Economists

Evan F. Koenig

Senior Vice President and Principal Policy Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Evan Koenig serves as the Dallas Fed’s principal monetary policy advisor. In that capacity, he accompanies the Bank’s president to Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, oversees preparations for FOMC and other policy meetings, and briefs the Bank’s president and directors on economic developments and monetary policy issues.

Koenig has been active in economic research for more than three decades. His recent efforts have focused on predicting and explaining movements in prices, output and employment and on understanding monetary policy’s role in the economy. His articles have appeared in such respected scholarly journals as The Quarterly Journal of Economics, The Review of Economics and Statistics, The Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, The International Journal of Central Banking and The Journal of Public Economics.

Before joining the Bank’s Research Department in 1988, Koenig taught at the University of Washington. He is a longtime member of the American Economic Association, honorary member of the Arizona Economic Roundtable, recipient of the Harold Groves Award from the University of Wisconsin and a member of the honor societies Phi Beta Kappa, Phi Kappa Phi and Phi Eta Sigma. He served for many years as adjunct professor at Southern Methodist University.

He earned a bachelor’s degree in economics and mathematics with honors from the University of Wisconsin, and a doctorate in economics from Harvard University.

Curriculum Vitae

Employment History

Senior Vice President and Principal Policy Advisor (Sept. 2013–present); Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Vice President and Senior Policy Advisor (Sept. 2007–August 2013); Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Adjunct Professor, Department of Economics, Southern Methodist University
Senior Economist and Vice President (Jan. 2000–Sept. 2007) Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas; Adjunct Professor, Department of Economics, Southern Methodist University
Senior Economist and Assistant Vice President, (Jan. 1997–Dec. 1999) Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Research Officer (Jan. 1994–Dec. 1996) Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Senior Economist and Policy Advisor (March 1990–Dec. 1993) Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Senior Economist (Sept. 1988–Feb. 1990) Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Assistant Professor (Sept. 1979–Aug. 1988) Department of Economics, University of Washington, Seattle

Educational Background

BA with honors (double major: economics and mathematics), University of Wisconsin–Madison, 1974.
PhD (Economics), Harvard University, 1981.

Published Research Articles

“How Robust Are Popular Models of Nominal Frictions?” with Benjamin D. Keen, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, forthcoming.
“Credit Indicators as Predictors of Economic Activity: A Real-Time VAR Analysis,” with N. Kundan Kishor, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, No. 2–3 (March–April 2014).
“Like a Good Neighbor: Monetary Policy, Financial Stability, and the Distribution of Risk,” International Journal of Central Banking 9 (2013), pp. 57–82.
“VAR Estimation and Forecasting When Data Are Subject to Revision,” with N. Kundan Kishor, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 30 (2012), pp. 181–90.
“Can Alternative Taylor-Rule Specifications Describe Federal Reserve Policy Decisions?” with Adriana Fernandez, Journal of Policy Modeling 32 (2010), pp. 733–57.
“The Use and Abuse of Real-Time and Anecdotal Information in Monetary Policymaking,” Source OECD: General Economics and Future Studies, vol. 2005, no. 35
“Monetary Policy Prospects,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic and Financial Policy Review, no. 2, 2004.
"The Use and Abuse of ‘Real-Time’ Data in Economic Forecasting," with Sheila Dolmas and Jeremy Piger, Review of Economics and Statistics, 85, 2003.
"Is the Markup a Useful Real-Time Predictor of Inflation?" Economics Letters, 80, 2003, pp. 261–67.
"Using the Purchasing Managers’ Index to Assess the Economy’s Strength and the Likely Direction of Monetary Policy,"Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic and Financial Policy Review, Issue 6, 2002.
"Is There a Persistence Problem? Part 2: Maybe Not," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic and Financial Review, Fourth Quarter 2000.
"Achieving 'Program Neutrality' under a National Retail Sales Tax," National Tax Journal, December 1999.
"Is There a Persistence Problem? Part 1: Maybe," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic and Financial Review, Fourth Quarter 1999.
"Taxing Government in a National Retail Sales Tax," with William G. Gale, Diane Lim Rogers and John Sabelhaus, Tax Notes, October 1998.
"The Dynamic Impact of Fundamental Tax Reform: Extensions of the Basic Model," with Gregory Huffman, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Second Quarter 1998.
"The Dynamic Impact of Fundamental Tax Reform: The Basic Model," with Gregory Huffman, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, First Quarter 1998.
"Interest Rates and the Recent Weakness in M2: An Extension to the P* Model of Inflation" Journal of Economics and Business 48, 1996, pp. 487–98.
"Capacity Utilization as a Real-Time Predictor of Manufacturing Output", Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Third Quarter 1996, pp. 16–23.
"Forecasting M2 Growth: An Exploration in Real Time, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Second Quarter 1996, pp. 16–26.
"Long-Term Interest Rates and the Recent Weakness in M2," Journal of Economics and Business 48, 1996, pp. 81–101.
"Targeting Nominal Income: A Closer Look," Economics Letters, 51, 1996, pp. 89–93.
"Optimal Monetary Policy in an Economy with Sticky Nominal Wages," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Second Quarter 1995, pp. 24–31.
"Why the Composite Index of Leading Indicators Doesn't Lead," with Kenneth M. Emery, Contemporary Economic Policy 12, January 1994, pp. 52–66.
"Rethinking the IS in IS-LM: Adapting Keynesian Tools to Non-Keynesian Economies," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review (Part 1 published Third Quarter 1993; Part 2 published Fourth Quarter 1993.)
"Do Interest Rates Help Predict Inflation?" with Kenneth M. Emery, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, Fourth Quarter 1992, pp. 1–17.
"Forecasting Turning Points: Is a Two-State Characterization of the Business Cycle Appropriate?" with Kenneth M. Emery, Economics Letters 39, August 1992, pp. 431–35.
"Misleading Indicators? Using the Composite Leading Indicators to Predict Cyclical Turning Points," with Kenneth M. Emery, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, July 1991, pp. 1–14.
"Real Money Balances and the Timing of Consumption: An Empirical Investigation," Quarterly Journal of Economics 105, 1990, pp. 399–426.
"A New Monetary Aggregate," with Thomas B. Fomby, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, May 1990, pp. 1–16.
"Recent Trade and Exchange Rate Movements: Possible Explanations," Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Review, September 1989, pp. 13–28.
"Investment and the Nominal Interest Rate: The Variable Velocity Case," Economic Inquiry 27, 1989, pp. 325–44.
"The Short Run 'Tobin Effect' in a Monetary Optimizing Model," Economic Inquiry 25, 1987, pp.43–54.
"Indirect Methods for Regulating Externalities under Uncertainty," Quarterly Journal of Economics 99, 1985, pp. 479–93.
"Controlling Stock Externalities in a Common Property Fishery Subject to Uncertainty," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 11, 1984, pp.124–8.
"Fisheries Regulation under Uncertainty: A Dynamic Analysis," Marine Resource Economics 1, 1984, pp.193–208.
"Uncertainty and Pollution: The Role of Indirect Taxation," Journal of Public Economics 24, 1984, pp.111–22.
"Electric Utility Rate Structures and Distributed Thermal Energy Storage," Energy: The International Journal 6, 1981, pp. 457–70.
"Theory of Graphs: Applications to Automata Systems," Kybernetes 5, 1976.
"On Some Models of World Cataclysm," with Richard H. Day, Land Economics 51, 1975, pp.1–20.
"Models of Doom"-review article, Transactions of the American Fisheries Society, January 1975.

Selected Articles on Public Policy

“Getting a Jump on Inflation,” with Alan Armen, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, Vol. 12, No. 9, August 2017.
“Corporate Tax Reform: Potential Gains at a Price to Some,” with Jason L. Saving, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, Vol. 12, No. 6, May 2017.
“Navigating by the Stars: The Natural Rate as Economic Forecasting Tool,” with Alan Armen, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, Vol. 12, No. 2, February 2017.
“Assessing Monetary Accommodation: A Simple Empirical Model of Monetary Policy and Its Implications for Unemployment and Inflation,” with Alan Armen, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Staff Papers, Issue 23, December 2015.
“Are We There Yet? Assessing Progress Toward Full Employment and Price Stability,” with Richard W. Fisher, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, Vol. 9, No. 13, October 2014.
“Real-Time Historical Dataset Enhances Accuracy of Economic Analyses,” with Adriana Fernandez and Alex Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, Vol. 7, No. 6, July 2012.
“High Unemployment Points to Below-Target (But Still Stable) Inflation,” with Tyler Atkinson, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, Vol. 7, Issue 12, 2012.
“All in the Family: The Close Connection Between Nominal-GDP Targeting and the Taylor Rule,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Staff Papers, Issue 17, 2012.
“Inflation, Slack, and Fed Credibility,” with Tyler Atkinson, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Staff Papers, Issue 16, 2012.
“A Regional Perspective on the ‘Great Moderation,’” with Nicole Ball, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, Issue 3, 2008.
“The ‘Great Moderation’ in Output and Employment Volatility: An Update,” with Nicole Ball, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter , Vol. 2, Issue 9, 2007.
“Through a Glass, Darkly: How Data Revisions Complicate Monetary Policy” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Economic Letter, Vol. 1, Issue 12, 2006.
“The National Economic Outlook: Continued Growth Likely,” with Keith Phillips, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, Issue 6, 2005.
“New Economy, New Recession?” with Thomas Siems and Mark Wynne, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, Issue 2, 2002.
“Productivity, the Stock Market and Monetary Policy in the Economy,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, Issue 1, 2000.
“Is the Fed Slave to a Defunct Economist?” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, Issue 5, 1997.
“Is There an Output-Inflation Trade-Off?” with Mark Wynne, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Southwest Economy, Issue 3, 1994.

Work in Progress

“The Roles of Inflation Expectations, Core Inflation, and Slack in Real-Time Inflation Forecasting,” with N. Kundan Kishor.