Economists

Chiara Scotti

Senior Vice President and Director of Research
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Chiara Scotti is senior vice president and director of research, overseeing the Bank’s Research and Statistics departments and advising President and CEO Lorie Logan on monetary policy.

Before joining the Dallas Fed in 2023, she was deputy associate director for the Federal Reserve Board of Governors’ Financial Stability Division, where she contributed to identifying risks to financial stability, and collaborating with other board divisions, Reserve Banks and government agencies.

Scotti joined the Board of Governors in 2005 as an economist in the International Finance Division followed by roles in the Financial Stability Division.

During the pandemic, she served as a special adviser to former Vice Chair Richard Clarida.

Scotti’s fields of expertise include monetary policy, central bank communication, and empirical macroeconomics and finance. She has authored and co-authored more than a dozen major papers in key economic journals on topics such as monetary policy, its communication and its impact on financial markets, the Federal Reserve’s policy responses to the COVID-19 crisis and macroeconomic uncertainty.

She earned a bachelor's degree from Bocconi University in Milan, Italy, and a master's degree and PhD from the University of Pennsylvania.

Publications

"Words speak as loudly as actions: Central bank communication and the response of equity prices to macroeconomic announcements," with Ben Gardner and Clara Vega, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 231, no. 2, December 2022, pp. 387–409. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.07.014.
See also: Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS), Nov. 2021.
"The COVID-19 Crisis and the Federal Reserve’s Policy Response," with Richard H. Clarida and Burcu Duygan-Bump, Monetary Policy and Central Banking in the Covid Era, 2021.
See also: Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS), June 2021.
"Measuring the Liquidity Profile of Mutual Funds," with Sirio Aramonte and Ilknur Zer, International Journal of Central Banking, October 2020.
See also: Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS), June 2019.
"Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions, Macroeconomic Surprises, and Uncertainty: Is a Recession Looming?" with Alessandro Barbarino, Alternative Economic Indicators, Aug. 24, 2020. https://doi.org/10.17848/9780880996778.
"How Correlated is LIBOR with Bank Funding Costs?" with David Bowman and Cindy M. Vojtech, FEDS Notes, June 29, 2020. https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2539.
"Monitoring the Liquidity Profile of Mutual Funds," with Sirio Aramonte and Ilknur Zer, FEDS Notes, May 29, 2020. https://doi.org/10.17016/2380-7172.2558.
"Does Anyone Listen When Politicians Talk? The Effect of Political Commentaries on Policy Rate Decisions and Expectations," with Selva Demiralp and Sharmila King, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 95, July 2019, pp. 95–111. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.03.006.
See also: Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS), July 2016.
"Unconventional Monetary Policy and International Risk Premia,"with John H. Rogers and Jonathan H. Wright, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 50, no. 8, December 2018, pp. 1827–50. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12511.
See also: International Finance Discussion Papers (IFDP), June 2016.
"Is the Intrinsic Value of a Macroeconomic News Announcement Related to its Asset Price Impact?" with Thomas Gilbert, Georg Strasser and Clara Vega, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 92, December 2017, pp. 78–95. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2017.09.008.
See also: Finance and Economics Discussion Series (FEDS), June 2015 (Revised December 2016).
"Surprise and Uncertainty Indexes: Real-Time Aggregation of Real-Activity Macro Surprises," Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 82, September 2016, pp. 1–19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2016.06.002.
See also: International Finance Discussion Papers (IFDP), November 2013 (Revised May 2016).
"Comment on 'Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting during the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences'," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 32, no. 4, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2014.956873.
"Evaluating Asset-Market Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Multi-Country Review," with John Harold Rogers and Jonathan H. Wright, Economic Policy, vol. 29, no. 80, October 1, 2014, pp. 749–99. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0327.12042.
See also: International Finance Discussion Papers (IFDP), March 2014.
"A Bivariate Model of Federal Reserve and ECB Main Policy Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, Issue 26, Sept. 2011.
"Has International Financial Co-Movement Changed? Emerging Markets in the 2007–2009 Financial Crisis," with John Ammer and Fang Cai, Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Emerging Financial Markets, 2011.
"Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," with S. Borağan Aruoba and Francis X. Diebold, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 27, no. 4, 2009. https://doi.org/10.1198/jbes.2009.07205.
"Exchange Rates Dependence: What Drives It?" with Sigríður Benediktsdóttir, International Finance Discussion Papers, no. 969, March 2009.
"Markov Switching GARCH Models of Currency Turmoil in Southeast Asia," with Celso Brunetti, Roberto S. Mariano and Augustine H. H. Tan, Emerging Markets Review, vol. 9, no. 2, June 2008, pp. 104–28. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ememar.2008.02.005.
"Modelling the Term Structure of Futures Commodity Prices: An Empirical Analysis in the Copper Market," Rivista di Politica Economica, vol. 89, 1999, pp. 67–102.

Working Papers

“Financial Shocks in an Uncertain Economy,” Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper no. 2308, July 2023.
“Fed Communication, News, Twitter, and Echo Chambers,” with Schmanski, Bennet, Clara Vega and Hedi Benamar, 2023.
“The Financial Stability Implications of Digital Assets,” with Pablo D. Azar, Garth Baughman, Francesca Carapella, Jacob Gerszten, Arazi Lubis, JP Perez-Sangimino, David E. Rappoport, Nathan Swem, Alexandros Vardoulakis and Aurite Werman, Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August 2022.
“Interconnectedness in the Corporate Bond Market,” with Celso Brunetti, Matthew Carl, Jacob Gerszten and Chaehee Shin, 2022.
“Macroeconomic and Financial Risks: A Tale of Mean and Volatility,” with Dario Caldara and Molin Zhong, International Finance Discussion Papers no. 1326, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, August 2021.
“Pushing or Pulling? Quantitative Easing, Quantitative Tightening, and International Capital Flows,” with Nathan Converse, Stephanie Curcuru and Aaron Rosenblum, 2019.