Headlines - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas serves the public by contributing to national monetary policy, supervising and regulating financial institutions, and helping maintain a strong payments system. http://www.dallasfed.org/rss/ en-us http://www.dallasfed.org/ Dallas Fed Logo http://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/Images/img/logo_gray http://www.dallasfed.org/rss/ Conspicuous Consumption: Vehicle Purchases by Non-Prime Consumers https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2021/wp2107 Fri, 04 Jun 2021 18:27:00 EST Using a unique vehicle financing dataset, this paper finds that consumers with lower credit scores value vehicle brand prestige more than average consumers. Texas Service Sector Growth Remains Robust https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2021/2105 Wed, 02 Jun 2021 09:30:00 EST Activity in the Texas service sector continued to increase in May, though at a slightly reduced pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2021/2105 Tue, 01 Jun 2021 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity expanded but at a slower pace in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce Fri, 28 May 2021 11:00:00 EST The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in April was 1.8 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate was 3.6 percent on a 12-month basis, and the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 3.1 percent on a 12-month basis. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, April 2021 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2021/pce2104 Fri, 28 May 2021 15:25:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 7.5 percent in April after increasing an annualized 6.9 percent in March. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2021/tei2105 Tue, 25 May 2021 11:57:00 EST The Texas economic recovery showed mixed signs in April as payroll growth softened but most other indicators of activity posted solid gains. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei Tue, 25 May 2021 17:00:00 EST <em>Texas Economic Indicators</em> is a web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the Texas economy. Global Perspectives: Claudia Aguirre on Community Development, High School Dropouts and Immigration https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2021/0525 Tue, 25 May 2021 08:00:00 EST Aguirre and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed the origins of BakerRipley, its mission, the problem of high school dropouts and the contributions of immigrants. Global Perspectives: Michael Beschloss on Becoming a Writer, the Challenges of the Presidency and National Division https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2021/0518 Tue, 18 May 2021 08:00:00 EST Michael Beschloss—a historian, leadership scholar and author—and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan discussed writing, the U.S. presidency and overcoming division in this country. Banking Conditions Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/bcs/2021/bcs2103 Mon, 17 May 2021 08:15:00 EST Respondents in the Eleventh District financial sector were given an opportunity to comment on current issues that may be affecting their business. Quantitative Easing and Agency MBS Investment and Financing Choices by Mortgage REITs https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2020/wp2020 Tue, 11 May 2021 00:02:00 EST An emerging literature documents a link between central bank quantitative easing (QE) and financial institution credit risk-taking. This paper tests the complementary hypothesis that QE may also affect financial risk-taking. Nonlinear Search and Matching Explained https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2021/wp2106 Tue, 11 May 2021 23:03:00 EST This paper derives an analytical solution to a textbook model that highlights the mechanisms that generate nonlinearity and quantifies their contributions. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2021/en2103 Mon, 10 May 2021 13:28:00 EST Natural gas prices increased modestly in April after falling from February highs that were driven by Winter Storm Uri. The freezing temperatures slowed natural gas exports, pushing up heating and electricity demand—including from coal—and contributed to a historic spike in electricity prices in Texas. Paycheck Protection Program: County-Level Determinants and Effect on Unemployment https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2021/wp2105 Fri, 07 May 2021 00:35:00 EST This paper uses U.S. county-level data to study the determinants and effects of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2021/aus2104 Thu, 06 May 2021 12:49:00 EST The Austin economy accelerated in March. The Austin Business-Cycle Index grew at a robust rate, the unemployment rate declined, and first-quarter jobs were healthy in most sectors. Output Growth Slows; Outlook Improves Further https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2021/2103 Thu, 06 May 2021 16:54:00 EST The latest data available show continued improvement in employment and industrial production, although exports and retail sales weakened based on a three-month moving average. The peso lost ground against the dollar in March, and inflation increased. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, March 2021 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2021/pce2103 Fri, 30 Apr 2021 15:16:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 6.4 percent in March after rising an annualized 2.9 percent in February. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2021/hou2105 Thu, 29 Apr 2021 17:59:00 EST Houston’s recovery accelerated sharply in March as payroll jobs recovered from the February freeze, and the state reopened fully. Manufacturing activity saw the strongest growth in over two years, and the health care jobs recovery was nearly complete, in aggregate. Global Perspectives: Cynthia Marshall on Diversity and Inclusion and Cultural Change in Organizations https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2021/0427 Tue, 27 Apr 2021 08:00:00 EST Marshall and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed her career, the importance of diversity and inclusion and cultural change in organizations. Texas Service Sector Growth Surges to Six-Year High https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2021/2104 Tue, 27 Apr 2021 09:30:00 EST Activity in the Texas service sector in April increased at its fastest pace since late 2014, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2021/2104 Mon, 26 Apr 2021 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity expanded at solid clip in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2021/sa2104 Fri, 23 Apr 2021 11:30:00 EST The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index strengthened in March as first-quarter jobs posted robust performance, and the unemployment rate ticked down. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2021/dfw2104 Fri, 23 Apr 2021 17:00:00 EST The DFW economic recovery gained momentum in March as payrolls grew robustly, the unemployment rate dipped, and the Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes climbed. Dallas–Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw Fri, 23 Apr 2021 17:43:00 EST <em>Dallas–Fort Worth Economic Indicators</em> is a monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the Dallas-Fort Worth economy. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2021/ep2105 Wed, 21 Apr 2021 13:03:00 EST While still not fully recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic, the El Paso economy grew in March at its quickest pace since June 2020. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep Wed, 21 Apr 2021 15:38:00 EST <em>El Paso Economic Indicators</em> is a web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the El Paso economy. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2021/en2102 Tue, 20 Apr 2021 14:06:00 EST Recent indicators point to an overall improved oil and gas outlook for the U.S. Activity in U.S. oil fields improved, oil prices held comfortably above levels needed to drill new wells for most producers, and industry employment losses slowed in February. Global Perspectives: Richard Haass on Russia, China and Multilateralism https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2021/0420 Tue, 20 Apr 2021 08:00:00 EST Richard Haass—a veteran diplomat, prominent voice on American foreign policy and established leader of nonprofit institutions—and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan discussed the end of the Cold War, Russia, China and contemporary challenges. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2021/tei2104 Mon, 19 Apr 2021 13:00:00 EST The Texas economic recovery picked up in March as payrolls grew robustly and the unemployment rate was flat. The Texas Business-Cycle Index grew for the 10th month in a row. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2021/hou2104 Wed, 14 Apr 2021 09:00:00 EST High-frequency data through March indicate continued recovery in Houston. Housing markets are very tight with elevated sales, low inventories, and rising input and selling prices for both new and existing homes. Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2021 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2021/swe2101 Fri, 09 Apr 2021 11:00:00 EST This issue looks at small business hardships with lenders and challenges banks face from the oil price collapse during the COVID-19 pandemic. It also includes a Spotlight on the spike in black unemployment rates, a Q&A with Janie Barrera, president and CEO of LiftFund, and an infographic on how COVID-19 has tanked U.S. fuel consumption and prices. COVID-19 Poses Stubborn Challenge to Economic Growth in Mexico https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2021/swe2101/swe2101c Fri, 09 Apr 2021 09:28:00 EST Mexico, confronting a high rate of COVID-19 infection and an ineffectual medical response, recorded the largest decline in gross domestic product in a quarter century last year. Value-Added Tax Could Restrain Long-Term Federal Debt https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2021/swe2101/swe2101d Fri, 09 Apr 2021 09:24:00 EST Alan D. Viard, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute and former senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, discusses how to address the U.S. budget deficit in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Spotlight: Pandemic Pushes Texas Minority Unemployment Beyond Highs Reached During Great Recession https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2021/swe2101/swe2101e Fri, 09 Apr 2021 09:26:00 EST Recessions are hardest on minorities; the COVID-19 downturn is no different in that regard. More than half of Texas’ population is Hispanic or Black and the consequences are far-reaching if those groups lag behind economically. Go Figure: Collapsing Fuel Demand Tanks Texas Exports During Pandemic’s Peak https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2021/swe2101/swe2101f Fri, 09 Apr 2021 09:22:00 EST The COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on Texas energy exports. U.S. energy exports excluding Texas were dramatically less affected. COVID-19 Slammed into Texas, Leaving Long-Lasting Impacts https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2021/swe2101/swe2101b Fri, 09 Apr 2021 09:30:00 EST The economic road from the COVID-19 recession in Texas will likely feature a steeper, more rapid climb than the usual gradual rise associated with most recoveries. Global Perspectives: Mike Rawlings on Being Dallas Mayor and the Role of Business in Solving Social Problems https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2021/0408 Thu, 08 Apr 2021 08:00:00 EST Former Dallas Mayor Mike Rawlings and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan discussed Rawlings’ decision to run for mayor, his priorities as mayor and the role of business in solving social problems. Economic Recovery Continues; Outlook Improves https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2021/2102 Tue, 06 Apr 2021 13:33:00 EST The latest data available show employment, industrial production and retail sales grew, but exports fell. Inflation increased, and the peso lost ground against the dollar. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2021/dfw2103 Tue, 06 Apr 2021 08:33:00 EST DFW economic growth waned in February in part due to Winter Storm Uri that brought economic activity to nearly a standstill for about a week. How Foreign- and U.S.-Born Latinos Fare During Recessions and Recoveries https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2021/wp2104 Fri, 02 Apr 2021 18:45:00 EST The majority of Latinos are U.S. born, making the progress and well-being of Latinos no longer just a question of immigrant assimilation but also of the effectiveness of U.S. educational institutions and labor markets in equipping young Latinos to move out of the working class and into the middle class. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2021/aus2103 Thu, 01 Apr 2021 14:41:00 EST The Austin economy continued to expand in February, albeit at a slower pace. The Austin Business-Cycle Index grew at a moderate clip. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2021/ep2104 Thu, 01 Apr 2021 17:28:00 EST El Paso’s economy grew in February after stagnating a month earlier. Payrolls expanded, and the metro’s business-cycle index rose, though both remained below prepandemic levels. 2020 Congressional Report https://www.dallasfed.org:443/fed/omwi/congress Wed, 31 Mar 2021 12:00:00 EST This report details the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' 2020 performance related to the OMWI provisions of the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/snm/2021/snm2101 Wed, 31 Mar 2021 15:22:00 EST New Mexico and Las Cruces payrolls saw monthly job gains but remained down from year-ago levels due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/snm Wed, 31 Mar 2021 20:14:00 EST Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators is a quarterly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the Southern New Mexico economy. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2021/tei2103 Tue, 30 Mar 2021 16:18:00 EST The Texas economic recovery showed signs of slowing in February as payrolls contracted and the unemployment rate rose. Texas Service Sector Activity Surges in March https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2021/2103 Tue, 30 Mar 2021 09:30:00 EST Activity in the Texas service sector in March increased at its fastest pace since mid-2019, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Banking Conditions Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/bcs/2021/bcs2102 Mon, 29 Mar 2021 07:30:00 EST Respondents in the Eleventh District financial sector were given an opportunity to comment on current issues that may be affecting their business. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2021/2103 Mon, 29 Mar 2021 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity expanded at a markedly faster pace in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Agricultural Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/agsurvey/2021/ag2101 Mon, 29 Mar 2021 09:25:00 EST Bankers responding to the first-quarter survey reported overall better conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District. They noted good crop yields and rising prices, while also expressing caution about continued dry conditions. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, February 2021 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2021/pce2102 Fri, 26 Mar 2021 14:26:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 2.8 percent in February after rising an annualized 4.1 percent in January. Southwest Economy https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe Fri, 26 Mar 2021 11:56:00 EST A quarterly publication featuring in-depth articles and interviews about Texas and the surrounding region, as well as Mexico. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2021/dfw2102 Thu, 25 Mar 2021 14:42:00 EST Dallas–Fort Worth’s economic recovery stayed on track in January. Job growth continued for the ninth straight month and unemployment dipped. Mortgage Borrowing and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Consumption and Residential Investment https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2021/wp2103 Wed, 24 Mar 2021 01:57:00 EST This paper studies the transmission of the major shocks in the U.S. housing market in the 2000s to consumption and residential investment. Dallas Fed Energy Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/des/2021/2101 Wed, 24 Mar 2021 09:30:00 EST Activity in the oil and gas sector expanded strongly in first quarter 2021, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. Examinations of the Reserve Bank https://www.dallasfed.org:443/fed/financials/20financials Mon, 22 Mar 2021 11:00:00 EST The combined financial statements of the Reserve Banks as well as the annual financial statements of each of the 12 Banks and the consolidated LLC entity are audited annually by an independent auditing firm retained by the Board of Governors. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2021/hou2103 Mon, 22 Mar 2021 19:00:00 EST COVID statistics for Houston have been improving since mid-January and, despite the chilling effects of Winter Storm Uri, high-frequency barometers of economic activity like mobility and restaurant demand indicate that the local economy has been picking up steam. Dry Bulk Shipping and the Evolution of Maritime Transport Costs, 1850-2020 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2021/wp2102 Fri, 19 Mar 2021 18:46:00 EST This paper provides evidence on the dynamic effects of fuel price shocks, shipping demand shocks and shipping supply shocks on real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2021/ep2103 Thu, 18 Mar 2021 14:30:00 EST Employment slumped despite a slowing in COVID-19 deaths and hospitalizations and strengthening vaccination efforts throughout the metro. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2021/sa2103 Thu, 18 Mar 2021 15:00:00 EST The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index weakened slightly in January. While the unemployment rate ticked down, jobs contracted. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2021/tei2102 Tue, 16 Mar 2021 14:59:00 EST The Texas economy showed signs of a slowing expansion in January as payroll employment growth softened and unemployment claims remained elevated. Global Perspectives: R.C. Buford on Basketball’s Globalization, Marketing and Leadership https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2021/0316 Tue, 16 Mar 2021 08:00:00 EST R.C. Buford, chief executive officer of Spurs Sports and Entertainment, and Dallas Fed President Robert S. Kaplan discussed basketball’s global reach and player development and the traits of leadership. Measuring Real Activity Using a Weekly Economic Index https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2020/wp2011 Wed, 03 Mar 2021 00:05:00 EST This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with the onset of and policy response to the novel coronavirus in the United States. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, January 2021 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2021/pce2101 Fri, 26 Feb 2021 14:16:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 4.2 percent in January after rising an annualized 4.5 percent in December. Work from Home Before and After the COVID-19 Outbreak https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2020/wp2017 Thu, 25 Feb 2021 01:51:00 EST Based on novel survey data, we document the evolution of commuting behavior in the U.S. over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Texas Service Sector Activity Grows Slightly https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2021/2102 Tue, 23 Feb 2021 09:30:00 EST Activity in the Texas service sector increased slightly in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2021/2102 Mon, 22 Feb 2021 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity expanded at a markedly faster pace in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. COVID-19 Update https://www.dallasfed.org:443/news/releases/2020/200318covid Mon, 22 Feb 2021 17:47:00 EST At the Dallas Fed, we're working to support the financial health of the people and businesses in the Eleventh District as we deal with this unprecedented crisis. Banking Conditions Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/bcs/2021/bcs2101 Tue, 16 Feb 2021 07:30:00 EST Respondents in the Eleventh District financial sector were given an opportunity to comment on current issues that may be affecting their business. Mexico’s Economic Growth Slows in Fourth Quarter https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2021/2101 Mon, 08 Feb 2021 16:18:00 EST The latest data available show industrial production, retail sales, exports and employment increased, while inflation fell. The peso was stable against the dollar in January. Texas Economy Soft in January, but Outlook Optimistic for Later in 2021 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2021/0204 Thu, 04 Feb 2021 08:00:00 EST Regional economic conditions appeared to deteriorate in January after picking up at year-end, data show. Nonetheless, there is optimism regarding the outlook for growth later this year. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2021/aus2102 Thu, 04 Feb 2021 12:12:00 EST The Austin economy expanded in December as strong job growth and a lower unemployment rate boosted the Austin Business-Cycle Index. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2021/hou2102 Wed, 03 Feb 2021 15:34:00 EST Recent indicators continue to portray an ongoing recovery hampered by the second wave of coronavirus infections. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2021/ep2102 Wed, 03 Feb 2021 16:18:00 EST The El Paso Business-Cycle Index signaled further expansion in the metro, though total nonfarm job growth was flat in December. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2021/sa2102 Tue, 02 Feb 2021 14:21:00 EST After contracting in November, the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index rose in December as unemployment and job numbers improved. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2021/dfw2101 Tue, 02 Feb 2021 15:51:00 EST Dallas–Fort Worth’s economic recovery gained some momentum in December, following softening in the previous month. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, December 2020 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2020/pce2012 Fri, 29 Jan 2021 14:56:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose an annualized 5.2 percent in December after being effectively unchanged in November. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2021/tei2101 Tue, 26 Jan 2021 14:31:00 EST The Texas economy showed signs of growth in December as payroll employment strengthened and the unemployment rate inched down. Texas Service Sector Activity Begins the Year Flat https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2021/2101 Tue, 26 Jan 2021 09:30:00 EST Activity in the Texas service sector was roughly flat in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2021/2101 Mon, 25 Jan 2021 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity continued to expand in January, albeit at a markedly slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2021/en2101 Fri, 22 Jan 2021 16:20:00 EST Oil prices increased in December and early January. Executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey see West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) prices staying near to or above breakeven levels for drilling new wells this year and are budgeting based on WTI in the low-to-mid $40s. How the New Fed Municipal Bond Facility Capped Muni-Treasury Yield Spreads in the COVID-19 Recession https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2021/wp2101 Fri, 15 Jan 2021 19:38:00 EST For over two centuries, the municipal bond market has been a source of systemic risk, which returned early in the COVID-19 downturn when borrowing from securities markets became costly for many private and public entities, and some found it difficult to borrow at all. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2021/hou2101 Wed, 13 Jan 2021 15:34:00 EST Economic indicators for Houston were mixed heading into the end of 2020. Houstonians left home to engage in economic activity less frequently in December, likely due in part to the combined effects of the holidays and the worsening pandemic. Entry and Exit, Unemployment, and the Business Cycle https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2020/wp2018 Tue, 12 Jan 2021 01:39:00 EST Establishment entry and exit is strongly correlated with output and unemployment. This paper examines how these linkages affect business cycle dynamics through the lens of a search and matching model augmented to include multi-worker establishments that endogenously enter and exit. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2021/aus2101 Fri, 08 Jan 2021 10:09:00 EST The Austin economy slowed in November as the Austin Business-Cycle Index decelerated due to an increase in the unemployment rate El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2021/ep2101 Wed, 06 Jan 2021 10:00:00 EST The El Paso economy continued to expand in November, but growth slowed compared with previous months. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2021/sa2101 Wed, 06 Jan 2021 12:21:00 EST In November 2020, the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index contracted following its rebound in October. Overall, the pattern suggests a sharp slowing in the recovery since August. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2020/dfw2012 Thu, 31 Dec 2020 11:30:00 EST Dallas–Fort Worth’s economic recovery waned in November, following strong growth in October. Dallas Fed Energy Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/des/2020/2004 Wed, 30 Dec 2020 09:30:00 EST Activity in the oil and gas sector jumped in fourth quarter 2020, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. What Is the U.S. Oil Industry Doing About Greenhouse Gas Emissions? https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2020/1229 Tue, 29 Dec 2020 08:00:00 EST Oil companies have felt compelled to react both in anticipation of new regulatory policies and in response to growing pressure from investors. Texas Service Sector Activity Grows Modestly as Year Ends https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2020/2012 Tue, 29 Dec 2020 09:30:00 EST Activity in the Texas service sector returned to positive territory in December. The revenue index rose from -0.7 in November to 4.2 in December, indicating a modest increase in activity. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2020/2012 Mon, 28 Dec 2020 09:30:00 EST Expansion in Texas factory activity picked up in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Agricultural Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/agsurvey/2020/ag2004 Mon, 28 Dec 2020 09:25:00 EST Bankers responding to the fourth-quarter survey reported overall weaker conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District. They pointed to extreme drought conditions that made a hard year even harder, with crop yields below average in some regions. Banking Conditions Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/bcs/2020/bcs2009 Mon, 28 Dec 2020 09:20:00 EST Respondents in the Eleventh District financial sector were given an opportunity to comment on current issues that may be affecting their business. COVID-19 Resurgence Across Texas Depresses Economic Growth https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2020/1224 Thu, 24 Dec 2020 08:00:00 EST Texas job growth has slowed after new daily COVID-19 cases in the state began surging in mid-October. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, November 2020 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2020/pce2011 Wed, 23 Dec 2020 12:44:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index was effectively unchanged in November, as it was in October. The price index for PCE excluding food and energy was likewise effectively unchanged as the prices of core goods rose while the prices of core services declined by a negligible amount. The Labor Market Impact of a Pandemic: Validation and Application of a Do-It-Yourself CPS https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2020/wp2031 Tue, 22 Dec 2020 19:32:00 EST This paper introduces a new survey that closely follows the core features of the Current Population Survey (CPS), ensuring that outcomes are conceptually compatible and allowing researchers to weight and validate results using the official CPS. The survey also allows for faster data collection, added flexibility and novel questions. Energy Woes to Weigh on Houston Recovery, Local Economist Says https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2020/swe2004/swe2004d Mon, 21 Dec 2020 08:57:00 EST Bill Gilmer, director of the Institute for Regional Forecasting at the University of Houston’s Bauer College of Business, assesses the effect of the energy industry problems on the Houston economy and provides an outlook for 2021. Spotlight: Lower U.S. Crude Oil Production Decreases Output, Raises Price of Natural Gas https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2020/swe2004/swe2004e Mon, 21 Dec 2020 08:50:00 EST Natural gas futures plummeted to a historic low in June 2020 only to rebound by late October, mainly due to a decline in natural gas production from oil wells. Mexico’s Economy Rebounds; Outlook Revised Up https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2020/2012 Mon, 21 Dec 2020 14:08:00 EST The latest data available show continued improvement as industrial production, employment, exports and retail sales increased.