Headlines - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas serves the public by contributing to national monetary policy, supervising and regulating financial institutions, and helping maintain a strong payments system. http://www.dallasfed.org/rss/ en-us http://www.dallasfed.org/ Dallas Fed Logo http://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/Images/img/logo_gray http://www.dallasfed.org/rss/ The Contribution of Jump Signs and Activity to Forecasting Stock Price Volatility https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2019/wp1902 Fri, 19 Apr 2019 15:13:00 EST We document the forecasting gains achieved by incorporating measures of signed, finite and infinite jumps in forecasting the volatility of equity prices, using high-frequency data from 2000 to 2016. Global Perspectives: Janet Yellen on Becoming an Economist, Being Fed Chair and Views on Fed Independence https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0418 Thu, 18 Apr 2019 07:00:00 EST Janet Yellen holds a unique place in Federal Reserve history. It all began with a year as a humble Fed staff economist in 1977. Online Retailing, Self-Employment Disrupt Inflation https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0416 Tue, 16 Apr 2019 07:00:00 EST The employment status of increasing numbers of workers has become contingent in recent years—that is, there is greater freelance, or “gig,” employment. This development has coincided over the past two decades with an era of increasing online commerce that provides consumers a wider array of products and services at competitive prices. Small Business Credit Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/cd/EconDev/2017sbcs Tue, 16 Apr 2019 14:30:00 EST This report presents national survey findings on business conditions, financial challenges and credit environment from the perspective of small business owners with employees. Globally Competitive Texas Exports Sensitive to U.S. Trade Policy https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0411 Thu, 11 Apr 2019 07:00:00 EST Texas, the nation’s largest exporting state, enjoys a strong position in world trade. The state continues to see exports climb, and it exhibits a manufacturing edge in energy-related products and intermediate goods based on an index of comparative advantage. Modern Refineries, Shale Boom Upend Traditional Oil Price Relationships https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0409 Tue, 09 Apr 2019 07:00:00 EST Different crude oils can sell for dramatically different prices with sometimes far-reaching effects on the energy industry—from impacts on oil producers’ production decisions to oil refineries’ profit margins. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2019/en1904 Tue, 09 Apr 2019 14:47:00 EST Investor returns in the energy sector have lagged behind the broader market for some time. This has led to restraint in capital spending plans for 2019, which may be contributing to a lower rig count and a tepid outlook for employment growth this year. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2019/aus1904 Fri, 05 Apr 2019 09:40:00 EST The Austin economy grew moderately in February. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded but remained below its long-term trend. Mexico's Output Growth Slows, Outlook Worsens https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2019/1902 Fri, 05 Apr 2019 16:19:00 EST Mexico’s economy grew an annualized 1.0 percent in fourth quarter 2018 after expanding a revised 2.4 percent in the third quarter. Texas Economic Activity Stabilizes, but Slower Job Growth Is Ahead https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0404 Thu, 04 Apr 2019 07:00:00 EST Output growth in Texas has stabilized after a relatively robust 2018. However, a tight labor market, slowing energy activity and weakening global demand will restrain Texas growth during 2019, an assessment consistent with the Dallas Fed’s outlook for the year. Risks Abound If China Uses Debt to Stimulate Economy from Current Downturn https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0402 Tue, 02 Apr 2019 07:00:00 EST The Chinese economy is losing steam. As China considers how to work through its difficulties, its chances of success may depend on how it finances the debt it incurs while attempting to boost economic activity. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2019/hou1904 Tue, 02 Apr 2019 16:09:00 EST Houston job growth, leading and coincident indicators, and oil and fuel prices have improved over the past few months. Mining-related employment continued to grow, and bank lending expanded faster in the region than the nation. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2019/ep1904 Mon, 01 Apr 2019 13:08:00 EST El Paso’s economy continues to expand. While employment contracted in February, jobs rose 1.2 percent year to date. Existing-home sales dipped, while median-home prices inched up in February. Agricultural Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/agsurvey/2019/ag1901 Mon, 01 Apr 2019 18:02:00 EST Bankers responding to the first-quarter survey reported overall weaker conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2019/sa1903a Fri, 29 Mar 2019 11:01:00 EST The San Antonio economy expanded at a stable rate in February. The unemployment rate declined, and the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand, though at a rate slightly below the long-term trend. 2018 Congressional Report https://www.dallasfed.org:443/fed/omwi/congress Fri, 29 Mar 2019 12:00:00 EST This report details the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' 2018 performance related to the OMWI provisions of the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce Fri, 29 Mar 2019 11:21:00 EST The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate for January was an annualized 1.1 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for January was -0.7 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 0.8 percent. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, January 2019 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2019/pce1901 Fri, 29 Mar 2019 16:47:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index declined 0.7 percent at an annualized rate in January following a 0.7 percent annualized increase a month earlier. Global Perspectives: Greg Mankiw on Economic Advice, Climate Change and Trade https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0328 Thu, 28 Mar 2019 08:00:00 EST Mankiw and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed some of the things that economists don't understand about politicians (and that politicians don't understand about economists). Dallas Fed Energy Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/des/2019/1901 Wed, 27 Mar 2019 09:30:00 EST Energy sector activity grew modestly in first quarter 2019, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2019/dfw1903 Wed, 27 Mar 2019 12:18:00 EST Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth continued in February, with payroll employment expanding and unemployment staying low. Looking at the two-month period, employment performance has been healthy—above the metro’s long-run average. Texas Service Sector Activity Decelerates https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2019/1903 Tue, 26 Mar 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector activity growth softened in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. How Much Do Movers Move Average Wage Growth? https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0326 Tue, 26 Mar 2019 11:38:00 EST Data from the Current Population Survey, a household survey used to compute the unemployment rate, do not include individuals who change residences. If it could include movers, our previous estimate of 2018 average individual wage growth would increase from 5.0 percent to 5.5 percent or higher. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2019/1903 Mon, 25 Mar 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity continued to expand in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2019/tei1903 Mon, 25 Mar 2019 14:43:00 EST Texas economic indicators pointed to moderate economic growth in February. Job growth was near its long-run average, and unemployment remained low. Go Figure: Shale Revolution Boosts Texas Refiners' Competitiveness https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1901f Fri, 22 Mar 2019 15:25:00 EST If Texas were a country, it would rank second in the world in refining capacity. Spotlight: Abundant Sunshine Not Enough to Power Texas Residential Solar Energy https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1901e Fri, 22 Mar 2019 15:30:00 EST The Texas electricity market doesn't shine in residential solar energy despite plentiful sunlight. Civic Leader Seeks to Bolster Texas Attributes by 2036 Bicentennial https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1901c Fri, 22 Mar 2019 15:40:00 EST Tom Luce, a Dallas attorney, is currently leading Texas 2036, which aims to create a policy roadmap for Texas as it heads toward its bicentennial. Lower Oil Prices, Tight Labor Markets to Restrain Texas Growth in 2019 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1901d Fri, 22 Mar 2019 15:35:00 EST Texas' economy should expand in 2019, though at a slower rate than in the prior year. Southwest Economy https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe Fri, 22 Mar 2019 23:00:00 EST The latest issue looks at Texas exports amid shifting trade policy and the state's outlook for growth in 2019. It also includes a Spotlight on Texas residential solar energy, a Q&A with Tom Luce on Texas 2036 and an infographic on the shale revolution's impact on refining. President's Perspective https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1901a Fri, 22 Mar 2019 15:50:00 EST Dallas Fed economists expect GDP growth to slow in 2019 primarily due to waning fiscal stimulus, global growth deceleration and slowing job growth due to a tight labor market. Permian Basin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/pb Fri, 22 Mar 2019 16:25:00 EST <em>Permian Basin Economic Indicators</em> is a monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the Permian Basin economy. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2019/hou1903 Tue, 19 Mar 2019 09:18:00 EST Growth in employment and the business-cycle index slowed for Houston at the start of the year. Leading indicators were mixed but largely painted a softer outlook for 2019. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2019/sa1903 Mon, 18 Mar 2019 11:01:00 EST The San Antonio economy grew at a steady pace in January. Although the unemployment rate ticked up, the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand at a rate slightly above trend. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2019/aus1903 Fri, 15 Mar 2019 11:51:00 EST The Austin economy saw mixed performance in January. The Austin Business-Cycle Index decelerated and remained below its long-term trend. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2019/dfw1902 Thu, 14 Mar 2019 14:06:00 EST The Dallas–Fort Worth economy continued its expansion in January. Job growth was moderate, and the Dallas Business-Cycle Index rose. However, the Fort Worth Business-Cycle Index fell following robust growth in 2018. Dallas–Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw Thu, 14 Mar 2019 18:23:00 EST <em>Dallas–Fort Worth Economic Indicators</em> is a monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the Dallas-Fort Worth economy. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2019/tei1902 Mon, 11 Mar 2019 15:56:00 EST Texas economic indicators improved in January. The state posted solid job growth that was broad based across metros but mixed among sectors. Growth in the business-cycle index continued to decelerate but remained above its long-term trend. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei Mon, 11 Mar 2019 18:15:00 EST <em>Texas Economic Indicators</em> is a web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the Texas economy. Global Perspectives: Richard Clarida on U.S. Monetary Policy https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0307 Thu, 07 Mar 2019 08:00:00 EST Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida discusses a range of topics, including the challenges facing monetary policymakers, the U.S. fiscal situation and the global role of the dollar. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2019/ep1903 Thu, 07 Mar 2019 09:56:00 EST Trade through the port is unchanged, while maquiladora employment picked up in late 2018. Home sales have slowed, but home affordability remains above average in El Paso. Despite the strong dollar, El Paso retail sales were steady in second quarter 2018. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2019/en1903 Tue, 05 Mar 2019 13:19:00 EST OPEC production cuts and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela have helped global oil prices partly recover from 2018 declines this year, and increased pipeline capacity is lifting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices in Midland. The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States: Reply to Jentsch and Lunsford https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2018/wp1805 Mon, 04 Mar 2019 21:48:00 EST When focusing on the relevant impulse responses, the evidence for economic and statistically significant macroeconomic effects of tax changes in Mertens and Ravn (2013) remains present for a range of asymptotically valid inference methods. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, December 2018 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2018/pce1812 Fri, 01 Mar 2019 16:11:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 0.7 percent at an annualized rate in December following a 0.6 percent annualized increase a month earlier. Global Perspectives: John Hess on U.S. Oil Reserves, Climate Change https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0228 Thu, 28 Feb 2019 08:00:00 EST Few sectors of the U.S. economy have undergone as radical a transformation in recent years as the energy sector, and few loom as large in the economic fortunes of Texas and the Eleventh District. Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/snm/2019/snm1901 Wed, 27 Feb 2019 09:47:00 EST New Mexico posted robust job gains in 2018, while Las Cruces payrolls grew slightly. Home sales posted solid increases in both Las Cruces and the state. Texas Service Sector Activity Expands at Accelerated Pace https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2019/1902 Tue, 26 Feb 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector activity accelerated in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Is Wage Growth Higher than We Think? https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0226 Tue, 26 Feb 2019 08:00:00 EST There is always widespread interest in the degree to which the U.S. labor market generates higher pay for workers. A standard measure of wage growth suggests that this expansion is not improving the standard of living of workers, but our analysis reveals that actual wage growth is understated. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2019/1902 Mon, 25 Feb 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity continued to expand in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Not Everything Is Bigger in Texas: The Varied Fortunes of Four Smaller Metros https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0221 Thu, 21 Feb 2019 08:00:00 EST While Texas’ major metropolitan areas power the bulk of the state’s commercial activity, some smaller metros have worked to establish their place as part of the state’s economic mosaic. Changes in Labor Force Participation Help Explain Recent Job Gains https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0219 Tue, 19 Feb 2019 08:00:00 EST The U.S. labor force participation rate declined following the Great Recession to a low of 62.3 percent in 2015. The Zero Lower Bound and Estimation Accuracy https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2018/wp1804 Tue, 19 Feb 2019 19:37:00 EST During the Great Recession, many central banks lowered their policy rate to its zero lower bound, creating a kink in the policy rule and calling into question linear estimation methods. Dallas Fed Energy Survey Suggests Oil Price Drop Won’t Cause Sector Collapse in 2019 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0214 Thu, 14 Feb 2019 08:00:00 EST Following a banner year in 2018, will U.S. oil producers retrench and reduce capital spending after the recent double-digit oil price decline? The latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey provides some clues about what may be next. Closer to One Great Pool? Evidence from Structural Breaks in Oil Price Differentials https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2019/wp1901 Wed, 13 Feb 2019 15:27:00 EST We show that the oil market has become closer to “one great pool,” in the sense that price differentials between crude oils of different qualities have generally become smaller over time. Inverted Yield Curve (Nearly Always) Signals Tight Monetary Policy, Rising Unemployment https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0212 Tue, 12 Feb 2019 08:00:00 EST With long-term interest rates falling and short-term rates rising, there has been increasing talk of a possible yield-curve inversion and speculation about what an inversion might mean for the U.S. economy. Mexico's Output Growth Slows in the Fourth Quarter https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2019/1901 Fri, 08 Feb 2019 11:40:00 EST Mexico’s economy grew an annualized 1.2 percent in fourth quarter 2018 after expanding 3.4 percent in the third quarter. Global Perspectives: Maya MacGuineas on Stabilizing the Federal Debt https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0207 Thu, 07 Feb 2019 15:00:00 EST A good measure of a nation’s ability to repay its obligations is the ratio of the stock of indebtedness to the flow of output produced in a given year. In recent years, this ratio has increased for the U.S. government, raising new questions about how the nation manages a debt burden that is approaching an all-time high. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2019/aus1902 Thu, 07 Feb 2019 15:02:00 EST The Austin economy expanded at a healthy pace in December. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated and remained above its long-term trend. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2019/en1902 Tue, 05 Feb 2019 14:59:00 EST Crude oil prices rebounded somewhat in January from end-of-year levels, but the rig count slipped on earlier price declines. The Neutral Rate of Interest https://www.dallasfed.org:443/news/speeches/kaplan/2018/rsk190105 Tue, 05 Feb 2019 10:00:00 EST This essay explores a number of the key issues associated with using the neutral rate concept in formulating monetary policy. Growth in Texas Economy Downshifts https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/reg/2019/1901 Fri, 01 Feb 2019 12:43:00 EST The Texas economy experienced another downshift in growth over the last two months, although the level of activity remains strong. Texas Service Sector Activity Picks Up https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2019/1901 Tue, 29 Jan 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector activity grew at a faster pace in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2019/1901 Mon, 28 Jan 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity continued to expand in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2019/hou1902 Mon, 28 Jan 2019 15:47:00 EST Growth in Houston leading and coincident economic indicators weakened in December. Job growth slowed, but the local labor force expanded. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2019/ep1902 Fri, 25 Jan 2019 13:21:00 EST El Paso jobs grew 1.5 percent in 2018, on pace with the metro’s long-term average. Steady job gains have boosted the business-cycle index. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2019/dfw1901 Thu, 24 Jan 2019 12:05:00 EST The Dallas–Fort Worth economy ended 2018 on a solid note. Employment growth was robust in December, with DFW adding jobs at its fastest pace in 13 months, and unemployment remained near multiyear lows. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2019/sa1902 Thu, 24 Jan 2019 13:53:00 EST Growth in the San Antonio economy was soft in December. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index decelerated, and the unemployment rate increased. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2019/tei1901 Tue, 22 Jan 2019 15:48:00 EST Texas economic indicators were mixed in December. The state finished 2018 with strong job growth and continued labor market tightness, but forward-looking indicators suggest that the state’s economic outlook has softened. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2019/en1901 Thu, 17 Jan 2019 16:43:00 EST Oil sector growth cooled at the end of 2018, and lower oil prices eroded expectations for capital spending in 2019. Crossroads—Economic Trends in the Desert Southwest https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/crossroads Wed, 16 Jan 2019 20:04:00 EST Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2019/aus1901 Thu, 10 Jan 2019 14:56:00 EST The Austin economy grew at a strong pace in November. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded and remained above its long-term trend. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2019/hou1901 Wed, 09 Jan 2019 13:43:00 EST Houston employment and the business-cycle index continue to register healthy growth, and drilling activity has flattened at a high level. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2019/sa1901 Fri, 04 Jan 2019 10:24:00 EST Growth in the San Antonio economy was moderate in November. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to accelerate, and the unemployment rate was unchanged. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2019/ep1901 Thu, 03 Jan 2019 11:41:00 EST El Paso payrolls fell in November, but year-to-date employment growth remains near its long-term average of 1.5 percent. Dallas Fed Energy Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/des/2018/1804 Thu, 03 Jan 2019 09:30:00 EST Growth in energy sector activity slowed significantly in fourth quarter 2018, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. Texas Service Sector Activity Decelerates https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2018/1812 Wed, 02 Jan 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector activity grew at a slower pace in December, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Agricultural Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/agsurvey/2018/ag1804 Wed, 02 Jan 2019 15:45:00 EST Bankers responding to the fourth-quarter survey reported improved conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2018/dfw1812 Mon, 31 Dec 2018 12:58:00 EST The Dallas–Fort Worth economy expanded at a modest pace. Employment growth was subdued in November, with DFW adding jobs at the slowest pace in seven months. Argentina’s “Missing Capital” Puzzle and Limited Commitment Constraints https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2018/wp1815 Fri, 28 Dec 2018 13:00:00 EST Capital accumulation in Argentina was slow in the 1990s, despite high total factor productivity (TFP) growth and low international interest rates. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2018/tei1812 Thu, 27 Dec 2018 11:57:00 EST Texas economic growth moderated in November. The state added jobs at a softer pace, with employment declining in some metros and industries. Healthy Texas Expansion Beginning to Slow https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/reg/2018/1808 Wed, 26 Dec 2018 10:50:00 EST The Texas economy continues to grow at a solid but slightly slower pace, with job growth broad based across industries and regions. U.S. Economy Finishes the Year Strong https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/us/2018/1808 Mon, 24 Dec 2018 11:49:00 EST The U.S. economy continued its expansion in the fourth quarter, fueled in part by strong consumption and rising wage growth. Inflation remained at or around the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. Mexico's 2019 Growth Outlook Revised Down https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2018/1808 Mon, 24 Dec 2018 09:00:00 EST Mexico’s economy has grown 2.4 percent this year through the third quarter. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, November 2018 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2018/pce1811 Fri, 21 Dec 2018 14:50:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 0.7 percent at an annualized rate in November, following a 2.4 percent annualized increase a month earlier. Spotlight: Texas Pre-K Enrollment Exceeds U.S. Rate https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2018/swe1804e Thu, 20 Dec 2018 15:30:00 EST Texas since 1985 has required public school districts to offer half-day prekindergarten to 4-year-olds who meet certain criteria—and schools may extend enrollment to 3-year-olds. During the 2016–17 school year, 49.4 percent of Texas 4-year-olds were enrolled in state-backed pre-K programs, compared with 32.7 percent nationally. Mexico’s Nascent Fintech Offers Promise, Faces New Rules https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2018/swe1804c Thu, 20 Dec 2018 15:40:00 EST The number of financial technology startups in Mexico has rapidly increased, promising to expand financial services to a large portion of the unbanked population. Officials are hopeful new regulations will aid the industry's development. Artificial Intelligence Will Dramatically Affect Businesses https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2018/swe1804d Thu, 20 Dec 2018 15:35:00 EST Manoj Saxena discusses artificial intelligence, its influence on how a business remains competitive and its impact on society. President's Perspective https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2018/swe1804a Thu, 20 Dec 2018 15:50:00 EST One important driver of Texas economic growth has been the migration of people and firms to the state. Promising Telehealth Initiatives Highlight the Need to Close Digital Divide https://www.dallasfed.org:443/cd/pubs/telehealth Fri, 14 Dec 2018 17:00:00 EST These five case studies examine how access to telehealth can address health disparities in underserved urban and rural communities. Small Business Credit Survey: 2018 Report on Employer Firms in Texas https://www.dallasfed.org:443/cd/pubs/sbcs Fri, 14 Dec 2018 16:30:00 EST Drawing on a national survey of small business owners, this report examines financial conditions and credit needs of employer firms in Texas. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2018/en1811 Fri, 07 Dec 2018 09:20:00 EST Oil prices tumbled in November due to the United States' Iran policy, surging U.S. production, rising inventories and concerns about the global demand outlook. Reserve Adequacy Explains Emerging-Market Sensitivity to U.S. Monetary Policy https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/eclett/2018/el1809 Fri, 07 Dec 2018 13:29:00 EST Emerging economies that borrow in U.S. dollars are sensitive to U.S. monetary policy due to changing exchange rates. Labor Market Not Overly Tight, Demographically Adjusted Measure Shows https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/eclett/2018/el1810 Fri, 07 Dec 2018 13:50:00 EST Elevated inflation traditionally accompanies prolonged low unemployment rates, such as those currently observed in the U.S. However, price pressures have remained comparatively restrained, prompting further examination. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2018/aus1812 Thu, 06 Dec 2018 13:57:00 EST The Austin economy expanded at a strong pace in October. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated and continued above its long-term trend. Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/snm/2018/snm1804 Mon, 03 Dec 2018 16:14:00 EST New Mexico employment is steadily expanding, while Las Cruces jobs remained stagnant in the third quarter and year to date. Gross domestic product (GDP) for the Las Cruces metro posted slower growth in 2017 than in previous years. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2018/ep1811 Thu, 29 Nov 2018 17:25:00 EST El Paso's economy continued to expand in October. Existing-home sales remained near all-time highs, while home-price appreciation was moderate. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, October 2018 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2018/pce1810 Thu, 29 Nov 2018 15:39:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 2.2 percent at an annualized rate in October, following a 1.5 percent annualized increase a month earlier. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2018/hou1812 Wed, 28 Nov 2018 14:39:00 EST The outlook for Houston softened as leading indicators broadly slowed over the past three months. Revisions to data show that 2018 Houston employment growth has been healthy but not as strong as early estimates suggested. Texas Service Sector Activity Accelerates Slightly https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2018/1811 Tue, 27 Nov 2018 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector activity grew at a faster pace in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2018/1811 Mon, 26 Nov 2018 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity continued to expand in November, albeit at a markedly slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey.