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Econometrics

COVID-19 Risks Expose Vulnerabilities, Downside Risks to U.S. Outlook

Jarod Coulter and Enrique Martínez-García

The COVID-19 crisis has adversely affected the U.S. economy, helping account for a projected 3.4 percent contraction in 2020. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) anticipates a strong 4.6 percent rebound in 2021, making up for those losses.

March 02, 2021

Systemic Risks, Interdependencies Weigh on 2021 Global Outlook

Jarod Coulter and Enrique Martínez-García

The path of economic recovery from the COVID-19 recession remains far from clear. A fitful rollout of vaccines and governmental responses to new variants of the virus loom over a global growth rebound that private forecasters estimate at 5.5 percent for 2021.

February 16, 2021

The Production Process Drives Fluctuations in Output and Uncertainty

Tyler Atkinson, Michael Plante, Alexander W. Richter and Nathaniel A. Throckmorton

If economic developments drive most of the changes in uncertainty—rather than the reverse—then the direct effect of a change in uncertainty on economic activity is much smaller than previous research has shown.

June 30, 2020

Crude Oil Price Changes Quicker to Register at Gasoline Pump

Alexander Chudik

How big an impact should we expect on gasoline prices? Based on recent research, most of the initial effect showed up quickly at the pump.

October 01, 2019

U.S. Tax Cuts Boost Economy—but for How Long?

Karel Mertens

Did the U.S. tax cuts boost economic activity in 2018? The answer is yes, at least according to the recent empirical literature on the macroeconomic effects of taxes.

June 04, 2019

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