Texas Economy

Signs of Slowdown Growing in Texas; Price Pressures Ease

Mytiah Caldwell and Yichen Su

The Texas economy continued expanding in June and July, though at a decelerating pace compared with earlier this year.

August 04, 2022

Texas Economy

Texas Service Sector Growth Holds Steady in July

Activity in the Texas service sector increased moderately in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

July 26, 2022

Texas Economy

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Growth in Texas factory activity continued at a modest pace in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

July 25, 2022

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2022

Looking Back: Harris County Five Years After Hurricane Harvey Hit

Luis Torres

We look back five years, when then-Harris County Judge Ed Emmett went “On the Record” in Southwest Economy to discuss the response to Hurricane Harvey.

July 01, 2022

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2022

Spotlight: Federal Dollars Could Drive Electric Vehicle Charging Across Texas

Jessica Rindels and Michael D. Plante

Consumers who are reluctant to switch to electric vehicles cite inadequate charging facilities. The federal Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act seeks to address such concerns, providing funding to expand charging infrastructure along interstates and in rural areas.

July 01, 2022

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2022

Around the Region: Texas Home Prices Rose at Record Pace in 2021

Luis Torres

The buyer frenzy in Texas housing markets began in summer 2020, just months after COVID-19 shut down the economy in March and April.

July 01, 2022

Texas Economy

Texas Service Sector Growth Strengthens in June

Activity in the Texas service sector picked up modestly in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.

June 28, 2022

Texas Economy

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Growth in Texas factory activity decelerated sharply in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.

June 27, 2022

Surveys

Dallas Fed Energy Survey

Activity in the oil and gas sector expanded at a robust pace in second quarter 2022, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

June 23, 2022

Texas Economy Retains Strength Despite Weakening Outlooks

Laila Assanie and Keighton Hines

Texas’ economic expansion remained solid in May, though the pace of growth decelerated. Employment gains continued to be robust. Manufacturing output growth accelerated, but revenue growth in services slowed.

June 23, 2022

Texas Job Growth Moderates as Price Pressures, Supply-Chain Issues Persist

Anil Kumar and Juliette Coia

Texas employment growth eased in March, though it remained steady in the first quarter and exceeded U.S. job growth.

May 12, 2022

Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2022

Around the Region: Texas Reclaims Jobs Lost in Pandemic; Some Metros Still Trying to Catch Up

Juliette Coia and Pia Orrenius

The recovery from the pandemic recession ushered in a massive reallocation of employment between industries with repercussions for different areas of the state.

April 01, 2022

Texas Economy Strengthens as Omicron Fades; Costs and Wages Rise Further

Jesus Cañas and James Lee

The Texas economy, paced by expansion within the service sector, grew strongly in February as the impact of the omicron variant of COVID-19 faded.

March 24, 2022

Federal Aid Helps Border Keep Pace with Texas Economy During Pandemic Turmoil

Jesus Cañas, Pia Orrenius and Juliette Coia

U.S. pandemic relief policies boosted the border economy, helping it keep pace with state growth. The restoration of trade with Mexico and a surprise migration surge also supported more-recent border economic activity.

March 01, 2022

Solar Lights Up Outlook for Renewable Energy in Texas

Kunal Patel and Michael D. Plante

Improving economics and government tax incentives have spurred investment in utility-scale solar facilities in Texas.

February 08, 2022

Pace of Texas Economic Growth Slows as Supply-Chain, Staffing Woes Persist

Emily Kerr and Juliette Coia

The Texas economy continued expanding in December and January, though the pace of growth decelerated relative to the overall fourth-quarter pace.

February 03, 2022

Texas Economy Grows Strongly Despite Mounting Supply-Chain Woes, Worker Shortages

Keith R. Phillips and Judy Teng

Continued growth in the national economy, strong increases in Texas leading indicators and high oil futures prices suggest continued strong job growth for the remainder of the year and into 2022.

December 23, 2021

Southwest Economy, Fourth Quarter 2021

Largest Texas Metros Lure Big-City, Coastal Migrants During Pandemic

Wenli Li and Yichen Su

High-frequency data show that migration to Texas has accelerated during the pandemic. The emergence of working from home has lessened both workers’ and some companies’ reliance on physical offices, clearing the way for the new wave of mobility.

December 15, 2021

Delta Surge Disrupts Texas Firms Less than Earlier COVID-19 Waves, Dallas Fed Surveys Say

Emily Kerr and Christopher Slijk

The overall impact on business of the summer and fall wave of the COVID-19 virus infection was more muted than initial surges because firms were better prepared and demand didn’t plunge as it did before, according to respondents to the Dallas Fed’s Texas Business Outlook Surveys.

November 16, 2021

Texas Economy Grows Rapidly Despite Labor, Supply-Chain Constraints

Judy Teng and Christopher Slijk

Regional economic activity accelerated sharply in September and October following a summer and early-fall peak of a COVID-19 wave tied to the Delta variant.

November 09, 2021

Texas Birth-Rate Decline Complicates Economic Growth Prospects

James Lee, Pia Orrenius and Ana Pranger

Lower birth rates are associated with less growth and a more rapidly aging population and, hence, slower economic expansion.

October 12, 2021

Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2021

Once-Oil-Dependent Texas Economy to Keep Growing as Renewable Energy Expands

Christopher Slijk and Keith R. Phillips

The negative environmental impacts of global warming have motivated the beginnings of a global transition from traditional fossil fuels to renewable energy.

September 30, 2021

Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2021

Federal Support Keeps State Budgets (Including Texas’) Healthy amid Tumult from COVID-19-Induced Economic Ills

Jason Saving

An unprecedented federal fiscal response to the COVID-19-induced recession in early 2020 helped prop up state government finances even among states whose tax and finance structures put them at particular risk during a downturn.

September 30, 2021

Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2021

Spotlight: Missteps Along U.S.–Mexico Border Hinder Movement of COVID-19 Biomedical Trade

Keighton Hines and Roberto Coronado

While most activity in the Paso del Norte region is concentrated in automotive parts and electronic components, a cluster of biomedical manufacturers has emerged in Juárez in recent years.

September 30, 2021

Southwest Economy, Third Quarter 2021

Go Figure: Birth Rates Falling Faster in Texas than U.S.

Design: Olumide Eseyin; Content: James Lee, Pia Orrenius, Ana Pranger

Although birth rates in Texas remain higher than in the U.S., their decline since 2007 has been particularly noteworthy.

September 30, 2021

Supply-Chain Woes, Labor Shortages and COVID-19 Slow Resilient Texas Economy

Pia Orrenius and James Lee

Regional economic growth has slowed, though it remains robust by historical standards. While demand has improved from year-ago levels, supply-chain disruptions and labor shortages have limited output growth and pushed up wages and prices.

September 30, 2021

Surging Renewable Energy in Texas Prompts Electricity Generation Adequacy Questions

Garrett Golding

With little investment taking place in new thermal generation, does the design of Texas’ electricity market provide enough incentive to develop capacity for future power needs?

August 17, 2021

Texas Economy Strongly Expands Despite Supply-Chain Disruptions, Hiring Challenges

Carlee Crocker and Yichen Su

There has been strong upward pressure on prices and wages, though there were some signs of abatement in July. The hot housing market continued to push up apartment rents, housing prices and construction.

August 05, 2021

Spanish-Speaking Growth in Texas Reinforces Need to Close Education Gaps

Enrique Martínez-García, María Teresa Martínez-García, Jarod Coulter and Valerie Grossman

The Eleventh Federal Reserve District has the second-largest native Spanish-language population in the Federal Reserve System. That population will grow further as the number of Hispanics exceeds 20 million in Texas alone by 2050.

August 03, 2021

Global Perspectives: Ursula Burns on Coaching, Diversity and Advancing the Next Generation of Female Leaders

Mark A. Wynne

Burns and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed her career, the importance of coaches and mentors, the case for quotas and advice for the next generation of female leaders.

July 27, 2021

Global Perspectives: Betsy Price on Being Fort Worth Mayor, Governing and Bipartisanship

Mark A. Wynne

Price and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed her political career, the challenges she faced in office and the need for bipartisanship to get government business done.

July 20, 2021

Labor Shortages, Supply Chain Woes Slow Texas Recovery

Laila Assanie and Carlee Crocker

The Texas economy is on the path to a solid recovery, although the pace of growth has eased since March, recent data suggest.

June 24, 2021

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2021

Federal COVID-19 Relief Aided Consumer Debt, Though Immigrant Texans Derived Less Benefit

Wenhua Di and Chloe Smith

The prevalence of various federal-level assistance programs helped U.S. and Texas residents shore up their household finances during the COVID-19 recession. Among mostly immigrant groups, this tendency was less pronounced, likely due to legal and socioeconomic barriers.

June 18, 2021

Southwest Economy, Second Quarter 2021

Spotlight: Oil Patch Productivity Rises; Jobs Vanish

Garrett Golding and Sean Howard

After major oil price busts in 2014 and 2020, the same engineering prowess that helped the oil and gas industry thrive has been driven to find efficiencies to lower operating costs.

June 18, 2021

Texas Economic Activity Springs Ahead as Growth Strengthens

Anil Kumar and Judy Teng

Economic activity in Texas accelerated sharply in March, according to recent data that also indicate a continuation of the strong momentum.

May 06, 2021

Cost of Texas’ 2021 Deep Freeze Justifies Weatherization

Garrett Golding, Anil Kumar and Karel Mertens

Our analysis indicates winterizing for extreme winter weather events appears financially reasonable.

April 15, 2021

Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2021

COVID-19 Slammed into Texas, Leaving Long-Lasting Impacts

Emily Kerr, Judy Teng and Keith Phillips

The economic road from the COVID-19 recession in Texas will likely feature a steeper, more rapid climb than the usual gradual rise associated with most recoveries.

April 09, 2021

Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2021

Spotlight: Pandemic Pushes Texas Minority Unemployment Beyond Highs Reached During Great Recession

Carlee Crocker and Pia Orrenius

Recessions are hardest on minorities; the COVID-19 downturn is no different in that regard. More than half of Texas’ population is Hispanic or Black and the consequences are far-reaching if those groups lag behind economically.

April 09, 2021

Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2021

Go Figure: Collapsing Fuel Demand Tanks Texas Exports During Pandemic’s Peak

Design: Justin Chavira; Content: Emma Marshall, Pia Orrenius

The COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on Texas energy exports. U.S. energy exports excluding Texas were dramatically less affected.

April 09, 2021

Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2021

Snapshot: Dining Out Picks Up in Texas, Houston

The number of patrons dining at restaurants surged in Texas and Houston after the state thawed from a deep freeze in February and COVID-19 constraints on restaurants and bars were lifted March 10.

April 09, 2021

What Can Be Learned from the Persistent Electric Power Outages in Texas?

Lutz Kilian

Texas suffered massive power outages during unusually cold temperatures in February. Millions of households lost access not only to power but also to heat and water for days—a situation that was foreseeable and could have been avoided.

April 01, 2021

Texas Economic Conditions Improve as Price Pressures Build

Jesus Cañas and James Lee

Economic conditions in Texas have improved, with the Texas Business Outlook Surveys in February showing a pickup in growth after a deceleration in January.

March 25, 2021

Anticipated Federal Restrictions Would Slow Permian Basin Production

Garrett Golding and Kunal Patel

Possible changes to leasing and permitting requirements governing federal lands could move oil production, prompting a realignment of Permian Basin activity between Texas and New Mexico.

March 04, 2021

Texas Economy Soft in January, but Outlook Optimistic for Later in 2021

Emily Kerr and Chloe Smith

Regional economic conditions appeared to deteriorate in January after picking up at year-end, data show. Nonetheless, there is optimism regarding the outlook for growth later this year.

February 04, 2021

COVID-19 Resurgence Across Texas Depresses Economic Growth

Keith R. Phillips and Judy Teng

Texas job growth has slowed after new daily COVID-19 cases in the state began surging in mid-October.

December 24, 2020

Impact of COVID-19 on Small Service Firms Clouds Texas Jobs Estimates

Emma Marshall and Keith R. Phillips

The 2020 downturn has differed from past recessions in many ways, particularly affecting high-contact service industries that contain a large number of independent businesses with few employees.

November 17, 2020

Texas Rebound Likely Slowed by Renewed COVID-19 Impact on Services, Retail

Yichen Su and Carlee Crocker

Indicative of slowing job expansion, the Texas unemployment rate rose to 8.3 percent in September from 6.8 percent in August and exceeded the national rate (7.9 percent) for the first time since March.

November 12, 2020

Texas Economy Improves Despite Lagging Sectors as COVID-19 Cases Decline

Pia Orrenius and Chloe Smith

Continued growth is projected for the rest of the year, but it may be somewhat restrained by the expiration of federal stimulus programs and election uncertainty.

September 24, 2020

Texas Weekly Employment Estimate Provides New, Early Economic Insights

Jesus Cañas, Keith R. Phillips and Carlee Crocker

In this environment where economic conditions change very quickly and can reverse with the spread of the virus, tracking the Texas economy requires a timelier indicator than standard quarterly and monthly economic measures.

August 18, 2020

Insights from Dallas Fed Surveys: Uneven Economic Recovery Likely in Texas

Emily Kerr and Christopher Slijk

The Dallas Fed’s Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) show that while recovery continued in some sectors in July, it faltered in others as new COVID-19 cases surged across the state.

August 11, 2020

Texas Economy’s Rebound Stalls in July after Gains in May, June

Christopher Slijk and Keighton Hines

The resurgence of COVID-19 in July appears to have reversed economic gains in Texas that emerged when the virus’ frequency abated in May and June.

August 06, 2020

Texas Jobs Decline at Historic Pace from Impact of COVID-19

Anil Kumar and Judy Teng

The decrease affected all major metro areas, with the steepest drops coming in El Paso, Fort Worth and Austin, followed closely by Houston, San Antonio and Dallas.

June 18, 2020