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Economic Conditions

Texas Economy’s Rebound Stalls in July after Gains in May, June

Christopher Slijk and Keighton Hines

The resurgence of COVID-19 in July appears to have reversed economic gains in Texas that emerged when the virus’ frequency abated in May and June.

August 06, 2020

U.S. Economic Rebound Uneven amid Resurgent Local COVID-19 Outbreaks

Tyler Atkinson, Jackson Crawford, Sam Dannels and Andrew Gross

A full recovery to pre-pandemic levels of economic activity appears unlikely until the virus is under control.

August 04, 2020

Entry, Exit of Firms Amplify the Business Cycle

Joshua Bernstein, Alexander W. Richter and Nathaniel A. Throckmorton

When new businesses are created, they generate new jobs. When unprofitable businesses close, employees lose their jobs. Given the connection between firm entry and exit and changes in employment, it is natural to ask how this entry and exit affects the broader business cycle.

July 14, 2020

The Production Process Drives Fluctuations in Output and Uncertainty

Tyler Atkinson, Michael Plante, Alexander W. Richter and Nathaniel A. Throckmorton

If economic developments drive most of the changes in uncertainty—rather than the reverse—then the direct effect of a change in uncertainty on economic activity is much smaller than previous research has shown.

June 30, 2020

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2020

Small Business Hardships Highlight Relationship with Lenders in COVID-19 Era

Wenhua Di, Nathaniel Pattison and Chloe Smith

The COVID-19 crisis has disrupted normal small business operations and will likely limit the ability of many enterprises to stay financially afloat.

June 23, 2020

COVID-19’s Unprecedented Impact Alters U.S. Labor Market

Joshua Bernstein, Alexander W. Richter and Nathaniel A. Throckmorton

A staggering 22.03 million initial claims for unemployment benefits were filed from mid-March to mid-April as the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing stay-at-home policies took hold across the country.

June 23, 2020

Texas Jobs Decline at Historic Pace from Impact of COVID-19

Anil Kumar and Judy Teng

The decrease affected all major metro areas, with the steepest drops coming in El Paso, Fort Worth and Austin, followed closely by Houston, San Antonio and Dallas.

June 18, 2020

Global Perspectives: Donald Kohn on Greenspan and Bernanke, the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 Challenge

Mark A. Wynne

Kohn and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed Kohn’s career at the Fed, his experience during the Global Financial Crisis and his thoughts on the Fed’s reaction to the current crisis.

June 02, 2020

Early Mandated Social Distancing Does Best to Control COVID–19 Spread

Alexander Chudik, Hashem Pesaran, Alessandro Rebucci

Voluntary social distancing and a lack of compliance with mandated polices have led to unnecessarily high infection rates and death tolls in a number of countries.

May 28, 2020

CARES Act Likely to Blunt Mortgage Delinquency Rate Increase

Xiaoqing Zhou

Household survey data and recent unemployment forecasts provide a basis for estimating the share of mortgage borrowers that—absent the CARES Act—would have missed a mortgage payment due to the economic shutdown.

May 26, 2020

Real-Time Population Survey Suggests U.S. Job Losses Slowed in Early May

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Karel Mertens

Survey results for the week of May 10 suggest further declines in employment and an increase in unemployment relative to the week of April 26 – May 2, though both changes are within the survey’s margin of error.

May 22, 2020

Dallas Fed Mobility and Engagement Index Gives Insight into COVID-19’s Economic Impact

Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas, Christoffer Koch, Evan Koenig, Karel Mertens, Anthony Murphy and Kei-Mu Yi

To gain insight into the economic impact of the pandemic, we developed an index of mobility and engagement, based on geolocation data collected from a large sample of mobile devices. (Revised June 3, 2020)

May 21, 2020

How Falling Oil Prices in Early 2020 Weakened the U.S. Economy

Lutz Kilian, Michael D. Plante and Xiaoqing Zhou

The benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price of oil dropped by more than half from Jan. 21 to April 3. This oil price decline has weakened rather than strengthened the U.S. economy, making this event different from past episodes of falling oil prices.

May 19, 2020

Real-Time Survey to Provide Timelier Labor Market Data in Era of COVID-19

Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin and Karel Mertens

An effective economic policy response to the rapidly evolving coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis requires timely and accurate information on its impact. To help reduce the information gap, we introduce the Real-Time Population Survey.

May 15, 2020

Falling Oil Prices Drag Down U.S. Business Investment

Garrett Golding, Martin Stuermer and Jesse Thompson

The dramatic decline in the price of oil has led to massive investment reductions by U.S. oil and gas producers.

May 14, 2020

Texas Economic Activity Sharply Falls in Wake of COVID-19

Laila Assanie and Chloe Smith

Virus containment measures have prompted unprecedented declines in demand and triggered mass layoffs, shaking business and consumer confidence.

May 07, 2020

Global Perspectives: Tom Hoenig on the Costs of COVID-19, Modern Monetary Theory and Fed Leadership

Mark A. Wynne

Hoenig and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed Hoenig’s views on the costs of the current crisis, potential solutions and the elements of effective leadership at the Fed.

April 28, 2020

Monetary Policy in Time of Pandemic

Evan F. Koenig

Some monetary policy strategies have greater potential than others to mitigate pandemic-related financial strains.

April 16, 2020

Working from Home During a Pandemic: It’s Not for Everyone

Yichen Su

Because working remotely can offset the negative effects of shelter-in-place and social distancing policies on employment and earnings, knowing how many workers can do so is crucial to understanding the impact of such measures on our workforce.

April 07, 2020

Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2020

Mexico’s Higher Costs Under USMCA May Potentially Offset Gains from China-Related Trade Spurt with U.S.

Daniel Chiquiar, Jesus Cañas, Armando Aguirre and Alfonso Cebreros

Approval of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) could change trade within the North American region, affecting output and weakening North America’s global competitiveness.

April 06, 2020

How the Saudi Decision to Launch a Price War Is Reshaping the Global Oil Market

Lutz Kilian

In the second week of March, the already fragile global oil market was rocked by Saudi Arabia’s announcement that it would expand oil production to unprecedented levels, signaling an end to its price cooperation with Russia.

April 02, 2020

Texas Economic Activity Suddenly Contracts in March; Outlook Worsens Due to COVID-19

Jesus Cañas and Carlee Crocker

The economic downturn in Texas has begun, recent data suggest.

March 31, 2020

Dallas Fed Energy Survey Results Point to Bleak Outlook for Oil Industry

Michael D. Plante and Kunal Patel

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has plunged more than 50 percent since the start of the year as the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has taken hold and OPEC has failed to agree on global supply cuts.

March 26, 2020

Global Perspectives: William Dudley on the Financial Crisis, the New York Fed and Misconceptions about the Fed

Mark A. Wynne

Dudley and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan discussed Dudley’s role during the financial crisis, his leadership of the New York Fed and popular misconceptions about the Fed.

March 10, 2020

Marrying for Money Ends Up Reducing Income Inequality

Anton Cheremukhin and Antonella Tutino

The marriage market constitutes a way to ameliorate income inequality in the U.S. and to create bridges across the income ladder.

March 03, 2020

An Assessment of Economic Conditions and the Stance of Monetary Policy

Robert S. Kaplan

In his latest essay, posted on Dallas Fed Economics, President Rob Kaplan provides his assessment of current economic conditions, the outlook for the energy industry, and the current stance of monetary policy.

February 18, 2020

Economics of Love: Rejection Worth Chance at Dream Date

Anton Cheremukhin and Antonella Tutino

With the advance of social networks and increasing prevalence of online dating, the question of how men and women match up has gained importance in economics and society.

February 11, 2020

Texas Economy Building Momentum to Start Year

Emily Kerr and Chloe Smith

Growth in the Texas economy picked up at year-end 2019 and accelerated into January and job gains in December were accompanied by service sector growth.

February 06, 2020

The Long Road to Housing Finance Reform: 'Are We There Yet?'

W. Scott Frame and Joseph Tracy

Over the past decade, broad-based legislative reforms for housing finance have proven elusive. However, reflecting lessons from the financial crisis, a political consensus has emerged on how Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should operate.

February 04, 2020

After the Bust, the Long Road to Housing Finance Reform

W. Scott Frame and Joseph Tracy

The Treasury recently released a plan proposing several administrative and legislative changes aimed at returning Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to the private sector after more than a decade of federal control.

January 14, 2020

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2019

Gentrification Transforming Neighborhoods in Big Texas Cities

Yichen Su

An influx of new, affluent residents has descended on gentrifying neighborhoods around Texas’ four largest cities, while increasing housing costs have led some low-income households and at-risk populations to locate in more suburban areas.

December 30, 2019

Texas Economy Picks Up in October; Data Revisions Show Weaker 2019 Growth

Keith Phillips, Judy Teng and Timothy Sherman

Texas job growth picked up in October, although the energy sector continued to slip and manufacturing activity weakened.

December 19, 2019

Moderate Wage Growth Spurs Search for ‘Hidden Slack’ in Labor Market

Michael Morris, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

In recent years, much has been made about the idea of hidden slack—unused labor capacity not captured by the unemployment rate.

December 17, 2019

Global Perspectives: Douglas Holtz-Eakin on Economic Projections, Deficits and Climate Change

Mark A. Wynne

Holtz-Eakin and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed Holtz-Eakin’s career as an economist, the economy, deficits and climate change.

December 12, 2019

Hours Worked by Women Age 55 to 61 Confound Labor Market Analysis

Carlos E. Zarazaga and Andrew Gross

The seemingly anomalous low LIUR of one particular demographic group poses a challenge for assessing the extent to which the U.S. economy is currently close to full employment.

November 26, 2019

Economic Policy Uncertainty Emerges as Drag on Stock Market

Pavel Kapinos and Alex Musatov

Over the past two years, virtually all of the downside pressure on stock prices has come from the elevated levels of such uncertainty.

November 19, 2019

What’s Up (or Not Up) with Wages?

Michael Morris, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

This is the third of three articles that talk about the natural rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate that would prevail in a “neutral” labor market after removing all movement due to the business cycle.

November 12, 2019

Texas Economy Still Growing, Though Pace Slows

Carlee Crocker and Yichen Su

The regional economy is growing at a slower pace than in recent months, with Texas labor markets remaining tight. Energy activity has declined, and export growth has slowed this year.

November 07, 2019

Consumer Surveys Suggest Economic Conditions Remain Healthy but Growth Is Slowing

Alexander W. Richter and Tyler Atkinson

The current divergence between two prominent consumer confidence indexes suggests that policymakers need to be mindful of a U.S. economy in transition.

November 05, 2019

Global Perspectives: Glenn Hubbard on Immigration, Economic Dynamism and Limits of Monetary Policy

Mark A. Wynne

Hubbard and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed his experiences working in the George W. Bush administration and immigration's impact on the workforce.

October 29, 2019

Failed Background Check, Drug Testing Stall Hiring of Low-Skilled Workers

Wenhua Di, Emily Kerr and Christopher Slijk

Many companies seek to add employees as the state economy continues expanding at an above-average pace. But not all can find the workers they need.

October 17, 2019

Labor Market Slack Disappeared by 2016

Michael Morris, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

This is the second of three articles that talk about the natural rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate that would prevail in a “neutral” labor market after removing all movement due to the business cycle.

October 15, 2019

A Natural Approach to Estimating the ‘Natural Rate’ of Unemployment

Michael Morris, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

The unemployment rate is a widely viewed gauge of U.S. labor market slack or tightness. Because of structural changes to the labor market over time, assessments about slack/tightness require a reference point called the “natural rate of unemployment.”

October 08, 2019

Texas Economy Keeps Growing Despite More Pessimistic Outlook

Chloe Smith, Christopher Slijk and Pia M. Orrenius

The regional economy is growing at a moderate pace, and labor markets remain tight. However, the outlook among Texas firms has deteriorated due to concern about tariffs, trade policy uncertainty and slowing global growth.

September 26, 2019

Research Events

Forging a New Path in North American Trade and Immigration

This conference explored what the future may bring to this deep economic relationship and the challenges and opportunities presented by the proposed United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA).

September 26, 2019

Global Perspectives: Ruth J. Simmons on Trailblazing and Education

Mark A. Wynne

Simmons and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed her decision to become an educator, her experience in academia and the importance of educational opportunity.

September 17, 2019

Domestic Migration to Texas Slows as National Labor Markets Tighten

Keith R. Phillips and Alexander T. Abraham

Despite a strong economy and historically low unemployment rates in Texas, net domestic migration to Texas from other states has slowed since 2015.

September 03, 2019

GDP Gain Realized in Shale Boom’s First 10 Years

Mine Yücel and Michael D. Plante

The U.S. shale boom has benefited the nation’s oil trade balance and oil-producing regions and led to unusually large employment and output gains.

August 20, 2019

Services, Construction Lead Texas as Manufacturing, Energy Soften

Laila Assanie and Chloe N. Smith

Sluggish growth in manufacturing is attributable to softening demand for durables, which appears tied to a slowing energy sector.

August 08, 2019

Another Benefit of Trimming: Smaller Inflation Revisions

Jim Dolmas

With the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate, what you see in real time is closer to what you get after revision than is the case with the more conventional measure of core inflation, PCE excluding food and energy.

August 06, 2019

As Wages Rise, Are Black Workers Seeing the Smallest Gains?

Michael Morris, Robert Rich and Joseph Tracy

A recent article argued that black workers have received the smallest earnings gains among various groups since the beginning of the Great Recession. Our analysis suggests otherwise.

July 16, 2019

Labor Scarcity, Trade Woes Squeeze Texas Business, Survey Finds

Emily Kerr and Christopher Slijk

Businesses face difficulty both trying to hire in a historically tight labor market and navigating tariffs and trade policy uncertainty.

July 11, 2019

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