Headlines - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas serves the public by contributing to national monetary policy, supervising and regulating financial institutions, and helping maintain a strong payments system. http://www.dallasfed.org/rss/ en-us http://www.dallasfed.org/ Dallas Fed Logo http://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/Images/img/logo_gray http://www.dallasfed.org/rss/ Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2018/en1802 Thu, 15 Feb 2018 14:02:00 EST Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil went up in January to a three-year high. Permian Basin crude oil production continued to increase as the oil rig count continues to rise. Mexico Economic Growth Rebounds in Fourth Quarter https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2018/1801 Fri, 09 Feb 2018 09:49:00 EST Mexico’s economic output recovered sharply in the fourth quarter, rising 4.1 percent after falling in the third quarter as a result of the September earthquakes. Global Growth Outlook Reflects Sustained Recovery https://www.dallasfed.org:443/institute/update/2018/int1801 Tue, 06 Feb 2018 10:06:00 EST Global growth accelerated in 2017, supported by strengthening labor markets and external demand. Although inflation concerns among advanced countries abated, risks remain and are mostly tilted to the downside. Thriving Texas Economy Expands Broadly https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/reg/2018/1801 Mon, 05 Feb 2018 15:01:00 EST The Texas economy continues its broad expansion. Texas employment growth accelerated in the fourth quarter and was strong across most metros and industries. Global Interfirm Network Reveals Centrality of U.S. and Financial Sector https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/eclett/2018/el1802 Fri, 02 Feb 2018 13:09:00 EST While there is evidence of direct contagion passing between firms in the global interfirm network, there are also indications that connectedness plays a role in a reduced likelihood of firm distress and improved performance. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, December 2017 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2017/pce1712 Fri, 02 Feb 2018 14:12:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 1.3 percent annualized rate in December, as a sharp decline in gasoline prices weighed on the headline index. Data Point to Momentum in GDP Growth as Year Begins https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/us/2018/1801 Fri, 02 Feb 2018 18:20:00 EST U.S. economic growth slowed in fourth quarter 2017 following two strong quarters. The Death of the Phillips Curve? https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2018/wp1801 Fri, 02 Feb 2018 12:49:00 EST Are inflation dynamics well captured by Phillips Curve models, or has this framework become less relevant over time? The evidence for the U.S. suggests that the slopes of the price and wage Phillips Curves– the short-run inflation-unemployment trade-offs – are low and have got a little flatter. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2018/aus1802 Thu, 01 Feb 2018 12:08:00 EST Austin economic growth remained robust in December. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated as job growth remained above trend and the unemployment rate held at a very low level. Texas Service Sector Activity Continues to Expand but at Slower Pace https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2018/1801 Tue, 30 Jan 2018 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector activity continued to increase in January, albeit at a slower pace than last month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2018/hou1802 Tue, 30 Jan 2018 16:07:00 EST Economic data were mostly positive for Houston in December. Employment grew, and business-cycle and leading indexes were indicative of healthy economic output and future growth. Construction and real estate metrics were mixed but pointed to a tighter housing market and increased construction ahead. Overall, the outlook for Houston remains positive. Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce Mon, 29 Jan 2018 13:04:00 EST The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate for November was an annualized 2.2 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for November was 2.8 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 0.9 percent. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2018/ep1801 Fri, 26 Jan 2018 10:00:00 EST El Paso economic activity continues to climb. Maquiladoras in Ciudad Juárez are still adding jobs, and trade through the El Paso port of entry is steady. Home sales in El Paso remain robust, near all-time highs. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2018/sa1801 Fri, 26 Jan 2018 10:08:00 EST The San Antonio economy expanded at a robust pace in December. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index grew at its fastest pace since early 2015. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep Thu, 25 Jan 2018 13:25:00 EST <em>El Paso Economic Indicators</em> is a web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the El Paso economy. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2018/dfw1801 Wed, 24 Jan 2018 09:31:00 EST The Dallas–Fort Worth economy expanded modestly in December. The Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes continued to grow at year end, posting solid growth in 2017. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2018/tei1801 Mon, 22 Jan 2018 16:16:00 EST The Texas economy strengthened in 2017. Though Texas employment growth was slower than expected in December, the Texas Leading Index strengthened. Texas Employment Forecast https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/forecast Fri, 19 Jan 2018 13:47:00 EST Incorporating December employment growth of 0.6 percent and leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.8 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.2 to 4.4 percent. Texas Job Growth Swings More with Services than Oil https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/eclett/2018/el1801 Fri, 19 Jan 2018 14:19:00 EST As the Texas economy diversified after the 1980s oil bust, the link between overall economic growth and the oil and gas sector weakened. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2018/en1801 Thu, 18 Jan 2018 12:17:00 EST Indicators for the Texas oil and gas sector continued to improve in December. Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose in December. Texas oil and gas employment expanded further in November, marking 10 consecutive months of increases. Permian Basin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/pb Wed, 17 Jan 2018 17:39:00 EST <em>Permian Basin Economic Indicators</em> is a monthly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the Permian Basin economy. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2018/aus1801 Fri, 05 Jan 2018 08:00:00 EST Economic growth in Austin was robust in November. The Austin Business-Cycle Index accelerated as jobs remained strong and the unemployment rate held at a very low level. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2018/hou1801 Thu, 04 Jan 2018 09:50:00 EST Houston economic activity continued to improve in November. The Houston Business-Cycle Index ticked up, employment totals surpassed pre-hurricane levels, and mining-related employment increased. Agricultural Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/agsurvey/2017/ag1704 Tue, 02 Jan 2018 12:52:00 EST Bankers responding to the fourth-quarter survey noted conditions had turned dry again across a number of regions. Dallas Fed Energy Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/des/2017/1704 Thu, 28 Dec 2017 09:30:00 EST Business activity gained momentum in the fourth quarter, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/sa171228 Thu, 28 Dec 2017 15:31:00 EST The San Antonio economy continued to grow at a steady pace in November. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index expanded above trend as jobs grew and the area unemployment rate stayed at a very low level. Texas Service Sector Activity Strengthens Further https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2017/1712 Wed, 27 Dec 2017 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector activity increased again in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/dfw171227 Wed, 27 Dec 2017 14:59:00 EST The Dallas–Fort Worth economy expanded at a rapid clip in November. The Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes continued to post above-trend gains, as job growth was strong. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/ep171227 Wed, 27 Dec 2017 17:03:00 EST Economic activity in El Paso remains solid. Maquiladoras in Ciudad Juárez continue to add jobs, and trade through the port remains steady. Home sales in El Paso remain robust, near all-time highs. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/tei171227 Wed, 27 Dec 2017 18:02:00 EST Texas economic growth was robust in November. The state posted strong job gains, and the unemployment rate fell to a record low for the second month in a row. Economic Outlook Stable Despite Weaker Third-Quarter Data https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2017/1708 Fri, 22 Dec 2017 13:20:00 EST The consensus Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast for 2018 remained at 2.3 percent despite a downward revision of third quarter 2017 growth. Forecasters are predicting a bounce back in activity in the fourth quarter. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, November 2017 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2017/pce1711 Fri, 22 Dec 2017 15:04:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 2.8 percent annualized rate in November following a 1.8 percent increase in October. President's Perspective https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2017/swe1704a Thu, 21 Dec 2017 10:00:00 EST "The headline unemployment rate and other measures of labor market utilization are at or below prerecession lows." Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/en1712 Thu, 21 Dec 2017 11:03:00 EST Positive signs are continuing for the Texas oil and gas sector. Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose in November. Texas oil and gas employment expanded further in October, marking nine consecutive months of increases. On the Record: A Conversation with Judge Ed Emmett https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2017/swe1704c Thu, 21 Dec 2017 10:00:00 EST Edward M. Emmett became Harris County judge in 2007. He is the chief administrative officer and director of emergency management in the county, which includes most of the city of Houston. He recently released a 15-point plan to prevent future flooding disasters. Harris County is the third-most populous U.S. county, accounting for two-thirds of the Houston metropolitan statistical area’s population of 6.8 million people. Mexico’s ‘SOFOM’ Finance Firms Attempt to Broaden Loan Availability https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2017/swe1704e Thu, 21 Dec 2017 10:01:00 EST The market presence of Mexican finance companies known as SOFOMES has expanded rapidly since the global financial crisis. The firms largely operate as independent outlets and provide financing to small- and medium-sized companies as well as to consumers for larger purchases. Authorities see SOFOMES as a way to expand credit to Mexico’s informal economy. Spotlight: Rising Education Helps Explain Hispanic Household Income Growth in Texas https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2017/swe1704f Thu, 21 Dec 2017 10:00:00 EST Hispanic household income has grown considerably in real (inflation-adjusted) terms in Texas and the U.S. during recent years. Go Figure—Remittances to Central America Soar https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2017/swe1704g Thu, 21 Dec 2017 10:00:00 EST Leading Indicators, Storm Data Guide Houston Economic Forecast https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2017/swe1704d Thu, 21 Dec 2017 10:02:00 EST A forecasting model for Houston that incorporates storm damage data and leading economic indicators can help project post-Hurricane Harvey employment growth. The forecast indicates that Houston’s economy will grow near its 2 percent historical average in 2018. Why Haven’t Regional Wages Converged? https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2017/wp1711 Thu, 21 Dec 2017 10:09:00 EST Regional wage convergence has long been predicted across the United States as barriers to factor mobility have fallen, yet there is little evidence (apart from a brief period in the 1970s and 1980s) that convergence has actually occurred. Why not? Texas Economy Finishes the Year Firing on All Cylinders https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/reg/2017/1708 Wed, 20 Dec 2017 09:41:00 EST The Texas economy continues to expand at a steady pace as payroll employment rebounds strongly in the wake of Hurricane Harvey. The Texas Business Outlook Surveys suggest continued growth in the state’s manufacturing and service sectors. High Growth and Steady Inflation Mark End of 2017 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/us/2017/1708 Wed, 20 Dec 2017 17:18:00 EST The general economic picture at year-end 2017 is little changed from earlier in the year, with growth, employment and business confidence remaining strong. Southwest Economy https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe Wed, 20 Dec 2017 11:04:00 EST The latest Southwest Economy looks at the ACA's impact in Texas, Houston’s forecast post-Harvey and nonbank finance firms in Mexico. Global Economy Expands During Third Quarter https://www.dallasfed.org:443/institute/update/2017/int1708 Tue, 19 Dec 2017 10:39:00 EST Third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data suggest increased real (inflation-adjusted) global economic activity. World (excluding U.S.) GDP grew 3.4 percent on a year-over-year basis in the third quarter. OPEC Extends Cuts, Opening Door for U.S. to Gain Further Market Share https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/energyupdate/2017/en1704 Mon, 18 Dec 2017 07:00:00 EST OPEC and some non-OPEC countries have agreed to extend their output cuts through next year despite losing market share. Crude oil prices have increased roughly 15 percent over the fourth quarter on the back of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and in anticipation of the agreement. El Paso Booms, Headwinds Increase https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/crossroads/1701 Mon, 18 Dec 2017 13:34:00 EST Despite the recent sluggishness in the Texas economy, El Paso has had one of its strongest economic performances in the last two years. Local job growth outpaced the state and the nation in both 2015 and 2016. Brexit Through the Gift Shop: No Refunds https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/eclett/2017/el1715 Fri, 15 Dec 2017 14:19:00 EST The effects of Brexit through higher barriers to trade could cost British households the equivalent of 428 British pounds annually or $580 in 2016 prices. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/aus171208 Fri, 08 Dec 2017 09:49:00 EST The Austin economy expanded at a robust pace in October. The Austin Business-Cycle Index continued to grow above its long-term rate, as jobs remained strong and the unemployment rate reached its lowest level since the late 1990s. The CRA at 40: Law Remains a Cornerstone of Community Development https://www.dallasfed.org:443/cd/cos/1701 Thu, 07 Dec 2017 15:34:00 EST The second issue of the Community Outlook Series, which uses survey data and qualitative interviews to assess the successes and challenges of low-and moderate-income Texans. Industry Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Re-examination https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2017/wp1710 Tue, 05 Dec 2017 10:49:00 EST Sectoral responses to oil price shocks help determine how these shocks are transmitted through the economy. Demand Shocks Fuel Commodity Price Booms and Busts https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/eclett/2017/el1714 Fri, 01 Dec 2017 17:00:00 EST Demand shocks due to rapid industrialization have driven commodity price booms throughout history. As periods of industrialization lose steam and supply catches up, busts follow after about 10 years. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, October 2017 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2017/pce1710 Thu, 30 Nov 2017 14:47:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 1.7 percent annualized rate in October, following a 4.9 percent increase in September. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/hou171130 Thu, 30 Nov 2017 13:31:00 EST Recovery from Hurricane Harvey was evident in October data. Employment bounced back, job ads improved, and leading indexes were neutral to positive for job growth ahead. Texas Service Sector Activity Strengthens Further https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2017/1711 Tue, 28 Nov 2017 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector activity increased again in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. A Balanced Approach to Monetary Policy https://www.dallasfed.org:443/news/speeches/kaplan/2017/rsk171127 Mon, 27 Nov 2017 11:30:00 EST In a new essay, Robert S. Kaplan provides a synopsis of his current views regarding economic conditions and U.S. monetary policy. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/sa171124 Fri, 24 Nov 2017 08:49:00 EST The San Antonio economy grew at a steady pace in October. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index expanded above trend as jobs surged and the area unemployment rate declined to a 16-year low. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/ep171122 Wed, 22 Nov 2017 09:30:00 EST Economic activity in El Paso remains solid. Maquiladora activity in Ciudad Juárez is healthy, and the El Paso housing market stayed strong, with sales near all-time highs. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/tei171121 Tue, 21 Nov 2017 12:41:00 EST The Texas economy strengthened in October. The state posted strong job gains, and the unemployment rate fell to a record low. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/dfw171121 Tue, 21 Nov 2017 18:18:00 EST The Dallas–Fort Worth economy continued to expand in October, with business-cycle indexes posting above-trend growth and payroll employment climbing in both metros. Real-time Data Inaccuracies Pose Challenges to Gauging the Oil Market https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/eclett/2017/el1713 Tue, 21 Nov 2017 12:18:00 EST Initial estimates of global oil market balance, or the implied change in global inventories, are frequently used to identify supply shortages or surpluses. These have important implications for future oil prices. Mexico Posts Negative Growth in Third Quarter https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2017/1707 Thu, 16 Nov 2017 08:56:00 EST Mexico’s economy contracted an annualized 0.8 percent in the third quarter, in part due to the economic disruption following two major earthquakes. Nevertheless, forecasters are predicting a bounceback in the fourth quarter. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/en1711 Thu, 16 Nov 2017 09:43:00 EST Positive signs are starting to reappear for the Texas oil and gas sector. Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose in October. Texas oil and gas employment expanded further in September, marking eight consecutive months of increases. Texas Economy Resilient to Storm Effects https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/reg/2017/1707 Fri, 10 Nov 2017 09:15:00 EST Texas lost fewer jobs than expected in September as a result of Hurricane Harvey, and post-hurricane data from the Texas Business Outlook Surveys (TBOS) point toward a rapid recovery from the storm. Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/snm/snm1703 Fri, 10 Nov 2017 18:05:00 EST Employment in Las Cruces remained relatively unchanged in the first nine months of the year. Home sales continue to show strength, and prices have ticked up. Trade through Santa Teresa has rebounded from a year ago, driven by gains in both imports and exports. China’s Capital Controls Appear to Arrest Flight, Stabilize Currency https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/eclett/2017/el1712 Fri, 10 Nov 2017 14:39:00 EST China’s yuan and balance of payments appear to have stabilized by early 2017. Controls on capital outflows may have been a key factor that averted a full-blown financial crisis in the country. U.S. Expansion Stays on Steady Course https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/us/2017/1707 Mon, 06 Nov 2017 17:56:00 EST Despite recent hurricanes, economic data released since late September point to steady economic growth and underlying momentum through year-end and into 2018. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, September 2017 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2017/pce1709 Fri, 03 Nov 2017 14:21:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 4.6 percent annualized rate in September, following a 2.5 percent increase in August. Global Outlook Continues Improving https://www.dallasfed.org:443/institute/update/2017/int1707 Fri, 03 Nov 2017 10:02:00 EST World gross domestic product (GDP) edged up in the second quarter, thanks to improvement in both advanced and emerging economies. Fed’s Effective Lower Bound Constraint on Monetary Policy Created Uncertainty https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/eclett/2017/el1711 Fri, 03 Nov 2017 10:14:00 EST Uncertainty about the economy increased when the Fed reduced the federal funds rate to its effective lower bound because the constraint restricted the Fed’s ability to stabilize the economy. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/aus171102 Thu, 02 Nov 2017 11:40:00 EST The Austin economy expanded at a robust pace in September. The Austin Business-Cycle Index grew above its long-term trend, buoyed by strong job growth and a further decline in the area unemployment rate. Trade data for 2016 show that Austin exports continued to rise even as they declined for the state overall. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/ep171101 Wed, 01 Nov 2017 09:19:00 EST Economic activity in El Paso remains solid. Nonfarm employment continued to climb in September. Maquiladora activity in Ciudad Juárez is healthy, and the El Paso housing market remains strong, with sales near all-time highs. Texas Service Sector Activity Picks Up https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2017/1710 Tue, 31 Oct 2017 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector activity increased again in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. The revenue index, a key measure of state service sector conditions, rose from 15.9 in September to 19.2 in October, its highest reading this year. Does Medicaid Generosity Affect Household Income? https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2017/wp1709 Tue, 31 Oct 2017 16:44:00 EST Using a Regression Kink Design (RKD) framework, this paper takes a uniquely different approach to the identification of the effect of Medicaid generosity on household income. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/hou171031 Tue, 31 Oct 2017 12:37:00 EST Hurricane Harvey significantly affected economic activity in Houston at the end of August and through a good portion of September. Available data indicate that recovery is well underway for some sectors. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2017/1710 Mon, 30 Oct 2017 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity expanded at a faster pace in October, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/sa171026 Thu, 26 Oct 2017 14:00:00 EST The San Antonio economy continued to grow at a brisk pace in September. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index expanded above trend, as jobs grew moderately and the area unemployment rate declined. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/dfw171024 Tue, 24 Oct 2017 10:09:00 EST The Dallas–Fort Worth economy strengthened in September. The Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes expanded further. Job gains were solid last month, and unemployment in both metros fell to its lowest level in a year, pointing to further tightening in labor markets. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/tei171023 Mon, 23 Oct 2017 15:10:00 EST Texas economic indicators were mixed in September. Employment contracted as a result of the impact of Hurricane Harvey, and exports and existing-home sales weakened in August. Community Outlook Series (COS) https://www.dallasfed.org:443/cd/cos Mon, 23 Oct 2017 16:00:00 EST Using survey data and qualitative interviews, COS assesses the needs, successes and challenges of low- and moderate income families across Texas, as well as organizations that serve them. Each report features analysis of a specific topic. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/en1710 Thu, 19 Oct 2017 08:30:00 EST Prices for both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil and Henry Hub natural gas rose slightly in September. The WTI–Brent spread widened to the highest level since March 2015 as crude inventories at Cushing rose. Impact of Hurricane Harvey and a Discussion of Key Structural Drivers Affecting U.S. Monetary Policy https://www.dallasfed.org:443/news/speeches/kaplan/2017/rsk171017 Tue, 17 Oct 2017 09:00:00 EST In a new essay, Robert S. Kaplan provides a synopsis of his current views regarding the economic impact of Hurricane Harvey as well as economic conditions and U.S. monetary policy. Global and National Shocks Explain a Large Share of State Job Growth https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/eclett/2017/el1710 Fri, 13 Oct 2017 09:40:00 EST Global and U.S. national shocks on average appear to equally explain more than half of the fluctuations in state employment growth, an important measure of assessing real economic activity. The overall assessment, however, conceals a wide variation among states. The U.S. Shale Oil Boom, the Oil Export Ban, and the Economy: A General Equilibrium Analysis https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2017/wp1708 Wed, 11 Oct 2017 17:10:00 EST This paper examines the effects of the U.S. shale oil boom in a two-country DSGE model where countries produce crude oil, refined oil products, and a non-oil good. The model incorporates different types of crude oil that are imperfect substitutes for each other as inputs into the refining sector. 2018 Outlook Unchanged Despite Harvey Impacts https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/energyupdate/2017/en1703 Fri, 06 Oct 2017 16:05:00 EST The destructive hurricane season that impacted the U.S. and Caribbean this year also threatened the oil and gas sector across the Gulf Coast. Yet only Hurricane Harvey substantially affected the sector, and many of Harvey’s effects are already fading. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/aus171005 Thu, 05 Oct 2017 14:23:00 EST The Austin economy expanded at a moderate pace in August. Growth in the Austin Business-Cycle Index continued to fall below its long-term trend as jobs declined in August, although the area unemployment rate remained flat at a low level. Agricultural Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/agsurvey/2017/ag1703 Tue, 03 Oct 2017 09:21:00 EST Bankers responding to the third-quarter survey noted moisture conditions are generally good, but flooding in a couple regions caused losses of crops and cattle. Crop yields are expected to be above average. Respondents noted that livestock prices generally remained good. Mexico Growth Stalls in July https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2017/1706 Mon, 02 Oct 2017 10:58:00 EST Mexico’s economic output contracted in July as the monthly gross domestic product (GDP) measure declined. Before release of the most recent data, the consensus 2017 GDP growth forecast had been revised higher, to 2.2 percent in August from 2 percent in July. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, August 2017 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2017/pce1708 Fri, 29 Sep 2017 14:52:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose at a 2.5 percent annualized rate in August, following a 1.2 percent increase in July. El Paso Economic Indicators, September 2017 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/ep170929 Fri, 29 Sep 2017 16:50:00 EST Economic activity in El Paso remains solid. Although El Paso posted monthly job losses in August, year-to-date gains are still robust. Hurricane Harvey Unlikely to Throw Texas Off Course https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/reg/2017/1706 Fri, 29 Sep 2017 10:02:00 EST Hurricane Harvey caused widespread damage and broad disruption to the Southeast Texas economy. Preliminary estimates indicate that Harvey will be one of the costliest U.S. hurricanes, ahead of Sandy and behind Katrina. Global Outlook Improves https://www.dallasfed.org:443/institute/update/2017/int1706 Thu, 28 Sep 2017 11:00:00 EST Recent data on global gross domestic product (GDP) growth point to a modest and broad-based increase in real economic activity. Rob Kaplan Discusses Technology-Enabled Disruption https://www.dallasfed.org:443/news/speeches/kaplan/2017/rsk170926 Thu, 28 Sep 2017 09:59:00 EST In a new series of videos, Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan discusses technology-enabled disruption and its likely impact on inflation, labor markets and the skills gap in the United States. Dallas Fed Energy Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/des/2017/1703 Wed, 27 Sep 2017 09:30:00 EST Business activity continued to increase in the third quarter, but at a slower pace, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. Texas Service Sector Activity Strengthens Further https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2017/1709 Tue, 26 Sep 2017 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector growth picked up slightly in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/hou170926 Tue, 26 Sep 2017 12:15:00 EST The Houston economy continued to expand at a modest, but slower, pace through August. The business-cycle index and employment data were weaker, and the energy industry provided less of a boost to Houston over the summer. Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tmos/2017/1709 Mon, 25 Sep 2017 09:30:00 EST Texas factory activity continued to increase in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. National Economy on Solid Footing Before Arrival of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/us/2017/1706 Mon, 25 Sep 2017 13:13:00 EST Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, if taken together, would rank among the costliest weather-related disasters in U.S. history based on the estimated value of destroyed or damaged property and infrastructure. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/sa170922 Fri, 22 Sep 2017 08:00:00 EST The San Antonio economy accelerated in August. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index expanded at its fastest pace since 2016, as the area unemployment rate held flat but job growth surged. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/en1709 Fri, 22 Sep 2017 08:30:00 EST In August, prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose slightly, while natural gas prices fell marginally. Texas Retail in the Doldrums; Brick-and-Mortar Stores Take the Brunt https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2017/swe1703d Wed, 20 Sep 2017 16:57:00 EST Texas retailers have confronted a pair of challenges. First, the 2015–16 oil bust depressed personal income, while a stronger dollar weakened demand for goods along the border. Second, amid the Texas economy’s recovery, brick-and-mortar retailers have been losing business to internet sales.