http://dallasfed.org/institute/update/2009/int0905.cfm The outlook for U.S. and global growth remains uncertain, but the prospects have improved somewhat. The banking sector appears to have stabilized, but significant levels of slack have accumulated during the current recession (especially in the advanced economies), contributing to the perception that inflation may remain below its long-run trend for a while. Tues, Sept 1, 2009 9:30 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/swe/2009/swe0903b.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/swe/2009/swe0903b.cfm Despite being hit hard by a severe global recession, a crackdown on drug cartels, a flu epidemic and trade disputes with the U.S, Mexico has managed to avoid a full-blown crisis, thanks to its efforts to reduce financial vulnerability and deal with several economic shocks. Tues, Sept 1, 2009 9:30 CST http://dallasfed.org/research/swe/2009/swe0903c.cfm http://dallasfed.org/research/swe/2009/swe0903c.cfm Any significant trade restrictions imposed by the U.S. or other countries, especially Latin American nations, could hurt Texas' exports.