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Economic Conditions

After the Bust, the Long Road to Housing Finance Reform

W. Scott Frame and Joseph Tracy

The Treasury recently released a plan proposing several administrative and legislative changes aimed at returning Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the private sector after more than a decade of federal control.

January 14, 2020

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2019

Gentrification Transforming Neighborhoods in Big Texas Cities

Yichen Su

An influx of new, affluent residents has descended on gentrifying neighborhoods around Texas’ four largest cities, while increasing housing costs have led some low-income households and at-risk populations to locate in more suburban areas.

December 30, 2019

Texas Economy Picks Up in October; Data Revisions Show Weaker 2019 Growth

Keith Phillips, Judy Teng and Timothy Sherman

Texas job growth picked up in October, although the energy sector continued to slip and manufacturing activity weakened.

December 19, 2019

Moderate Wage Growth Spurs Search for ‘Hidden Slack’ in Labor Market

Michael Morris, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

In recent years, much has been made about the idea of hidden slack—unused labor capacity not captured by the unemployment rate.

December 17, 2019

Global Perspectives: Douglas Holtz-Eakin on Economic Projections, Deficits and Climate Change

Mark A. Wynne

Holtz-Eakin and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed Holtz-Eakin’s career as an economist, the economy, deficits and climate change.

December 12, 2019

Hours Worked by Women Age 55 to 61 Confound Labor Market Analysis

Carlos E. Zarazaga and Andrew Gross

The seemingly anomalous low LIUR of one particular demographic group poses a challenge for assessing the extent to which the U.S. economy is currently close to full employment.

November 26, 2019

Economic Policy Uncertainty Emerges as Drag on Stock Market

Pavel Kapinos and Alex Musatov

Over the past two years, virtually all of the downside pressure on stock prices has come from the elevated levels of such uncertainty.

November 19, 2019

What’s Up (or Not Up) with Wages?

Michael Morris, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

This is the third of three articles that talk about the natural rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate that would prevail in a “neutral” labor market after removing all movement due to the business cycle.

November 12, 2019

Texas Economy Still Growing, Though Pace Slows

Carlee Crocker and Yichen Su

The regional economy is growing at a slower pace than in recent months, with Texas labor markets remaining tight. Energy activity has declined, and export growth has slowed this year.

November 07, 2019

Consumer Surveys Suggest Economic Conditions Remain Healthy but Growth Is Slowing

Alexander W. Richter and Tyler Atkinson

The current divergence between two prominent consumer confidence indexes suggests that policymakers need to be mindful of a U.S. economy in transition.

November 05, 2019

Global Perspectives: Glenn Hubbard on Immigration, Economic Dynamism and Limits of Monetary Policy

Mark A. Wynne

Hubbard and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed his experiences working in the George W. Bush administration and immigration's impact on the workforce.

October 29, 2019

Failed Background Check, Drug Testing Stall Hiring of Low-Skilled Workers

Wenhua Di, Emily Kerr and Christopher Slijk

Many companies seek to add employees as the state economy continues expanding at an above-average pace. But not all can find the workers they need.

October 17, 2019

Labor Market Slack Disappeared by 2016

Michael Morris, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

This is the second of three articles that talk about the natural rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate that would prevail in a “neutral” labor market after removing all movement due to the business cycle.

October 15, 2019

A Natural Approach to Estimating the ‘Natural Rate’ of Unemployment

Michael Morris, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

The unemployment rate is a widely viewed gauge of U.S. labor market slack or tightness. Because of structural changes to the labor market over time, assessments about slack/tightness require a reference point called the “natural rate of unemployment.”

October 08, 2019

Texas Economy Keeps Growing Despite More Pessimistic Outlook

Chloe Smith, Christopher Slijk and Pia M. Orrenius

The regional economy is growing at a moderate pace, and labor markets remain tight. However, the outlook among Texas firms has deteriorated due to concern about tariffs, trade policy uncertainty and slowing global growth.

September 26, 2019

Research Events

Forging a New Path in North American Trade and Immigration

This conference explored what the future may bring to this deep economic relationship and the challenges and opportunities presented by the proposed United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA).

September 26, 2019

Global Perspectives: Ruth J. Simmons on Trailblazing and Education

Mark A. Wynne

Simmons and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed her decision to become an educator, her experience in academia and the importance of educational opportunity.

September 17, 2019

Domestic Migration to Texas Slows as National Labor Markets Tighten

Keith R. Phillips and Alexander T. Abraham

Despite a strong economy and historically low unemployment rates in Texas, net domestic migration to Texas from other states has slowed since 2015.

September 03, 2019

GDP Gain Realized in Shale Boom’s First 10 Years

Mine Yücel and Michael D. Plante

The U.S. shale boom has benefited the nation’s oil trade balance and oil-producing regions and led to unusually large employment and output gains.

August 20, 2019

Services, Construction Lead Texas as Manufacturing, Energy Soften

Laila Assanie and Chloe N. Smith

Sluggish growth in manufacturing is attributable to softening demand for durables, which appears tied to a slowing energy sector.

August 08, 2019

Another Benefit of Trimming: Smaller Inflation Revisions

Jim Dolmas

With the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate, what you see in real time is closer to what you get after revision than is the case with the more conventional measure of core inflation, PCE excluding food and energy.

August 06, 2019

As Wages Rise, Are Black Workers Seeing the Smallest Gains?

Michael Morris, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

A recent article argued that black workers have received the smallest earnings gains among various groups since the beginning of the Great Recession. Our analysis suggests otherwise.

July 16, 2019

Labor Scarcity, Trade Woes Squeeze Texas Business, Survey Finds

Emily Kerr and Christopher Slijk

Businesses face difficulty both trying to hire in a historically tight labor market and navigating tariffs and trade policy uncertainty.

July 11, 2019

Trade Relationships Affect U.S. Dollar Appreciation’s Impact Across States

Keith R. Phillips and Judy Teng

The value of the U.S. dollar against other currencies has appreciated, making most goods produced in the U.S. more expensive overseas during the past year.

July 09, 2019

Trade Tensions Cloud Outlook as Texas Experiences Moderate Growth

Stephanie Gullo and Anil Kumar

The region’s moderate expansion continues, despite a weakening outlook. Job gains were solid in May, with most industries and major metros adding to payrolls, and labor markets remaining historically tight.

June 27, 2019

U.S. Tax Cuts Boost Economy—but for How Long?

Karel Mertens

Did the U.S. tax cuts boost economic activity in 2018? The answer is yes, at least according to the recent empirical literature on the macroeconomic effects of taxes.

June 04, 2019

Room to Grow? Inflation and Labor Market Slack

Jim Dolmas and Evan F. Koenig

Compared with the usual ex-food-and-energy measure, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate sends a clearer, more reliable signal about whether cyclical inflation pressures are building.

May 30, 2019

Which Core to Believe? Trimmed Mean Versus Ex-Food-and-Energy Inflation

Jim Dolmas and Evan F. Koenig

Twice since 2014, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation—inflation excluding food and energy—decelerated sharply, only to ultimately reverse course.

May 28, 2019

Breakeven Oil Prices Underscore Shale’s Impact on the Market

Michael D. Plante and Kunal Patel

The oil price that companies need to profitably drill new wells has closely tracked prices for long-dated oil futures in recent years. The emergence of U.S. shale production seems to be playing a large role in anchoring long-term oil prices.

May 21, 2019

Dallas Fed’s Texas Jobs Estimates Provide Early, Accurate Assessment

Keith R. Phillips and Alexander T. Abraham

The Bureau of Labor Statistics annually revises regional job estimates in a process called benchmarking. A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas adjustment provides researchers a more current means of assessing Texas economic conditions.

May 16, 2019

Three Macroeconomic Factors to Watch in Equity Markets

Everett Grant and Julieta Yung

Machine learning has helped make music playlist recommendations, facilitated self-driving cars and even interpreted patients’ medical test results.

May 14, 2019

Texas Economy Rebounds from Year-End Slowdown, Grows at Moderate Pace

Jason Saving and Judy Teng

Texas economic activity expanded moderately in the first quarter after downshifting markedly in November and December.

May 09, 2019

Global Perspectives: Janet Yellen on Becoming an Economist, Being Fed Chair and Views on Fed Independence

Mark Wynne

Janet Yellen holds a unique place in Federal Reserve history. It all began with a year as a humble Fed staff economist in 1977.

April 18, 2019

Online Retailing, Self-Employment Disrupt Inflation

John V. Duca

The employment status of increasing numbers of workers has become contingent in recent years—that is, there is greater freelance, or “gig,” employment. This development has coincided over the past two decades with an era of increasing online commerce that provides consumers a wider array of products and services at competitive prices.

April 16, 2019

Texas Economic Activity Stabilizes, but Slower Job Growth Is Ahead

Jesus Cañas and Benjamin Meier

Output growth in Texas has stabilized after a relatively robust 2018. However, a tight labor market, slowing energy activity and weakening global demand will restrain Texas growth during 2019, an assessment consistent with the Dallas Fed’s outlook for the year.

April 04, 2019

Global Perspectives: Greg Mankiw on Economic Advice, Climate Change and Trade

Mark Wynne

Mankiw and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed some of the things that economists don't understand about politicians (and that politicians don't understand about economists).

March 28, 2019

Global Perspectives: Richard Clarida on U.S. Monetary Policy

Mark Wynne

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida discusses a range of topics, including the challenges facing monetary policymakers, the U.S. fiscal situation and the global role of the dollar.

March 07, 2019

Corporate Debt as a Potential Amplifier in a Slowdown

Robert S. Kaplan

In his latest essay, posted on Dallas Fed Economics, President Rob Kaplan focuses on trends in corporate debt growth and credit quality in the U.S. and discusses potential implications for economic conditions and financial stability.

March 05, 2019

Changes in Labor Force Participation Help Explain Recent Job Gains

Alex Richter, Tyler Atkinson and Laton Russell

The U.S. labor force participation rate declined following the Great Recession to a low of 62.3 percent in 2015.

February 19, 2019

Dallas Fed Energy Survey Suggests Oil Price Drop Won’t Cause Sector Collapse in 2019

Michael D. Plante and Kunal Patel

Following a banner year in 2018, will U.S. oil producers retrench and reduce capital spending after the recent double-digit oil price decline? The latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey provides some clues about what may be next.

February 14, 2019

Inverted Yield Curve (Nearly Always) Signals Tight Monetary Policy, Rising Unemployment

Evan F. Koenig and Keith R. Phillips

With long-term interest rates falling and short-term rates rising, there has been increasing talk of a possible yield-curve inversion and speculation about what an inversion might mean for the U.S. economy.

February 12, 2019

The Value of Patience

Robert S. Kaplan

In his latest essay, posted on Dallas Fed Economics, President Rob Kaplan provides his assessment of current economic conditions and implications for monetary policy.

February 05, 2019

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