Headlines - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas serves the public by contributing to national monetary policy, supervising and regulating financial institutions, and helping maintain a strong payments system. http://www.dallasfed.org/rss/ en-us http://www.dallasfed.org/ Dallas Fed Logo http://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/Images/img/logo_gray http://www.dallasfed.org/rss/ Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2019/en1906 Wed, 12 Jun 2019 10:46:00 EST In line with an eroding rig count, employment in support activities for mining fell in April. Oil prices slipped recently amid rising U.S. inventories and signs that global demand growth may slow. Has U.S. Monetary Policy Gone Off Track? https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0606 Thu, 06 Jun 2019 08:00:00 EST The actions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) can be explained by the committee’s pursuit of full employment and price stability. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2019/aus1906 Thu, 06 Jun 2019 15:37:00 EST The Austin economy grew at a solid pace in April. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded and remained above its long-term trend. U.S. Tax Cuts Boost Economy—but for How Long? https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0604 Tue, 04 Jun 2019 08:00:00 EST Did the U.S. tax cuts boost economic activity in 2018? The answer is yes, at least according to the recent empirical literature on the macroeconomic effects of taxes. Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/snm/2019/snm1902 Mon, 03 Jun 2019 09:47:00 EST New Mexico continues to post robust job gains, while Las Cruces payrolls are stagnant. The labor market is mixed in southern New Mexico. Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce Fri, 31 May 2019 10:26:00 EST The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate for April was an annualized 2.9 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for April was 3.8 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 3.0 percent. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, April 2019 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2019/pce1903 Fri, 31 May 2019 14:38:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 3.8 percent at an annualized rate in April following a 2.5 percent annualized increase in March. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2019/hou1906 Fri, 31 May 2019 15:00:00 EST Recent data for Houston were positive. These data suggest a healthy near-term outlook for the Houston region. Room to Grow? Inflation and Labor Market Slack https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0530 Thu, 30 May 2019 08:00:00 EST Compared with the usual ex-food-and-energy measure, the Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate sends a clearer, more reliable signal about whether cyclical inflation pressures are building. Texas Service Sector Activity Growth Weakens https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2019/1905 Wed, 29 May 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector activity growth slowed in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Which Core to Believe? Trimmed Mean Versus Ex-Food-and-Energy Inflation https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0528 Tue, 28 May 2019 08:00:00 EST Twice since 2014, core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation—inflation excluding food and energy—decelerated sharply, only to ultimately reverse course. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2019/1905 Tue, 28 May 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity continued to expand in May, albeit at a slower pace, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2019/ep1906 Fri, 24 May 2019 15:42:00 EST El Paso’s economy continues to expand. Jobs rose an annualized 1.1 percent in April. Despite the healthy labor market, population growth in El Paso has stalled. Corporate Indebtedness: Improving Financial Stability Monitoring https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0523 Thu, 23 May 2019 08:00:00 EST U.S. nonfinancial corporate credit has been identified as an area where growth in the quantity of debt and deterioration in the quality of underwriting could be a source of concern. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2019/sa1905 Thu, 23 May 2019 14:03:00 EST The San Antonio economy expanded at a moderate pace in April. The unemployment rate continued to decline, while the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index accelerated to its strongest pace since July 2016. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2019/dfw1905 Wed, 22 May 2019 09:36:00 EST Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth continued in April. Payroll employment rose in Dallas but contracted in Fort Worth. Unemployment fell to a 20-year low, and the Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes expanded further. Breakeven Oil Prices Underscore Shale’s Impact on the Market https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0521 Tue, 21 May 2019 08:00:00 EST The oil price that companies need to profitably drill new wells has closely tracked prices for long-dated oil futures in recent years. The emergence of U.S. shale production seems to be playing a large role in anchoring long-term oil prices. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2019/tei1905 Mon, 20 May 2019 15:42:00 EST Texas economic indicators point to solid expansion in April. The state posted strong job growth and record-low unemployment, indicating that labor markets remain tight. Valuation Risk Revalued https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2018/wp1808 Mon, 20 May 2019 19:32:00 EST The recent success of valuation risk in resolving asset pricing puzzles rests sensitively on an undesirable asymptote. After revising the preferences to remove the asymptote, valuation risk has a much smaller but still important role in a Bansal-Yaron long-run risk model. Dallas Fed’s Texas Jobs Estimates Provide Early, Accurate Assessment https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0516 Thu, 16 May 2019 08:00:00 EST The Bureau of Labor Statistics annually revises regional job estimates in a process called benchmarking. A Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas adjustment provides researchers a more current means of assessing Texas economic conditions. Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2018/wp1810 Thu, 16 May 2019 14:30:00 EST We exploit the 1998 and 2003 constitutional amendment in Texas—allowing home equity loans and lines of credit for non-housing purposes—as natural experiments to estimate the effect of easier credit access on the labor market. Three Macroeconomic Factors to Watch in Equity Markets https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0514 Tue, 14 May 2019 08:00:00 EST Machine learning has helped make music playlist recommendations, facilitated self-driving cars and even interpreted patients’ medical test results. Mexico's Economy Contracts, but Outlook Holds Steady https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2019/1903 Thu, 09 May 2019 10:06:00 EST Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) fell an annualized 0.8 percent in first quarter 2019, after growing 1.0 percent in fourth quarter 2018. Texas Economy Rebounds from Year-End Slowdown, Grows at Moderate Pace https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0509 Thu, 09 May 2019 08:00:00 EST Texas economic activity expanded moderately in the first quarter after downshifting markedly in November and December. Remarks for Hoover Institution Monetary Policy Conference https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0507 Tue, 07 May 2019 08:00:00 EST In his remarks given on May 3, 2019, at “Strategies for Monetary Policy: A Policy Conference” hosted by the Hoover Institution, President Rob Kaplan discusses some of the potential issues raised by recent weakness in headline and core inflation measures. Two Measures of Core Inflation: A Comparison https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2019/wp1903 Mon, 06 May 2019 14:19:00 EST Trimmed-mean Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation is a less-biased real-time estimator of headline inflation than ex-food-and-energy PCE inflation and more successfully filters out headline inflation’s transitory variation. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2019/en1905 Mon, 06 May 2019 16:02:00 EST While limited takeaway capacity drove Waha natural gas prices below zero in April, oil prices in West Texas continued to rise. The increase in crude prices was supported in part by lower output from OPEC nations and production declines related to sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, March 2019 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2019/pce1902 Fri, 03 May 2019 16:47:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 2.4 percent at an annualized rate in March following a 1.3 percent annualized increase in February. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2019/aus1905 Fri, 03 May 2019 10:02:00 EST The Austin economy grew slowly in the first quarter. Growth in the Austin Business-Cycle Index decreased slightly and continued to run below its long-term trend. Texas Service Sector Activity Accelerates Slightly https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2019/1904 Tue, 30 Apr 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector activity continued to increase in April, albeit at a slower pace than last month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep Tue, 30 Apr 2019 17:49:00 EST <em>El Paso Economic Indicators</em> is a web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the El Paso economy. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2019/ep1905 Tue, 30 Apr 2019 15:15:00 EST El Paso’s economy continues to expand, with jobs rising 2.1 percent year to date. March existing-home sales picked up from February but are below year-ago levels. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2019/1904 Mon, 29 Apr 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity continued to expand in April, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2019/hou1905 Mon, 29 Apr 2019 12:07:00 EST Recent data for Houston are mixed, but they continue to paint a moderately positive outlook for the region. The Federal Reserve https://www.dallasfed.org:443/educate/everyday/fed Fri, 26 Apr 2019 12:13:00 EST Alexander Hamilton's ideas and vision for central banking in the 1700s had a lasting impact. Watch a quick animated video to learn how the founding father’s 1st Bank of the United States resonated hundreds of years later in the Federal Reserve. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2019/sa1904 Thu, 25 Apr 2019 15:08:00 EST The San Antonio economy expanded at a healthy pace in March. The unemployment rate declined to a multiyear low. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand at a rate above the long-term trend. Global Perspectives: Mike Leavitt on Health Care Costs and Higher Education https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0423 Tue, 23 Apr 2019 09:04:00 EST The U.S. health care system is uniquely innovative, but it is also arguably uniquely inefficient. Health outcomes in the U.S.—whether measured in terms of simple metrics such as life expectancy or more sophisticated ones such as quality-adjusted life years—do not seem commensurate with health care expenditures. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2019/tei1904 Tue, 23 Apr 2019 09:19:00 EST Texas economic indicators pointed to moderate expansion in March. Job growth outpaced its long-run average, and unemployment remained low. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2019/dfw1904 Tue, 23 Apr 2019 14:51:00 EST Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth continued to be healthy in March. Payroll employment in the first quarter expanded at its fastest rate in two and a half years. The Contribution of Jump Signs and Activity to Forecasting Stock Price Volatility https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2019/wp1902 Fri, 19 Apr 2019 15:13:00 EST We document the forecasting gains achieved by incorporating measures of signed, finite and infinite jumps in forecasting the volatility of equity prices, using high-frequency data from 2000 to 2016. Global Perspectives: Janet Yellen on Becoming an Economist, Being Fed Chair and Views on Fed Independence https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0418 Thu, 18 Apr 2019 07:00:00 EST Janet Yellen holds a unique place in Federal Reserve history. It all began with a year as a humble Fed staff economist in 1977. Online Retailing, Self-Employment Disrupt Inflation https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0416 Tue, 16 Apr 2019 07:00:00 EST The employment status of increasing numbers of workers has become contingent in recent years—that is, there is greater freelance, or “gig,” employment. This development has coincided over the past two decades with an era of increasing online commerce that provides consumers a wider array of products and services at competitive prices. Small Business Credit Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/cd/EconDev/2017sbcs Tue, 16 Apr 2019 14:30:00 EST This report presents national survey findings on business conditions, financial challenges and credit environment from the perspective of small business owners with employees. Globally Competitive Texas Exports Sensitive to U.S. Trade Policy https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0411 Thu, 11 Apr 2019 07:00:00 EST Texas, the nation’s largest exporting state, enjoys a strong position in world trade. The state continues to see exports climb, and it exhibits a manufacturing edge in energy-related products and intermediate goods based on an index of comparative advantage. Modern Refineries, Shale Boom Upend Traditional Oil Price Relationships https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0409 Tue, 09 Apr 2019 07:00:00 EST Different crude oils can sell for dramatically different prices with sometimes far-reaching effects on the energy industry—from impacts on oil producers’ production decisions to oil refineries’ profit margins. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2019/en1904 Tue, 09 Apr 2019 14:47:00 EST Investor returns in the energy sector have lagged behind the broader market for some time. This has led to restraint in capital spending plans for 2019, which may be contributing to a lower rig count and a tepid outlook for employment growth this year. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2019/aus1904 Fri, 05 Apr 2019 09:40:00 EST The Austin economy grew moderately in February. The Austin Business-Cycle Index expanded but remained below its long-term trend. Mexico's Output Growth Slows, Outlook Worsens https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2019/1902 Fri, 05 Apr 2019 16:19:00 EST Mexico’s economy grew an annualized 1.0 percent in fourth quarter 2018 after expanding a revised 2.4 percent in the third quarter. Texas Economic Activity Stabilizes, but Slower Job Growth Is Ahead https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0404 Thu, 04 Apr 2019 07:00:00 EST Output growth in Texas has stabilized after a relatively robust 2018. However, a tight labor market, slowing energy activity and weakening global demand will restrain Texas growth during 2019, an assessment consistent with the Dallas Fed’s outlook for the year. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2019/hou1904 Tue, 02 Apr 2019 16:09:00 EST Houston job growth, leading and coincident indicators, and oil and fuel prices have improved over the past few months. Mining-related employment continued to grow, and bank lending expanded faster in the region than the nation. Risks Abound If China Uses Debt to Stimulate Economy from Current Downturn https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0402 Tue, 02 Apr 2019 07:00:00 EST The Chinese economy is losing steam. As China considers how to work through its difficulties, its chances of success may depend on how it finances the debt it incurs while attempting to boost economic activity. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2019/ep1904 Mon, 01 Apr 2019 13:08:00 EST El Paso’s economy continues to expand. While employment contracted in February, jobs rose 1.2 percent year to date. Existing-home sales dipped, while median-home prices inched up in February. Agricultural Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/agsurvey/2019/ag1901 Mon, 01 Apr 2019 18:02:00 EST Bankers responding to the first-quarter survey reported overall weaker conditions across most regions of the Eleventh District. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2019/sa1903a Fri, 29 Mar 2019 11:01:00 EST The San Antonio economy expanded at a stable rate in February. The unemployment rate declined, and the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand, though at a rate slightly below the long-term trend. 2018 Congressional Report https://www.dallasfed.org:443/fed/omwi/congress Fri, 29 Mar 2019 12:00:00 EST This report details the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' 2018 performance related to the OMWI provisions of the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, January 2019 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2019/pce1901 Fri, 29 Mar 2019 16:47:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index declined 0.7 percent at an annualized rate in January following a 0.7 percent annualized increase a month earlier. Global Perspectives: Greg Mankiw on Economic Advice, Climate Change and Trade https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0328 Thu, 28 Mar 2019 08:00:00 EST Mankiw and Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discussed some of the things that economists don't understand about politicians (and that politicians don't understand about economists). Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2019/dfw1903 Wed, 27 Mar 2019 12:18:00 EST Dallas–Fort Worth economic growth continued in February, with payroll employment expanding and unemployment staying low. Looking at the two-month period, employment performance has been healthy—above the metro’s long-run average. Dallas Fed Energy Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/des/2019/1901 Wed, 27 Mar 2019 09:30:00 EST Energy sector activity grew modestly in first quarter 2019, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. Texas Service Sector Activity Decelerates https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2019/1903 Tue, 26 Mar 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector activity growth softened in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. How Much Do Movers Move Average Wage Growth? https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0326 Tue, 26 Mar 2019 11:38:00 EST Data from the Current Population Survey, a household survey used to compute the unemployment rate, do not include individuals who change residences. If it could include movers, our previous estimate of 2018 average individual wage growth would increase from 5.0 percent to 5.5 percent or higher. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2019/1903 Mon, 25 Mar 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity continued to expand in March, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2019/tei1903 Mon, 25 Mar 2019 14:43:00 EST Texas economic indicators pointed to moderate economic growth in February. Job growth was near its long-run average, and unemployment remained low. Go Figure: Shale Revolution Boosts Texas Refiners' Competitiveness https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1901f Fri, 22 Mar 2019 15:25:00 EST If Texas were a country, it would rank second in the world in refining capacity. Spotlight: Abundant Sunshine Not Enough to Power Texas Residential Solar Energy https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1901e Fri, 22 Mar 2019 15:30:00 EST The Texas electricity market doesn't shine in residential solar energy despite plentiful sunlight. Civic Leader Seeks to Bolster Texas Attributes by 2036 Bicentennial https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1901c Fri, 22 Mar 2019 15:40:00 EST Tom Luce, a Dallas attorney, is currently leading Texas 2036, which aims to create a policy roadmap for Texas as it heads toward its bicentennial. Lower Oil Prices, Tight Labor Markets to Restrain Texas Growth in 2019 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1901d Fri, 22 Mar 2019 15:35:00 EST Texas' economy should expand in 2019, though at a slower rate than in the prior year. Southwest Economy https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe Fri, 22 Mar 2019 23:00:00 EST The latest issue looks at Texas exports amid shifting trade policy and the state's outlook for growth in 2019. It also includes a Spotlight on Texas residential solar energy, a Q&A with Tom Luce on Texas 2036 and an infographic on the shale revolution's impact on refining. President's Perspective https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2019/swe1901a Fri, 22 Mar 2019 15:50:00 EST Dallas Fed economists expect GDP growth to slow in 2019 primarily due to waning fiscal stimulus, global growth deceleration and slowing job growth due to a tight labor market. Permian Basin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/pb Fri, 22 Mar 2019 16:25:00 EST <em>Permian Basin Economic Indicators</em> is a monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the Permian Basin economy. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2019/hou1903 Tue, 19 Mar 2019 09:18:00 EST Growth in employment and the business-cycle index slowed for Houston at the start of the year. Leading indicators were mixed but largely painted a softer outlook for 2019. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2019/sa1903 Mon, 18 Mar 2019 11:01:00 EST The San Antonio economy grew at a steady pace in January. Although the unemployment rate ticked up, the San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand at a rate slightly above trend. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2019/aus1903 Fri, 15 Mar 2019 11:51:00 EST The Austin economy saw mixed performance in January. The Austin Business-Cycle Index decelerated and remained below its long-term trend. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2019/dfw1902 Thu, 14 Mar 2019 14:06:00 EST The Dallas–Fort Worth economy continued its expansion in January. Job growth was moderate, and the Dallas Business-Cycle Index rose. However, the Fort Worth Business-Cycle Index fell following robust growth in 2018. Dallas–Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw Thu, 14 Mar 2019 18:23:00 EST <em>Dallas–Fort Worth Economic Indicators</em> is a monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the Dallas-Fort Worth economy. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2019/tei1902 Mon, 11 Mar 2019 15:56:00 EST Texas economic indicators improved in January. The state posted solid job growth that was broad based across metros but mixed among sectors. Growth in the business-cycle index continued to decelerate but remained above its long-term trend. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei Mon, 11 Mar 2019 18:15:00 EST <em>Texas Economic Indicators</em> is a web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the Texas economy. Global Perspectives: Richard Clarida on U.S. Monetary Policy https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0307 Thu, 07 Mar 2019 08:00:00 EST Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida discusses a range of topics, including the challenges facing monetary policymakers, the U.S. fiscal situation and the global role of the dollar. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2019/ep1903 Thu, 07 Mar 2019 09:56:00 EST Trade through the port is unchanged, while maquiladora employment picked up in late 2018. Home sales have slowed, but home affordability remains above average in El Paso. Despite the strong dollar, El Paso retail sales were steady in second quarter 2018. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2019/en1903 Tue, 05 Mar 2019 13:19:00 EST OPEC production cuts and U.S. sanctions on Venezuela have helped global oil prices partly recover from 2018 declines this year, and increased pipeline capacity is lifting West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices in Midland. The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States: Reply to Jentsch and Lunsford https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2018/wp1805 Mon, 04 Mar 2019 21:48:00 EST When focusing on the relevant impulse responses, the evidence for economic and statistically significant macroeconomic effects of tax changes in Mertens and Ravn (2013) remains present for a range of asymptotically valid inference methods. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, December 2018 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2018/pce1812 Fri, 01 Mar 2019 16:11:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 0.7 percent at an annualized rate in December following a 0.6 percent annualized increase a month earlier. Global Perspectives: John Hess on U.S. Oil Reserves, Climate Change https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0228 Thu, 28 Feb 2019 08:00:00 EST Few sectors of the U.S. economy have undergone as radical a transformation in recent years as the energy sector, and few loom as large in the economic fortunes of Texas and the Eleventh District. Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/snm/2019/snm1901 Wed, 27 Feb 2019 09:47:00 EST New Mexico posted robust job gains in 2018, while Las Cruces payrolls grew slightly. Home sales posted solid increases in both Las Cruces and the state. Texas Service Sector Activity Expands at Accelerated Pace https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2019/1902 Tue, 26 Feb 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector activity accelerated in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Is Wage Growth Higher than We Think? https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0226 Tue, 26 Feb 2019 08:00:00 EST There is always widespread interest in the degree to which the U.S. labor market generates higher pay for workers. A standard measure of wage growth suggests that this expansion is not improving the standard of living of workers, but our analysis reveals that actual wage growth is understated. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2019/1902 Mon, 25 Feb 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity continued to expand in February, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. Not Everything Is Bigger in Texas: The Varied Fortunes of Four Smaller Metros https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0221 Thu, 21 Feb 2019 08:00:00 EST While Texas’ major metropolitan areas power the bulk of the state’s commercial activity, some smaller metros have worked to establish their place as part of the state’s economic mosaic. Changes in Labor Force Participation Help Explain Recent Job Gains https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0219 Tue, 19 Feb 2019 08:00:00 EST The U.S. labor force participation rate declined following the Great Recession to a low of 62.3 percent in 2015. The Zero Lower Bound and Estimation Accuracy https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2018/wp1804 Tue, 19 Feb 2019 19:37:00 EST During the Great Recession, many central banks lowered their policy rate to its zero lower bound, creating a kink in the policy rule and calling into question linear estimation methods. Dallas Fed Energy Survey Suggests Oil Price Drop Won’t Cause Sector Collapse in 2019 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0214 Thu, 14 Feb 2019 08:00:00 EST Following a banner year in 2018, will U.S. oil producers retrench and reduce capital spending after the recent double-digit oil price decline? The latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey provides some clues about what may be next. Closer to One Great Pool? Evidence from Structural Breaks in Oil Price Differentials https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2019/wp1901 Wed, 13 Feb 2019 15:27:00 EST We show that the oil market has become closer to “one great pool,” in the sense that price differentials between crude oils of different qualities have generally become smaller over time. Inverted Yield Curve (Nearly Always) Signals Tight Monetary Policy, Rising Unemployment https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0212 Tue, 12 Feb 2019 08:00:00 EST With long-term interest rates falling and short-term rates rising, there has been increasing talk of a possible yield-curve inversion and speculation about what an inversion might mean for the U.S. economy. Mexico's Output Growth Slows in the Fourth Quarter https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2019/1901 Fri, 08 Feb 2019 11:40:00 EST Mexico’s economy grew an annualized 1.2 percent in fourth quarter 2018 after expanding 3.4 percent in the third quarter. Global Perspectives: Maya MacGuineas on Stabilizing the Federal Debt https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/economics/2019/0207 Thu, 07 Feb 2019 15:00:00 EST A good measure of a nation’s ability to repay its obligations is the ratio of the stock of indebtedness to the flow of output produced in a given year. In recent years, this ratio has increased for the U.S. government, raising new questions about how the nation manages a debt burden that is approaching an all-time high. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2019/aus1902 Thu, 07 Feb 2019 15:02:00 EST The Austin economy expanded at a healthy pace in December. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated and remained above its long-term trend. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2019/en1902 Tue, 05 Feb 2019 14:59:00 EST Crude oil prices rebounded somewhat in January from end-of-year levels, but the rig count slipped on earlier price declines. The Neutral Rate of Interest https://www.dallasfed.org:443/news/speeches/kaplan/2018/rsk190105 Tue, 05 Feb 2019 10:00:00 EST This essay explores a number of the key issues associated with using the neutral rate concept in formulating monetary policy. Growth in Texas Economy Downshifts https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/reg/2019/1901 Fri, 01 Feb 2019 12:43:00 EST The Texas economy experienced another downshift in growth over the last two months, although the level of activity remains strong. Texas Service Sector Activity Picks Up https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2019/1901 Tue, 29 Jan 2019 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector activity grew at a faster pace in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey.