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Research

Discover latest Dallas Fed Research on key issues affecting the economy and monetary policy. Find economic data on Eleventh District performance and selected topics.

Economic Letter

Is the Next Recession Around the Corner? Probably Not

A “profits recession” often predicts a real recession. A view of recessions as gluts of competition explains why this time a real recession is not imminent.

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In Focus
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Dallas Fed Surveys

The Dallas Fed conducts recurring surveys of over 900 business executives in manufacturing, services, energy, and ag lending across Texas and the broader Eleventh Federal Reserve District.

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Economic Letter

Provides timely commentary on the important trends and policy issues shaping our rapidly globalizing, increasingly interconnected economy.

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Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE).

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Southwest Economy

A quarterly publication featuring in-depth articles and interviews about Texas and the surrounding region, as well as Mexico.

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Economic Updates

Dallas Fed economists review recent economic conditions in the region, U.S. and the world.

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Economic Indicators

Economic indicators offers a snapshot of the economy in various Texas metros.

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Working Papers

Working papers from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas are preliminary drafts circulated for professional comment.

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Research by Topic

Research organized by topic

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Highlights

Texas Economy

Texas Employment Forecast

The Dallas Fed's Texas employment forecast projects job growth for the calendar year.

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Working Papers

Unauthorized Mexican Workers in the United States

This paper provides estimates of the number of newly arriving unauthorized workers from Mexico, the principal source of unauthorized immigrants to the United States, and examines how the inflow is related to U.S. and Mexico economic conditions.

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Global Economy

International House Price Database

The international house price database comprises quarterly house price and personal disposable income (PDI) series for a number of countries.

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Southwest Economy

Less Involuntary Part-Time Work Suggests Texas Economic Strength

While the ranks of involuntary part-timers have remained persistently high since the Great Recession the pattern has been less notable in Texas.

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Other News
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Economic Letter

Is the Next Recession Around the Corner? Probably Not

A “profits recession” often predicts a real recession. A view of recessions as gluts of competition explains why this time a real recession is not imminent.

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Economic Letter

U.S. Productivity Growth Flowing Downstream

Measurements of U.S. productivity growth have declined, particularly in the high-tech sector.

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Special Report

At the Heart of Texas

This special report is a comprehensive look at the industry clusters, history and demographics shaping eight of Texas' key metropolitan areas.

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