Headlines - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas serves the public by contributing to national monetary policy, supervising and regulating financial institutions, and helping maintain a strong payments system. http://www.dallasfed.org/rss/ en-us http://www.dallasfed.org/ Dallas Fed Logo http://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/Images/img/logo_gray http://www.dallasfed.org/rss/ Making Sense of Increased Synchronization in Global House Prices https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2019/wp1911 Wed, 16 Oct 2019 18:59:00 EST Evidence indicates that house prices have become somewhat more synchronized during this century, likely reflecting more correlated movements in long-term interest rates and macroeconomic cycles that are related to trends in globalization and international portfolio diversification. Labor Market Slack Disappeared by 2016 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/1015 Tue, 15 Oct 2019 08:00:00 EST This is the second of three articles that talk about the natural rate of unemployment, the unemployment rate that would prevail in a “neutral” labor market after removing all movement due to the business cycle. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2019/en1910 Fri, 11 Oct 2019 09:50:00 EST Oil prices are on the downtrend again after a brief surge caused by recent attacks on Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure. Employment in the oil and gas sector is falling with the rig count. For the first time on record, the U.S. did not import any oil from Venezuela. Mexico's Economic Outlook Revised Down Further as Growth Disappoints https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2019/1906 Fri, 11 Oct 2019 10:27:00 EST Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) declined 0.5 percent in the first half of the year, its weakest growth in six years. Economic Conditions and the Key Structural Drivers Impacting the Economic Outlook https://www.dallasfed.org:443/news/speeches/kaplan/2019/rsk191010 Thu, 10 Oct 2019 07:00:00 EST President Rob Kaplan describes his assessment of economic conditions, key structural drivers critical to the prospects for economic growth in the U.S. and the stance of U.S. monetary policy. A Natural Approach to Estimating the ‘Natural Rate’ of Unemployment https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/1008 Tue, 08 Oct 2019 08:00:00 EST The unemployment rate is a widely viewed gauge of U.S. labor market slack or tightness. Because of structural changes to the labor market over time, assessments about slack/tightness require a reference point called the “natural rate of unemployment.” Consumer Credit Trends for Texas https://www.dallasfed.org:443/cd/cct/19ccttx Tue, 08 Oct 2019 12:00:00 EST This report presents an analysis of current county- and ZIP code-level credit conditions for Texas—data not readily available from other sources. In this report, the mortgage market is stable, but late payments rise for auto and student debt. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2019/aus1910 Fri, 04 Oct 2019 11:35:00 EST The Austin economy posted a strong performance in August. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded at a solid pace, and most job sectors experienced payroll gains, although health and private education services continued to decline. Refining the Workhorse Oil Market Model https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2019/wp1910 Fri, 04 Oct 2019 20:12:00 EST The Kilian and Murphy (2014) structural vector autoregressive model has become the workhorse model for the analysis of oil markets. I explore various refinements and extensions of this model. Don’t Expect U.S. Shale Producers to Respond Quickly to Geopolitical Disruption https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/1003 Thu, 03 Oct 2019 08:00:00 EST Higher oil prices due to supply disruptions and increased geopolitical risk are unlikely to generate significantly more U.S. oil production in the short term. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2019/hou1910 Wed, 02 Oct 2019 16:30:00 EST The Houston economy continued to hum along in August, but there are signs of slowing ahead. Crude Oil Price Changes Quicker to Register at Gasoline Pump https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/1001 Tue, 01 Oct 2019 08:00:00 EST How big an impact should we expect on gasoline prices? Based on recent research, most of the initial effect showed up quickly at the pump. Texas Service Sector Growth Improves https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2019/1909 Tue, 01 Oct 2019 09:30:00 EST Activity in the Texas service sector accelerated in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2019/wp1909 Tue, 01 Oct 2019 20:08:00 EST Our analysis focuses on the response of Canadian housing markets to oil price shocks. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2019/1909 Mon, 30 Sep 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity continued to expand in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Agricultural Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/agsurvey/2019/ag1903 Mon, 30 Sep 2019 14:54:00 EST Bankers responding to the third-quarter survey reported overall weaker conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District. Southwest Economy https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe Mon, 30 Sep 2019 17:04:00 EST The latest issue looks at auto loan debt, carbon emissions and renewable energy and education spending. It also includes a Spotlight on wind and solar power, a Q&A with atmospheric scientist Katharine Hayhoe and an infographic on Mexico's slow adoption of digital payments. Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce Fri, 27 Sep 2019 10:42:00 EST The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate over the 12 months ending in August was 2.0 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate was 1.4 percent on a 12-month basis and the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 1.8 percent on a 12-month basis. President's Perspective https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1903a Fri, 27 Sep 2019 12:49:00 EST Highlights of some of President Kaplan's recent thoughts on key issues, including the global growth outlook, the yield curve and trade tensions and the prosect of tariffs on Mexico. Spotlight: Wind and Solar Power: Perfect When Paired in Texas https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1903f Fri, 27 Sep 2019 12:42:00 EST As wind and solar power generation becomes more competitive economically relative to conventional coal and natural gas generation, states will likely increase their dependence on such renewable sources. Texas’ Energy Base Drives Climate Concerns as Renewables Expand https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1903c Fri, 27 Sep 2019 15:13:00 EST The energy industry’s large presence in Texas—production and refining—is a key contributor to carbon emissions. At the same time, the state is a renewable energy leader, especially with its large share of wind-based electricity generation. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, August 2019 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2019/pce1907 Fri, 27 Sep 2019 16:38:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index was close to unchanged in August, rising at a scant 0.4 percent annualized rate, following a 2.9 percent annualized increase in July. Dallas–Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw Fri, 27 Sep 2019 18:29:00 EST <em>Dallas–Fort Worth Economic Indicators</em> is a monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the Dallas-Fort Worth economy. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2019/ep1910 Fri, 27 Sep 2019 17:05:00 EST The El Paso Business-Cycle Index signaled expansion in the metro. Total nonfarm jobs increased in August, housing sales continued to weaken and trade volumes were down. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2019/dfw1909 Fri, 27 Sep 2019 18:31:00 EST Dallas–Fort Worth’s economic expansion remains on track. Payroll employment rose slightly faster than its long-term average rate in August, and unemployment stayed low. Texas Offers Perfect Setting to Study Impact, Costs of Climate Change https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1903e Fri, 27 Sep 2019 15:00:00 EST Katharine Hayhoe, an atmospheric scientist and professor at Texas Tech University in Lubbock, offers her views on the impact and cost of climate change. Texas K–12 Education Spending Set to Rise, but Who Will Pay? https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1903d Fri, 27 Sep 2019 15:04:00 EST The Texas Legislature approved increased public school spending and limited property tax increases, but this may not fully provide a long-term solution to meeting local districts’ needs. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep Fri, 27 Sep 2019 17:54:00 EST <em>El Paso Economic Indicators</em> is a web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the El Paso economy. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2019/sa1909 Thu, 26 Sep 2019 16:28:00 EST Growth in the San Antonio economy accelerated in August. Labor markets remained near historical levels of tightness, and wage growth trended upward. Texas Economy Keeps Growing Despite More Pessimistic Outlook https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0926 Thu, 26 Sep 2019 08:00:00 EST The regional economy is growing at a moderate pace, and labor markets remain tight. However, the outlook among Texas firms has deteriorated due to concern about tariffs, trade policy uncertainty and slowing global growth. Dallas Fed Energy Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/des/2019/1903 Wed, 25 Sep 2019 09:30:00 EST Activity in the oil and gas sector declined in third quarter 2019, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. Oil and Gas Sector Increasingly Influences U.S. Business Fixed Investment https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0924 Tue, 24 Sep 2019 08:00:00 EST As U.S. oil production has more than doubled over the past decade, the oil and gas sector has become more important to growth in non-residential investment. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2019/tei1909 Tue, 24 Sep 2019 17:32:00 EST The Texas economy continues to expand. While job growth decelerated in August, the unemployment rate held at a record low, indicating continued tightness in labor markets. Global Perspectives: Ruth J. Simmons on Trailblazing and Education https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0917 Tue, 17 Sep 2019 08:00:00 EST Simmons and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed her decision to become an educator, her experience in academia and the importance of educational opportunity. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2019/en1909 Mon, 16 Sep 2019 16:00:00 EST Oil prices eroded in August but rose sharply in mid-September due to an outage in Saudi Arabia. Total mining employment in Texas continues to weaken. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2019/aus1909 Fri, 06 Sep 2019 09:17:00 EST The Austin economy posted a solid performance in July. The Austin Business-Cycle Index has increased strongly in recent months due to rapid job growth and a lower unemployment rate. The Uniform Validity of Impulse Response Inference in Autoregressions https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2019/wp1908 Fri, 06 Sep 2019 19:34:00 EST In this paper, we establish the uniform asymptotic validity of conventional asymptotic and bootstrap inference about individual impulse responses and vectors of impulse responses when the horizon is fixed with respect to the sample size. Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2019/wp1907 Thu, 05 Sep 2019 21:12:00 EST The focus of this paper is not only on correcting important misunderstandings in the recent literature on oil market models, but on the substantive and methodological insights generated by this exchange, which are of broader interest to applied researchers. Do Monetary Policy Announcements Shift Household Expectations? https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2019/wp1906 Wed, 04 Sep 2019 20:20:00 EST We use daily survey data from Gallup to assess whether households' beliefs about economic conditions are influenced by surprises in monetary policy announcements. Domestic Migration to Texas Slows as National Labor Markets Tighten https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0903 Tue, 03 Sep 2019 08:00:00 EST Despite a strong economy and historically low unemployment rates in Texas, net domestic migration to Texas from other states has slowed since 2015. Small Business Credit Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/cd/pubs/sbcs19 Fri, 30 Aug 2019 15:00:00 EST Drawing on a national survey of small business owners, this report examines financial conditions and credit needs of employer firms in Texas. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, July 2019 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2019/pce1906 Fri, 30 Aug 2019 14:22:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 2.6 percent annualized rate in July following a 1.4 percent annualized increase in June. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2019/ep1909 Thu, 29 Aug 2019 15:02:00 EST The El Paso economy softened in July. Employment slumped, and year-over-year housing sales and trade volumes weakened. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2019/hou1909 Wed, 28 Aug 2019 14:40:00 EST Job growth estimates remain healthy despite a recent downward revision.Manufacturing output has weakened in recent months and jobs in that sector are declining. Solving a Puzzle: More Nonrenewable Resources Without Higher Prices https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0827 Tue, 27 Aug 2019 08:00:00 EST Economic intuition suggests nonrenewable resources such as metals or fossil fuels become scarcer and more expensive over time. However, a new dataset covering the years 1700 to 2018 indicates otherwise. Texas Service Sector Growth Softens https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2019/1908 Tue, 27 Aug 2019 09:30:00 EST Activity in the Texas service sector grew at a weaker pace in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2019/dfw1908 Mon, 26 Aug 2019 09:15:00 EST Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth strengthened in July. Payroll employment grew at a rapid clip, and unemployment stayed low. The Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes expanded further. Non-Renewable Resources, Extraction Technology and Endogenous Growth https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2015/wp1506 Mon, 26 Aug 2019 17:33:00 EST We document that global resource extraction has strongly increased with economic growth, while prices have exhibited stable trends for almost all major non-renewable resources from 1700 to 2018. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2019/1908 Mon, 26 Aug 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity expanded at a faster clip in August, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2019/sa1908 Fri, 23 Aug 2019 08:45:00 EST The San Antonio economy grew at a steady pace in July. Tight labor markets persisted, with unemployment rates low and labor force growth tepid. Permian Basin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/pb Fri, 23 Aug 2019 08:41:00 EST <em>Permian Basin Economic Indicators</em> is a monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the Permian Basin economy. Do Immigrants Threaten U.S. Public Safety? https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2019/wp1905 Thu, 22 Aug 2019 17:08:00 EST Opponents of immigration often claim that immigrants, particularly those who are unauthorized, are more likely than U.S. natives to commit crimes and that they pose a threat to public safety. There is little evidence to support these claims. GDP Gain Realized in Shale Boom’s First 10 Years https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0820 Tue, 20 Aug 2019 08:00:00 EST The U.S. shale boom has benefited the nation’s oil trade balance and oil-producing regions and led to unusually large employment and output gains. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2019/tei1908 Mon, 19 Aug 2019 16:21:00 EST Texas’ economic performance remains solid. The state saw robust job growth in July, and the unemployment rate held steady at a record low, indicating continued tightness in labor markets. Affordable Rental Housing in Rural Texas https://www.dallasfed.org:443/cd/pubs/rural Thu, 15 Aug 2019 17:00:00 EST Explore shifts in the housing market and factors that have increased rental-cost burdens across Texas and the country. In Uncertain Times, Fed Sometimes Turns to ‘Insurance’ https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0813 Tue, 13 Aug 2019 08:00:00 EST In June 2019, a concept appeared in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes that had not shown up in FOMC minutes for 11 years—the idea of monetary policy “insurance.” Mexico's Growth Picks Up Slightly in Second Quarter https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2019/1905 Mon, 12 Aug 2019 17:57:00 EST Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.4 percent in the second quarter after contracting 0.7 percent in the first quarter. Services, Construction Lead Texas as Manufacturing, Energy Soften https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0808 Thu, 08 Aug 2019 08:00:00 EST Sluggish growth in manufacturing is attributable to softening demand for durables, which appears tied to a slowing energy sector. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2019/en1908 Wed, 07 Aug 2019 10:46:00 EST Oil prices were mostly flat in July despite rising geopolitical tensions with Iran. West Texas natural gas prices averaged above zero as limited takeaway capacity continues to pressure pricing. Mining employment has leveled off. Another Benefit of Trimming: Smaller Inflation Revisions https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0806 Tue, 06 Aug 2019 08:00:00 EST With the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate, what you see in real time is closer to what you get after revision than is the case with the more conventional measure of core inflation, PCE excluding food and energy. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, June 2019 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2019/pce1905 Fri, 02 Aug 2019 15:00:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 1.5 percent annualized rate in June, similar to its increase in May. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2019/aus1908 Thu, 01 Aug 2019 11:10:00 EST The Austin economy posted strong performance in June. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated, though labor force growth remained tepid. Texas Service Sector Growth Increases to 2019 High https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2019/1907 Tue, 30 Jul 2019 09:30:00 EST Activity in the Texas service sector grew at a faster pace in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2019/hou1908 Tue, 30 Jul 2019 11:00:00 EST Leading indicators for Houston have slowed in recent months, and building permits for new single-family housing have continued to slide. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2019/1907 Mon, 29 Jul 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity continued to expand in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2019/ep1908 Mon, 29 Jul 2019 18:11:00 EST The El Paso economy remained healthy in June. The business-cycle index expanded, and year-to-date employment growth is above average. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2019/sa1907 Thu, 25 Jul 2019 15:12:00 EST The San Antonio economy expanded moderately in June. The unemployment rate rose slightly, and the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index grew marginally above its long-term trend. Takeaways from the Technology-Enabled Disruption Conference https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/events/2019/19ted-summary Thu, 25 Jul 2019 16:02:00 EST Highlights from the May 22-23 conference that focused on the implications of technology-enabled disruption for the economy—for firms, workers, governments and monetary policymakers. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2019/dfw1907 Wed, 24 Jul 2019 13:34:00 EST Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth strengthened in June. Payroll employment in the second quarter expanded at its fastest rate in over two years. Unemployment remains low, and the Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes expanded further. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2019/tei1907 Tue, 23 Jul 2019 12:08:00 EST Texas’ economic expansion continues to advance. The state posted robust job growth in June, and the unemployment rate dropped to a new record low, indicating further tightening in labor markets. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei Tue, 23 Jul 2019 12:22:00 EST <em>Texas Economic Indicators</em> is a web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the Texas economy. Uncertainty and Labor Market Fluctuations https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2019/wp1904 Thu, 18 Jul 2019 19:31:00 EST We investigate how a macroeconomic uncertainty shock affects the labor market. As Wages Rise, Are Black Workers Seeing the Smallest Gains? https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0716 Tue, 16 Jul 2019 08:00:00 EST A recent article argued that black workers have received the smallest earnings gains among various groups since the beginning of the Great Recession. Our analysis suggests otherwise. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2019/en1907 Fri, 12 Jul 2019 10:46:00 EST Oil prices dipped from May to June. Drilling activity also softened, particularly for shallower wells. However, mining employment accelerated the past few months ahead of a surge in pipeline capacity and in spite of worsening company outlooks. Labor Scarcity, Trade Woes Squeeze Texas Business, Survey Finds https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0711 Thu, 11 Jul 2019 08:00:00 EST Businesses face difficulty both trying to hire in a historically tight labor market and navigating tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. Mexico's Economic Outlook Weakens https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2019/1904 Wed, 10 Jul 2019 09:02:00 EST Preliminary revision to Mexico’s first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth suggested a decline of 0.7 percent annualized, up from the initial estimate of a -0.8 percent. Trade Relationships Affect U.S. Dollar Appreciation’s Impact Across States https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0709 Tue, 09 Jul 2019 08:00:00 EST The value of the U.S. dollar against other currencies has appreciated, making most goods produced in the U.S. more expensive overseas during the past year. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2019/hou1907 Wed, 03 Jul 2019 11:11:00 EST Houston business-cycle and leading indexes pointed to a growing economy in May. Employment, particularly mining-related jobs, accelerated, but the U.S. rig count and oil prices have fallen in recent months. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2019/aus1907 Wed, 03 Jul 2019 12:46:00 EST The Austin economy remained healthy in May. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated and remained above its long-term trend. Agricultural Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/agsurvey/2019/ag1902 Mon, 01 Jul 2019 12:00:00 EST Bankers responding to the second-quarter survey reported overall weaker conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2019/ep1907 Fri, 28 Jun 2019 18:48:00 EST The El Paso economy continues to expand. The labor market is healthy, with job growth above the long-term average. Existing-home sales are strong, and the median home price has begun to pick up. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, May 2019 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2019/pce1904 Fri, 28 Jun 2019 14:12:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in May following a 3.9 percent annualized increase in April. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2019/sa1906 Thu, 27 Jun 2019 11:03:00 EST The San Antonio economy expanded temperately in May. The unemployment rate ticked down further, while the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index decelerated to a pace close to its long-term trend. Trade Tensions Cloud Outlook as Texas Experiences Moderate Growth https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0627 Thu, 27 Jun 2019 08:00:00 EST The region’s moderate expansion continues, despite a weakening outlook. Job gains were solid in May, with most industries and major metros adding to payrolls, and labor markets remaining historically tight. A Brief Discussion Regarding the Impact of Climate Change on Economic Conditions in the Eleventh District https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0627b Thu, 27 Jun 2019 14:00:00 EST One factor being increasingly discussed at the Dallas Fed is the impact of climate change on the Eleventh District, says Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan. In particular, severe weather events can have a substantial human and economic cost to the district. Dallas Fed Energy Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/des/2019/1902 Wed, 26 Jun 2019 09:30:00 EST Activity in the oil and gas sector was flat in second quarter 2019 after three years of growth, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2019/dfw1906 Wed, 26 Jun 2019 12:03:00 EST Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth continued in May. Payroll employment rose, and unemployment remained at a 20-year low. The Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes expanded further. Texas Service Sector Growth Strengthens https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2019/1906 Tue, 25 Jun 2019 09:30:00 EST Activity in the Texas service sector grew at a faster pace in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2019/tei1906 Tue, 25 Jun 2019 12:08:00 EST Texas economic indicators pointed to continued moderate expansion in May. The state posted solid job growth and record-low unemployment, indicating that labor markets remain tight. Consumers’ and Economists’ Differing Inflation Views Can Complicate Policymaking https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0625 Tue, 25 Jun 2019 08:00:00 EST Economists and consumers likely think of different concepts when they consider inflation. Economists typically focus on the underlying trend that monetary policy can steer. U.S. consumers appear to think instead about unpredictable changes in prices most relevant to their regular decision-making. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2019/1906 Mon, 24 Jun 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity continued to expand in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Economic Conditions and the Stance of Monetary Policy https://www.dallasfed.org:443/news/speeches/kaplan/2019/rsk190624 Mon, 24 Jun 2019 14:49:00 EST President Rob Kaplan describes his assessment of economic conditions, business activity in the Eleventh District, the appropriate stance of U.S. monetary policy and how the implications of climate change are impacting Dallas Fed economic analysis. Texas Economy Remains Strong Despite Challenges https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1902e Fri, 21 Jun 2019 08:10:00 EST Charlie Amato, chairman and co-founder of Southwest Business Corp. (SWBC), offers insights into issues the Texas economy faces. Spotlight: Mexico’s Fiscal Reform Earns Mixed Reviews https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1902f Fri, 21 Jun 2019 08:05:00 EST To compensate for the lack of tax collection to fund government, Mexico has depended heavily on its state-owned oil company, Pemex. Thus, when oil production began declining in 2004, fiscal reform gained urgency. President's Perspective https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1902a Fri, 21 Jun 2019 08:30:00 EST If the current pace of growth continues, the Texas economy will add nearly 300,000 jobs in 2019. While this is good news, a number of headwinds impact the outlook. Eleventh District Banks Have Performed Well Despite Rising Funding Costs, Nonbank Competition https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1902d Fri, 21 Jun 2019 08:15:00 EST Profitability picked up for Eleventh District banks in 2018 despite rising funding costs and slowing loan growth. Texas Industrial Building Booms as Economy, Population Grow https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1902c Fri, 21 Jun 2019 08:20:00 EST Burgeoning e-commerce, state population gains and an expanding export market have contributed to the growth spurt that has included increases in transportation and logistics employment. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2019/en1906 Wed, 12 Jun 2019 10:46:00 EST In line with an eroding rig count, employment in support activities for mining fell in April. Oil prices slipped recently amid rising U.S. inventories and signs that global demand growth may slow. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2019/aus1906 Thu, 06 Jun 2019 15:37:00 EST The Austin economy grew at a solid pace in April. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded and remained above its long-term trend. Has U.S. Monetary Policy Gone Off Track? https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0606 Thu, 06 Jun 2019 08:00:00 EST The actions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) can be explained by the committee’s pursuit of full employment and price stability.