Headlines - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas serves the public by contributing to national monetary policy, supervising and regulating financial institutions, and helping maintain a strong payments system. http://www.dallasfed.org/rss/ en-us http://www.dallasfed.org/ Dallas Fed Logo http://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/Images/img/logo_gray http://www.dallasfed.org/rss/ Do Immigrants Threaten U.S. Public Safety? https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2019/wp1905 Thu, 22 Aug 2019 17:08:00 EST Opponents of immigration often claim that immigrants, particularly those who are unauthorized, are more likely than U.S. natives to commit crimes and that they pose a threat to public safety. There is little evidence to support these claims. GDP Gain Realized in Shale Boom’s First 10 Years https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0820 Tue, 20 Aug 2019 08:00:00 EST The U.S. shale boom has benefited the nation’s oil trade balance and oil-producing regions and led to unusually large employment and output gains. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2019/tei1908 Mon, 19 Aug 2019 16:21:00 EST Texas’ economic performance remains solid. The state saw robust job growth in July, and the unemployment rate held steady at a record low, indicating continued tightness in labor markets. Affordable Rental Housing in Rural Texas https://www.dallasfed.org:443/cd/pubs/rural Thu, 15 Aug 2019 17:00:00 EST Explore shifts in the housing market and factors that have increased rental-cost burdens across Texas and the country. In Uncertain Times, Fed Sometimes Turns to ‘Insurance’ https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0813 Tue, 13 Aug 2019 08:00:00 EST In June 2019, a concept appeared in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes that had not shown up in FOMC minutes for 11 years—the idea of monetary policy “insurance.” Mexico's Growth Picks Up Slightly in Second Quarter https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2019/1905 Mon, 12 Aug 2019 17:57:00 EST Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 0.4 percent in the second quarter after contracting 0.7 percent in the first quarter. Services, Construction Lead Texas as Manufacturing, Energy Soften https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0808 Thu, 08 Aug 2019 08:00:00 EST Sluggish growth in manufacturing is attributable to softening demand for durables, which appears tied to a slowing energy sector. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2019/en1908 Wed, 07 Aug 2019 10:46:00 EST Oil prices were mostly flat in July despite rising geopolitical tensions with Iran. West Texas natural gas prices averaged above zero as limited takeaway capacity continues to pressure pricing. Mining employment has leveled off. Another Benefit of Trimming: Smaller Inflation Revisions https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0806 Tue, 06 Aug 2019 08:00:00 EST With the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate, what you see in real time is closer to what you get after revision than is the case with the more conventional measure of core inflation, PCE excluding food and energy. Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce Fri, 02 Aug 2019 15:28:00 EST The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate for June was an annualized 2.4 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for June was 1.5 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 3.0 percent. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, June 2019 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2019/pce1905 Fri, 02 Aug 2019 15:00:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 1.5 percent annualized rate in June, similar to its increase in May. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2019/aus1908 Thu, 01 Aug 2019 11:10:00 EST The Austin economy posted strong performance in June. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated, though labor force growth remained tepid. Texas Service Sector Growth Increases to 2019 High https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2019/1907 Tue, 30 Jul 2019 09:30:00 EST Activity in the Texas service sector grew at a faster pace in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2019/hou1908 Tue, 30 Jul 2019 11:00:00 EST Leading indicators for Houston have slowed in recent months, and building permits for new single-family housing have continued to slide. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2019/1907 Mon, 29 Jul 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity continued to expand in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2019/ep1908 Mon, 29 Jul 2019 18:11:00 EST The El Paso economy remained healthy in June. The business-cycle index expanded, and year-to-date employment growth is above average. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep Fri, 26 Jul 2019 17:14:00 EST <em>El Paso Economic Indicators</em> is a web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the El Paso economy. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2019/sa1907 Thu, 25 Jul 2019 15:12:00 EST The San Antonio economy expanded moderately in June. The unemployment rate rose slightly, and the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index grew marginally above its long-term trend. Takeaways from the Technology-Enabled Disruption Conference https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/events/2019/19ted-summary Thu, 25 Jul 2019 16:02:00 EST Highlights from the May 22-23 conference that focused on the implications of technology-enabled disruption for the economy—for firms, workers, governments and monetary policymakers. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2019/dfw1907 Wed, 24 Jul 2019 13:34:00 EST Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth strengthened in June. Payroll employment in the second quarter expanded at its fastest rate in over two years. Unemployment remains low, and the Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes expanded further. Dallas–Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw Wed, 24 Jul 2019 13:46:00 EST <em>Dallas–Fort Worth Economic Indicators</em> is a monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the Dallas-Fort Worth economy. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2019/tei1907 Tue, 23 Jul 2019 12:08:00 EST Texas’ economic expansion continues to advance. The state posted robust job growth in June, and the unemployment rate dropped to a new record low, indicating further tightening in labor markets. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei Tue, 23 Jul 2019 12:22:00 EST <em>Texas Economic Indicators</em> is a web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the Texas economy. Uncertainty and Labor Market Fluctuations https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2019/wp1904 Thu, 18 Jul 2019 19:31:00 EST We investigate how a macroeconomic uncertainty shock affects the labor market. As Wages Rise, Are Black Workers Seeing the Smallest Gains? https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0716 Tue, 16 Jul 2019 08:00:00 EST A recent article argued that black workers have received the smallest earnings gains among various groups since the beginning of the Great Recession. Our analysis suggests otherwise. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2019/en1907 Fri, 12 Jul 2019 10:46:00 EST Oil prices dipped from May to June. Drilling activity also softened, particularly for shallower wells. However, mining employment accelerated the past few months ahead of a surge in pipeline capacity and in spite of worsening company outlooks. Labor Scarcity, Trade Woes Squeeze Texas Business, Survey Finds https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0711 Thu, 11 Jul 2019 08:00:00 EST Businesses face difficulty both trying to hire in a historically tight labor market and navigating tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. Mexico's Economic Outlook Weakens https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2019/1904 Wed, 10 Jul 2019 09:02:00 EST Preliminary revision to Mexico’s first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth suggested a decline of 0.7 percent annualized, up from the initial estimate of a -0.8 percent. Trade Relationships Affect U.S. Dollar Appreciation’s Impact Across States https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0709 Tue, 09 Jul 2019 08:00:00 EST The value of the U.S. dollar against other currencies has appreciated, making most goods produced in the U.S. more expensive overseas during the past year. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2019/hou1907 Wed, 03 Jul 2019 11:11:00 EST Houston business-cycle and leading indexes pointed to a growing economy in May. Employment, particularly mining-related jobs, accelerated, but the U.S. rig count and oil prices have fallen in recent months. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2019/aus1907 Wed, 03 Jul 2019 12:46:00 EST The Austin economy remained healthy in May. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated and remained above its long-term trend. Agricultural Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/agsurvey/2019/ag1902 Mon, 01 Jul 2019 12:00:00 EST Bankers responding to the second-quarter survey reported overall weaker conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2019/ep1907 Fri, 28 Jun 2019 18:48:00 EST The El Paso economy continues to expand. The labor market is healthy, with job growth above the long-term average. Existing-home sales are strong, and the median home price has begun to pick up. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, May 2019 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2019/pce1904 Fri, 28 Jun 2019 14:12:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 2.0 percent annualized rate in May following a 3.9 percent annualized increase in April. Trade Tensions Cloud Outlook as Texas Experiences Moderate Growth https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0627 Thu, 27 Jun 2019 08:00:00 EST The region’s moderate expansion continues, despite a weakening outlook. Job gains were solid in May, with most industries and major metros adding to payrolls, and labor markets remaining historically tight. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2019/sa1906 Thu, 27 Jun 2019 11:03:00 EST The San Antonio economy expanded temperately in May. The unemployment rate ticked down further, while the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index decelerated to a pace close to its long-term trend. A Brief Discussion Regarding the Impact of Climate Change on Economic Conditions in the Eleventh District https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0627b Thu, 27 Jun 2019 14:00:00 EST One factor being increasingly discussed at the Dallas Fed is the impact of climate change on the Eleventh District, says Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan. In particular, severe weather events can have a substantial human and economic cost to the district. Dallas Fed Energy Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/des/2019/1902 Wed, 26 Jun 2019 09:30:00 EST Activity in the oil and gas sector was flat in second quarter 2019 after three years of growth, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2019/dfw1906 Wed, 26 Jun 2019 12:03:00 EST Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth continued in May. Payroll employment rose, and unemployment remained at a 20-year low. The Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes expanded further. Consumers’ and Economists’ Differing Inflation Views Can Complicate Policymaking https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0625 Tue, 25 Jun 2019 08:00:00 EST Economists and consumers likely think of different concepts when they consider inflation. Economists typically focus on the underlying trend that monetary policy can steer. U.S. consumers appear to think instead about unpredictable changes in prices most relevant to their regular decision-making. Texas Service Sector Growth Strengthens https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2019/1906 Tue, 25 Jun 2019 09:30:00 EST Activity in the Texas service sector grew at a faster pace in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2019/tei1906 Tue, 25 Jun 2019 12:08:00 EST Texas economic indicators pointed to continued moderate expansion in May. The state posted solid job growth and record-low unemployment, indicating that labor markets remain tight. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2019/1906 Mon, 24 Jun 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity continued to expand in June, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Economic Conditions and the Stance of Monetary Policy https://www.dallasfed.org:443/news/speeches/kaplan/2019/rsk190624 Mon, 24 Jun 2019 14:49:00 EST President Rob Kaplan describes his assessment of economic conditions, business activity in the Eleventh District, the appropriate stance of U.S. monetary policy and how the implications of climate change are impacting Dallas Fed economic analysis. Texas Economy Remains Strong Despite Challenges https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1902e Fri, 21 Jun 2019 08:10:00 EST Charlie Amato, chairman and co-founder of Southwest Business Corp. (SWBC), offers insights into issues the Texas economy faces. Spotlight: Mexico’s Fiscal Reform Earns Mixed Reviews https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1902f Fri, 21 Jun 2019 08:05:00 EST To compensate for the lack of tax collection to fund government, Mexico has depended heavily on its state-owned oil company, Pemex. Thus, when oil production began declining in 2004, fiscal reform gained urgency. President's Perspective https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1902a Fri, 21 Jun 2019 08:30:00 EST If the current pace of growth continues, the Texas economy will add nearly 300,000 jobs in 2019. While this is good news, a number of headwinds impact the outlook. Southwest Economy https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe Fri, 21 Jun 2019 08:35:00 EST The latest issue looks at Texas’ tight labor markets, booming industrial construction and Eleventh District bank performance. Eleventh District Banks Have Performed Well Despite Rising Funding Costs, Nonbank Competition https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1902d Fri, 21 Jun 2019 08:15:00 EST Profitability picked up for Eleventh District banks in 2018 despite rising funding costs and slowing loan growth. Texas Industrial Building Booms as Economy, Population Grow https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1902c Fri, 21 Jun 2019 08:20:00 EST Burgeoning e-commerce, state population gains and an expanding export market have contributed to the growth spurt that has included increases in transportation and logistics employment. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2019/en1906 Wed, 12 Jun 2019 10:46:00 EST In line with an eroding rig count, employment in support activities for mining fell in April. Oil prices slipped recently amid rising U.S. inventories and signs that global demand growth may slow. Has U.S. Monetary Policy Gone Off Track? https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0606 Thu, 06 Jun 2019 08:00:00 EST The actions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) can be explained by the committee’s pursuit of full employment and price stability. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2019/aus1906 Thu, 06 Jun 2019 15:37:00 EST The Austin economy grew at a solid pace in April. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded and remained above its long-term trend. U.S. Tax Cuts Boost Economy—but for How Long? https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0604 Tue, 04 Jun 2019 08:00:00 EST Did the U.S. tax cuts boost economic activity in 2018? The answer is yes, at least according to the recent empirical literature on the macroeconomic effects of taxes. Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/snm/2019/snm1902 Mon, 03 Jun 2019 09:47:00 EST New Mexico continues to post robust job gains, while Las Cruces payrolls are stagnant. The labor market is mixed in southern New Mexico. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2019/hou1906 Fri, 31 May 2019 15:00:00 EST Recent data for Houston were positive. These data suggest a healthy near-term outlook for the Houston region. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, April 2019 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2019/pce1903 Fri, 31 May 2019 14:38:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 3.8 percent at an annualized rate in April following a 2.5 percent annualized increase in March. Room to Grow? Inflation and Labor Market Slack https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0530 Thu, 30 May 2019 08:00:00 EST Compared with the usual ex-food-and-energy measure, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate sends a clearer, more reliable signal about whether cyclical inflation pressures are building. Texas Service Sector Activity Growth Weakens https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2019/1905 Wed, 29 May 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector activity growth slowed in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Which Core to Believe? Trimmed Mean Versus Ex-Food-and-Energy Inflation https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0528 Tue, 28 May 2019 08:00:00 EST Twice since 2014, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation—inflation excluding food and energy—decelerated sharply, only to ultimately reverse course. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2019/1905 Tue, 28 May 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity continued to expand in May, albeit at a slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2019/ep1906 Fri, 24 May 2019 15:42:00 EST El Paso’s economy continues to expand. Jobs rose an annualized 1.1 percent in April. Despite the healthy labor market, population growth in El Paso has stalled. Corporate Indebtedness: Improving Financial Stability Monitoring https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0523 Thu, 23 May 2019 08:00:00 EST U.S. nonfinancial corporate credit has been identified as an area where growth in the quantity of debt and deterioration in the quality of underwriting could be a source of concern. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2019/sa1905 Thu, 23 May 2019 14:03:00 EST The San Antonio economy expanded at a moderate pace in April. The unemployment rate continued to decline, while the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index accelerated to its strongest pace since July 2016. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2019/dfw1905 Wed, 22 May 2019 09:36:00 EST Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth continued in April. Payroll employment rose in Dallas but contracted in Fort Worth. Unemployment fell to a 20-year low, and the Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes expanded further. Breakeven Oil Prices Underscore Shale’s Impact on the Market https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0521 Tue, 21 May 2019 08:00:00 EST The oil price that companies need to profitably drill new wells has closely tracked prices for long-dated oil futures in recent years. The emergence of U.S. shale production seems to be playing a large role in anchoring long-term oil prices. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2019/tei1905 Mon, 20 May 2019 15:42:00 EST Texas economic indicators point to solid expansion in April. The state posted strong job growth and record-low unemployment, indicating that labor markets remain tight. Valuation Risk Revalued https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2018/wp1808 Mon, 20 May 2019 19:32:00 EST The recent success of valuation risk in resolving asset pricing puzzles rests sensitively on an undesirable asymptote. After revising the preferences to remove the asymptote, valuation risk has a much smaller but still important role in a Bansal-Yaron long-run risk model. Dallas Fed’s Texas Jobs Estimates Provide Early, Accurate Assessment https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0516 Thu, 16 May 2019 08:00:00 EST The Bureau of Labor Statistics annually revises regional job estimates in a process called benchmarking. A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas adjustment provides researchers a more current means of assessing Texas economic conditions. Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2018/wp1810 Thu, 16 May 2019 14:30:00 EST We exploit the 1998 and 2003 constitutional amendment in Texas—allowing home equity loans and lines of credit for non-housing purposes—as natural experiments to estimate the effect of easier credit access on the labor market. Three Macroeconomic Factors to Watch in Equity Markets https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0514 Tue, 14 May 2019 08:00:00 EST Machine learning has helped make music playlist recommendations, facilitated self-driving cars and even interpreted patients’ medical test results. Mexico's Economy Contracts, but Outlook Holds Steady https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2019/1903 Thu, 09 May 2019 10:06:00 EST Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell an annualized 0.8 percent in first quarter 2019, after growing 1.0 percent in fourth quarter 2018. Texas Economy Rebounds from Year-End Slowdown, Grows at Moderate Pace https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0509 Thu, 09 May 2019 08:00:00 EST Texas economic activity expanded moderately in the first quarter after downshifting markedly in November and December. Remarks for Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0507 Tue, 07 May 2019 08:00:00 EST In his remarks given on May 3, 2019, at “Strategies for Monetary Policy: A Policy Conference” hosted by the Hoover Institution, President Rob Kaplan discusses some of the potential issues raised by recent weakness in headline and core inflation measures. Two Measures of Core Inflation: A Comparison https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2019/wp1903 Mon, 06 May 2019 14:19:00 EST Trimmed-mean Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation is a less-biased real-time estimator of headline inflation than ex-food-and-energy PCE inflation and more successfully filters out headline inflation’s transitory variation. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2019/en1905 Mon, 06 May 2019 16:02:00 EST While limited takeaway capacity drove Waha natural gas prices below zero in April, oil prices in West Texas continued to rise. The increase in crude prices was supported in part by lower output from OPEC nations and production declines related to sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2019/aus1905 Fri, 03 May 2019 10:02:00 EST The Austin economy grew slowly in the first quarter. Growth in the Austin Business-Cycle Index decreased slightly and continued to run below its long-term trend. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, March 2019 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2019/pce1902 Fri, 03 May 2019 16:47:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 2.4 percent at an annualized rate in March following a 1.3 percent annualized increase in February. Texas Service Sector Activity Accelerates Slightly https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2019/1904 Tue, 30 Apr 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector activity continued to increase in April, albeit at a slower pace than last month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2019/ep1905 Tue, 30 Apr 2019 15:15:00 EST El Paso’s economy continues to expand, with jobs rising 2.1 percent year to date. March existing-home sales picked up from February but are below year-ago levels. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2019/1904 Mon, 29 Apr 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity continued to expand in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2019/hou1905 Mon, 29 Apr 2019 12:07:00 EST Recent data for Houston are mixed, but they continue to paint a moderately positive outlook for the region. The Federal Reserve https://www.dallasfed.org:443/educate/everyday/fed Fri, 26 Apr 2019 12:13:00 EST Alexander Hamilton's ideas and vision for central banking in the 1700s had a lasting impact. Watch a quick animated video to learn how the founding father’s 1st Bank of the United States resonated hundreds of years later in the Federal Reserve. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2019/sa1904 Thu, 25 Apr 2019 15:08:00 EST The San Antonio economy expanded at a healthy pace in March. The unemployment rate declined to a multiyear low. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand at a rate above the long-term trend. Global Perspectives: Mike Leavitt on Health Care Costs and Higher Education https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0423 Tue, 23 Apr 2019 09:04:00 EST The U.S. health care system is uniquely innovative, but it is also arguably uniquely inefficient. Health outcomes in the U.S.—whether measured in terms of simple metrics such as life expectancy or more sophisticated ones such as quality-adjusted life years—do not seem commensurate with health care expenditures. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2019/tei1904 Tue, 23 Apr 2019 09:19:00 EST Texas economic indicators pointed to moderate expansion in March. Job growth outpaced its long-run average, and unemployment remained low. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2019/dfw1904 Tue, 23 Apr 2019 14:51:00 EST Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth continued to be healthy in March. Payroll employment in the first quarter expanded at its fastest rate in two and a half years. The Contribution of Jump Signs and Activity to Forecasting Stock Price Volatility https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2019/wp1902 Fri, 19 Apr 2019 15:13:00 EST We document the forecasting gains achieved by incorporating measures of signed, finite and infinite jumps in forecasting the volatility of equity prices, using high-frequency data from 2000 to 2016. Global Perspectives: Janet Yellen on Becoming an Economist, Being Fed Chair and Views on Fed Independence https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0418 Thu, 18 Apr 2019 07:00:00 EST Janet Yellen holds a unique place in Federal Reserve history. It all began with a year as a humble Fed staff economist in 1977. Online Retailing, Self-Employment Disrupt Inflation https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0416 Tue, 16 Apr 2019 07:00:00 EST The employment status of increasing numbers of workers has become contingent in recent years—that is, there is greater freelance, or “gig,” employment. This development has coincided over the past two decades with an era of increasing online commerce that provides consumers a wider array of products and services at competitive prices. Small Business Credit Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/cd/EconDev/2017sbcs Tue, 16 Apr 2019 14:30:00 EST This report presents national survey findings on business conditions, financial challenges and credit environment from the perspective of small business owners with employees. Globally Competitive Texas Exports Sensitive to U.S. Trade Policy https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0411 Thu, 11 Apr 2019 07:00:00 EST Texas, the nation’s largest exporting state, enjoys a strong position in world trade. The state continues to see exports climb, and it exhibits a manufacturing edge in energy-related products and intermediate goods based on an index of comparative advantage. Modern Refineries, Shale Boom Upend Traditional Oil Price Relationships https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0409 Tue, 09 Apr 2019 07:00:00 EST Different crude oils can sell for dramatically different prices with sometimes far-reaching effects on the energy industry—from impacts on oil producers’ production decisions to oil refineries’ profit margins. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2019/en1904 Tue, 09 Apr 2019 14:47:00 EST Investor returns in the energy sector have lagged behind the broader market for some time. This has led to restraint in capital spending plans for 2019, which may be contributing to a lower rig count and a tepid outlook for employment growth this year. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2019/aus1904 Fri, 05 Apr 2019 09:40:00 EST The Austin economy grew moderately in February. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded but remained below its long-term trend. Mexico's Output Growth Slows, Outlook Worsens https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2019/1902 Fri, 05 Apr 2019 16:19:00 EST Mexico’s economy grew an annualized 1.0 percent in fourth quarter 2018 after expanding a revised 2.4 percent in the third quarter. Texas Economic Activity Stabilizes, but Slower Job Growth Is Ahead https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0404 Thu, 04 Apr 2019 07:00:00 EST Output growth in Texas has stabilized after a relatively robust 2018. However, a tight labor market, slowing energy activity and weakening global demand will restrain Texas growth during 2019, an assessment consistent with the Dallas Fed’s outlook for the year. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2019/hou1904 Tue, 02 Apr 2019 16:09:00 EST Houston job growth, leading and coincident indicators, and oil and fuel prices have improved over the past few months. Mining-related employment continued to grow, and bank lending expanded faster in the region than the nation. Risks Abound If China Uses Debt to Stimulate Economy from Current Downturn https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0402 Tue, 02 Apr 2019 07:00:00 EST The Chinese economy is losing steam. As China considers how to work through its difficulties, its chances of success may depend on how it finances the debt it incurs while attempting to boost economic activity. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2019/ep1904 Mon, 01 Apr 2019 13:08:00 EST El Paso’s economy continues to expand. While employment contracted in February, jobs rose 1.2 percent year to date. Existing-home sales dipped, while median-home prices inched up in February.