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March 5, 2024
Anton Cheremukhin
At first glance, it seems unlikely that the unemployment rate would remain stable if the number of job vacancies decreased. However, such a scenario played out recently as the number of firms seeking to fill positions by poaching employees from other firms increased, while the ranks of the unemployed remained relatively stable.
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February 20, 2024
Tyler Atkinson and Ron Mau
As money demand changes, and in particular as money velocity fluctuates with interest rates, this relationship can become unstable with money growth providing limited useful information for inflation forecasting.
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February 13, 2024
Andrew J. Fieldhouse and Karel Mertens
Our estimates indicate that government-funded R&D accounts for roughly one quarter of all business sector productivity growth since World War II, including one quarter of the deceleration in productivity growth since the late 1960s.
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February 6, 2024
Emily Kerr and Ana Pranger
Texas economic growth remains healthy while gradually reverting to a more historically normal pace of expansion following the pandemic when a bust in the first half of 2020 preceded a subsequent boom.
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January 16, 2024
Pon Sagnanert and Xiaoqing Zhou
After comparing economic data of the U.S. and other major advanced economies, we find tentative evidence that the slow adjustment of the outstanding mortgage rate in the U.S. has not played an important role in delaying the intended effects of the monetary tightening.
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January 9, 2024
Philippe Bacchetta, J. Scott Davis and Eric van Wincoop
U.S. dollars are hard to find in foreign markets during times of heightened risk, as evidenced by two interesting and related features in the post-2007 international financial landscape.
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January 2, 2024
Alexander W. Richter and Xiaoqing Zhou
Consumption was not a main driver of GDP declines in previous recessions, and a recession is not necessarily preceded by declines in consumer spending.
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December 21, 2023
Diego Morales-Burnett and Luis Torres
Texas economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter, with job growth falling sharply in October and business activity contracting slightly in November.
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December 19, 2023
Ron Mau and Fang Yang
The existence of large sums in state and local government coffers runs counter to historic post-recession trends. State and local governments usually grapple with budget shortfalls due to rising social program demands and weak revenue streams following recessions.
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November 28, 2023
Dylan Ryfe and Alessio Saretto
Because of their prominence, reciprocal deposits are important in the broader discussion of deposit insurance. Though they have the potential to increase banks’ moral hazard, they also bring increased trust and safety to the banking system.