Headlines - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas serves the public by contributing to national monetary policy, supervising and regulating financial institutions, and helping maintain a strong payments system. http://www.dallasfed.org/rss/ en-us http://www.dallasfed.org/ Dallas Fed Logo http://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/Images/img/logo_gray http://www.dallasfed.org/rss/ Spotlight: Shale Oil Propels U.S. Crude Export Increase https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2018/swe1803f Fri, 21 Sep 2018 06:00:00 EST More than 90 percent of crude exports this year have originated on the Gulf Coast, generating jobs, capital and income for ports in Houston and Corpus Christi. Shale Renews Excitement in Energy Industry https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2018/swe1803d Fri, 21 Sep 2018 10:00:00 EST Mine Yücel discusses the evolution of the energy sector, its role in Texas and her perspective as a female energy economist. Texas Property Taxes Soar as Homeowners Confront Rising Values https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2018/swe1803c Fri, 21 Sep 2018 12:04:00 EST A precipitous rise in the amount of property taxes Texans pay has accompanied an uncharacteristically large increase in property tax valuations. Parental Borrowing for College Comes with Repayment Issues https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2018/swe1803e Fri, 21 Sep 2018 07:00:00 EST As the cost of college continues to rise, parents are increasingly taking out federally backed loans to help make ends meet for their children. President's Perspective https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2018/swe1803a Fri, 21 Sep 2018 15:27:00 EST Companies provided insight into new technologies they were adopting and their impact on operations and costs. Go Figure—If Texas Were a Country ... https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2018/swe1803g Fri, 21 Sep 2018 00:18:00 EST Texas is comparable to entire countries—and so are some of its local areas. Labor Market Effects of Credit Constraints: Evidence from a Natural Experiment https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2018/wp1810 Tue, 11 Sep 2018 19:37:00 EST We exploit the 1998 and 2003 constitutional amendment in Texas—allowing home equity loans and lines of credit for non-housing purposes—as natural experiments to estimate the effect of easier credit access on the labor market. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2018/aus1809 Fri, 07 Sep 2018 14:30:00 EST Austin economic growth weakened in July. The Austin Business-Cycle Index performed well below its long-term trend. The unemployment rate dipped and job growth softened, but wages inched up. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2018/en1809 Thu, 06 Sep 2018 16:42:00 EST Pipeline limitations are driving down local prices for oil and natural gas, causing drilling activity to flatten and the inventory of uncompleted wells to rise in the Permian Basin. Texas mining employment growth also slowed in July. Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation Rate https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce Thu, 30 Aug 2018 10:43:00 EST The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate for July was an annualized 1.6 percent. According to the BEA, the overall PCE inflation rate for July was 1.5 percent, annualized, while the inflation rate for PCE excluding food and energy was 1.9 percent. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, July 2018 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2018/pce1807 Thu, 30 Aug 2018 15:15:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 1.5 percent at an annualized rate in July, following a 1.4 percent annualized increase a month earlier. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2018/hou1809 Wed, 29 Aug 2018 17:14:00 EST Softer employment growth in July slowed the business-cycle index to a more modest above-trend growth rate. Revisions to employment data dulled Houston’s stellar job growth in the six months following Hurricane Harvey. Texas Service Sector Activity Continues to Expand https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2018/1808 Tue, 28 Aug 2018 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector activity continued to increase in August, albeit at a slower pace than last month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2018/sa1808 Thu, 23 Aug 2018 12:53:00 EST Growth in the San Antonio economy remained mild in July. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index accelerated, though it remains below its long-term average. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2018/ep1808 Wed, 22 Aug 2018 09:39:00 EST A strong labor market is boosting the El Paso economy. Year-to-date jobs gains have been broad based, and trade through the El Paso port of entry is up. Housing affordability remains above average. Where We Stand: Assessment of Economic Conditions and Implications for Monetary Policy https://www.dallasfed.org:443/news/speeches/kaplan/2018/rsk180821 Tue, 21 Aug 2018 09:30:00 EST The purpose of this essay is to discuss economic conditions in the Eleventh District and the U.S. It discusses the implications of this assessment for the stance of monetary policy in the U.S. Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/snm/2018/snm1803 Tue, 21 Aug 2018 11:39:00 EST Employment levels inched up in Las Cruces in the second quarter, while the state posted much stronger growth. Trade through the port is rising, and the rig count is well above year-ago levels. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2018/dfw1808 Tue, 21 Aug 2018 14:55:00 EST Economic expansion in Dallas–Fort Worth (DFW) remained broad based and swift, with the July jobs report showing the metro area growing at a 3.0 percent annualized rate—well above its long-run average. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei Mon, 20 Aug 2018 15:27:00 EST <em>Texas Economic Indicators</em> is a web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the Texas economy. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2018/tei1808 Mon, 20 Aug 2018 17:59:00 EST Texas’ economic expansion moderated in July. Employment growth softened, and growth in the Texas Business-Cycle Index slowed. The Dallas Fed’s Texas Business Outlook Surveys indicated a pickup in growth and continued optimism but also rising uncertainty. Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/snm Mon, 20 Aug 2018 15:02:00 EST Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators is a quarterly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the Southern New Mexico economy. Mexico Posts Negative Growth in Second Quarter but Outlook Stable https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2018/1805 Wed, 15 Aug 2018 13:25:00 EST Mexico’s economy contracted an annualized 0.4 percent in the second quarter. Nevertheless, the consensus growth forecast for 2018 held steady in June at 2.3 percent. Weathering the Storm: A Framework for Meeting CRA Obligations https://www.dallasfed.org:443/cd/pubs/storm Tue, 14 Aug 2018 11:50:00 EST This report provides a brief overview of disaster recovery and its connection to the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA). Red-Hot Texas Economic Growth Likely to Cool https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/reg/2018/1805 Fri, 10 Aug 2018 11:08:00 EST The regional economy is about as hot as the Texas summer. Texas job growth was a blistering 3.6 percent (annualized) in the first half of 2018. Does Medicaid Generosity Affect Household Income? https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2017/wp1709 Thu, 09 Aug 2018 18:31:00 EST Using a Regression Kink Design (RKD) framework, this paper takes a uniquely different approach to the identification of the effect of Medicaid generosity on household income. A Closer Look at the Behavior of Uncertainty and Disagreement: Micro Evidence from the Euro Area https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2018/wp1811 Wed, 08 Aug 2018 16:28:00 EST This paper examines point and density forecasts of real GDP growth, inflation and unemployment from the European Central Bank’s Survey of Professional Forecasters. Global Growth Continues but with Higher Uncertainty https://www.dallasfed.org:443/institute/update/2018/int1805 Tue, 07 Aug 2018 12:00:00 EST First-quarter GDP growth has been disappointing in a number of economies, and growth appears to be less synchronous than anticipated earlier in the year. U.S. Economy Appears Well-Positioned for Second Half https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/us/2018/1805 Tue, 07 Aug 2018 13:19:00 EST The U.S. economy entered its 10th year of economic expansion last month, and recent data point to continued economic growth for the second half of the year. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, June 2018 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2018/pce1806 Fri, 03 Aug 2018 14:03:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 1.2 percent at an annualized rate in June, following a 2.4 percent annualized increase a month earlier. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2018/en1808 Fri, 03 Aug 2018 16:42:00 EST Recent indicators have been mixed but continue to paint a positive overall picture for the industry. Drilling, well permit applications and production numbers have all plateaued in recent weeks. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2018/aus1808 Thu, 02 Aug 2018 14:30:00 EST The Austin economy continued to expand at a solid pace in June. The Austin Business-Cycle Index grew near its long-term trend. Although labor markets remained constrained, the metro posted solid employment growth. Texas Service Sector Activity Accelerates https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2018/1807 Tue, 31 Jul 2018 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector activity accelerated in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2018/hou1808 Tue, 31 Jul 2018 14:15:00 EST The professional services sector continues to lead a broad-based acceleration in the Houston economy this year amid strong growth in the local labor force. Construction employment is surging as the existing-home market remains tight. Hispanics in the U.S. Labor Market: A Tale of Three Generations https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2018/wp1809 Tue, 31 Jul 2018 11:33:00 EST While relatively low education levels do not appear to hamper Hispanic immigrants’ employment, they play a key role in explaining low levels of employment among Hispanic immigrants’ descendants. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2018/ep1807 Fri, 27 Jul 2018 09:49:00 EST The El Paso economy continues to expand as the labor market continues to add jobs and home sales reach record levels. Trade through the El Paso port of entry rose, while maquiladora employment remained steady. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2018/sa1807 Thu, 26 Jul 2018 10:29:00 EST Growth in the San Antonio economy remained mild in June. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand, though below its long-term average, as the unemployment rate held at a low level and job growth remained tepid. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2018/tei1807 Tue, 24 Jul 2018 09:29:00 EST The Texas economy continued to expand at a solid pace in June. There were strong job gains, and unemployment remained low. The Dallas Fed’s Texas Business Outlook Surveys indicated continued growth in the state’s manufacturing and service-providing sectors. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2018/dfw1807 Tue, 24 Jul 2018 17:51:00 EST The Dallas–Fort Worth economy continues to expand. The June jobs report indicated employment growth moderated, with DFW adding jobs at the slowest pace so far this year. Next Generation Sector Partnerships: A Series of Case Studies https://www.dallasfed.org:443/cd/EconDev/workforce/nextgen Mon, 23 Jul 2018 17:47:00 EST A look at partnerships that advance workforce and economic competitiveness in five separate regions. Valuation Risk Revalued https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2018/wp1808 Fri, 20 Jul 2018 15:27:00 EST The recent asset pricing literature finds valuation risk is an important determinant of key asset pricing moments. After correcting the preference specification, we find long-run risk, rather than valuation risk, plays the biggest role in explaining asset prices. Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2018/wp1807 Tue, 17 Jul 2018 12:16:00 EST This paper describes the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey (TSSOS) and Texas Retail Outlook Survey (TROS)’s methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TSSOS and TROS indexes with regard to Texas employment growth. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2018/aus1807 Thu, 05 Jul 2018 14:21:00 EST Austin economic activity held steady in May. The Austin Business-Cycle Index continued to grow near trend. Job growth accelerated after softening in March and April, while the unemployment rate fell to its lowest rate since the beginning of the year. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2018/en1807 Thu, 05 Jul 2018 15:56:00 EST Drilling activity continues to expand in Texas as prices continue to be favorable. OPEC recently indicated it would increase production, but falling inventories, unplanned outages and limited spare OPEC capacity left the price reaction mixed. Agricultural Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/agsurvey/2018/ag1802 Mon, 02 Jul 2018 12:00:00 EST Bankers responding to the second-quarter survey noted continuing drought conditions across many regions of the Eleventh District. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, May 2018 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2018/pce1805 Fri, 29 Jun 2018 15:18:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 2.6 percent at an annualized rate in May, following a 2.9 percent annualized increase a month earlier. Mexico’s First-Quarter Output Revised Up, but Growth Stalls in April https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2018/1804 Fri, 29 Jun 2018 15:28:00 EST Mexico’s economy grew slightly faster in first quarter 2018 than previously estimated. First-quarter gross domestic product was revised to 4.6 percent, up from the prior estimate of 4.5 percent. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2018/ep1806 Thu, 28 Jun 2018 14:57:00 EST The El Paso economy continues to expand. The labor market keeps growing, and homes sales reached near-record levels in May. Trade through the El Paso Port of Entry rose, while maquiladora employment remained steady. Dallas Fed Energy Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/des/2018/1802 Wed, 27 Jun 2018 09:30:00 EST Energy sector activity expanded strongly in second quarter 2018, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey. Texas Service Sector Activity Continues to Expand https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2018/1806 Tue, 26 Jun 2018 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector activity continued to increase in June, although at a slightly slower pace than last month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2018/hou1807 Mon, 25 Jun 2018 16:40:00 EST Professional services and manufacturing are leading growth in the Houston economy. The energy sector is expanding at an accelerated pace, leading to strong export growth. Lending at local banks has been outpacing the state and the nation. Healthy gains in the Houston Leading Index and the Houston Business-Cycle Index suggest a continued positive outlook. Texas Banking Conditions Improve, but Risks and Uncertainty Remain https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2018/swe1802d Mon, 25 Jun 2018 12:04:00 EST Banks in the Eleventh District, benefiting from a rebounding energy sector and strong regional and national economies, are poised to do well through the remainder of 2018. FEMA to Play Long-Term Role in Recovery from Harvey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2018/swe1802e Mon, 25 Jun 2018 12:03:00 EST Federal disaster assistance following Hurricane Harvey has emphasized immediate recovery costs but will likely shift its focus to infrastructure improvements. Texas Firms Struggling to Fill Job Openings https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2018/swe1802c Mon, 25 Jun 2018 10:00:00 EST David Howard and Dan Howard, president and vice president of Staff Force Personnel Services in Katy, Texas, offer insight into the state’s labor market. President's Perspective https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2018/swe1802a Mon, 25 Jun 2018 10:00:00 EST Business models are<br /> being supplanted by<br /> new models, often<br /> technology-enabled,<br /> to more efficiently sell<br /> or distribute goods<br /> and services. Go Figure—Texas Taps into Craft Brewing After Law Change https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2018/swe1802g Mon, 25 Jun 2018 10:00:00 EST Growth in Texas brewery jobs has picked up significantly since the law change in 2013. Craft brewing has attracted new investment, and the employment growth rate accelerated in recent years. Spotlight: Border Cities Miss Texas Economic Upturn https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/swe/2018/swe1802f Mon, 25 Jun 2018 18:00:00 EST Employment growth along the Texas–Mexico border slowed in 2017, as the region dealt with the cross-currents of the strong U.S. economic expansion and a pickup in Texas activity, along with a slowing Mexican economy and weaker peso. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2018/sa1806 Thu, 21 Jun 2018 14:05:00 EST Growth in the San Antonio economy held steady in May. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index continued to expand, though below its long-term average, as the unemployment rate fell but job growth remained tepid. A Perspective on Oil https://www.dallasfed.org:443/news/speeches/kaplan/2018/rsk180619 Tue, 19 Jun 2018 09:00:00 EST This essay lays out the key factors the Dallas Fed closely tracks in analyzing the global energy markets and in considering the impact of oil prices on economic conditions in the U.S. U.S. Economic Picture Unchanged in Second Quarter 2018 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/us/2018/1804 Tue, 19 Jun 2018 16:02:00 EST Economic data released since March point to continued growth in economic activity due to robust consumer spending, strong employment growth and diminishing labor market slack. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2018/dfw1806 Tue, 19 Jun 2018 15:46:00 EST The Dallas-Fort Worth economy continued to expand at a torrid pace. The May jobs report showed the metro area growing at a 3.7 percent annualized rate in the first five months of the year, adding a total of 55,500 net new jobs. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2018/tei1806 Mon, 18 Jun 2018 17:45:00 EST The Texas economy continued to expand at a solid pace in May. The state posted strong job gains, and unemployment remained low. The headline indexes of the Dallas Fed's Texas Business Outlook Surveys indicated accelerating growth. Texas Economy Continues to Advance https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/reg/2018/1804 Mon, 18 Jun 2018 17:51:00 EST The Texas economy is expanding at a solid pace. Employment has grown at a 3.6 percent annualized rate through May, driven by job gains in the goods-producing sector. Unemployment remains near its historical low, and labor markets are tight. Smaller Banks Less Able to Withstand Flattening Yield Curve https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/eclett/2018/el1808 Mon, 18 Jun 2018 18:09:00 EST For the overall U.S. banking system, the effect on profitability of yield-curve flattening—the lowering of the difference between the yields of short- and long-term debt—lasts about a year and is relatively small. Downside Risks Imperil Prospective Gains from Globalization https://www.dallasfed.org:443/institute/update/2018/int1804 Fri, 15 Jun 2018 10:23:00 EST Downside risks to the global economy could diminish its recent steady performance. Threats include challenges to existing trade arrangements, instability in the euro area and possible global blow-back from Federal Reserve benchmark rate increases. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2018/aus1806 Fri, 08 Jun 2018 13:47:00 EST Austin economic activity held steady in April. The Austin Business-Cycle Index continued to grow well above trend. Although job growth softened in April, the unemployment rate remained low. Wages continued to rise, aiding home affordability. The Impact of the Dodd-Frank Act on Small Business https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2018/wp1806 Thu, 07 Jun 2018 19:54:00 EST We find that the Dodd-Frank Act has impeded small-business lending controlling for cyclical effects and bank size, consistent with relative changes in bank credit standards. Also, the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, and to a lesser extent the Dodd-Frank Act, appear to have restrained business formation. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2018/en1806 Fri, 01 Jun 2018 15:01:00 EST The higher price environment is driving production and employment growth in the oil and gas industry. Higher prices for crude are also being passed onto consumer fuel prices even as exports remain elevated. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, April 2018 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2018/pce1804 Thu, 31 May 2018 15:15:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index rose 2.7 percent at an annualized rate in April, following a negligible increase a month earlier. Texas Service Sector Activity Expands at an Accelerated Pace https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2018/1805 Wed, 30 May 2018 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector activity accelerated sharply in May, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2018/hou1806 Tue, 29 May 2018 16:24:00 EST Overall, the outlook for Houston remains positive. Recent job growth has been very strong and broad based, and the region is likely to receive a tailwind from continued strength in the U.S. and Texas economies. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2018/sa1805 Fri, 25 May 2018 10:46:00 EST Growth in the San Antonio economy picked up in April. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index accelerated to just slightly below its long-term pace as jobs increased and the unemployment rate fell. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2018/ep1805 Thu, 24 May 2018 11:42:00 EST Although employment contracted in April, the El Paso economy continues to expand. Trade through the El Paso Port of Entry inched down, while maquiladora employment remained steady. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2018/dfw1805 Tue, 22 May 2018 10:05:00 EST Dallas–Fort Worth economic activity accelerated in April, with the Dallas and Fort Worth business-cycle indexes posting above-trend growth and payroll employment climbing in both metros. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2018/tei1805 Mon, 21 May 2018 15:05:00 EST The Texas economy continued to post strong growth in April, with total nonfarm employment increasing from the previous month. Activity in the energy sector expanded further, with both the rig count and oil prices increasing. Southern New Mexico Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/snm/2018/snm1802 Thu, 17 May 2018 17:05:00 EST New Mexico’s labor market expanded in the first quarter, while employment levels in Las Cruces inched down. Trade through the port is rising, and the rig count is well above year-ago levels. Mexico Economy Expands at a Strong Pace in First Quarter https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/mex/2018/1803 Tue, 15 May 2018 09:40:00 EST Mexico’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized 4.5 percent pace in first quarter 2018—its highest quarterly growth since mid-2016. Texas Economic Growth Continues at Healthy Pace https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/reg/2018/1803 Thu, 10 May 2018 16:03:00 EST The Texas economy remains in a broad-based expansion. Job growth in the first quarter was a robust 3.5 percent, maintaining the solid gains seen in fourth quarter 2017. The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States: Reply to Jentsch and Lunsford https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2018/wp1805 Wed, 09 May 2018 12:40:00 EST When focusing on the relevant impulse responses, the evidence for economic and statistically significant macroeconomic effects of tax changes in Mertens and Ravn (2013) remains present for a range of asymptotically valid inference methods. Slower Growth in First Quarter Appears Temporary https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/update/us/2018/1803 Tue, 08 May 2018 12:04:00 EST The U.S. economy entered 2018 with strong momentum, but it slowed in the first quarter. The Accuracy of Linear and Nonlinear Estimation in the Presence of the Zero Lower Bound https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2018/wp1804 Mon, 07 May 2018 17:08:00 EST This paper evaluates the accuracy of linear and nonlinear estimation methods for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. Consumers Respond More to Negative News than Positive Info https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/eclett/2018/el1807 Fri, 04 May 2018 18:44:00 EST Consumers, forced to navigate a constant stream of economic information, are often challenged to sort through details and respond to new material. Global Economic Outlook Remains Strong https://www.dallasfed.org:443/institute/update/2018/int1803 Fri, 04 May 2018 15:06:00 EST Real world output growth excluding the U.S. came in at 3.4 percent in 2017, and forecasts call for continued strong growth in 2018 and 2019. Behind the Numbers: PCE Inflation Update, March 2018 https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/pce/2018/pce1803 Fri, 04 May 2018 14:37:00 EST The headline, or all-items, PCE price index was essentially unchanged in March, weighed down by declines in the prices of energy goods and services, particularly gasoline. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2018/en1805 Fri, 04 May 2018 17:08:00 EST Texas oil and gas employment and drilling activity continued to grow in March and April. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude strengthened to its highest monthly average since November 2014. However, pipeline capacity in the Permian may be in short supply over the next year, putting downward pressure on barrels priced in the region and potentially restricting production growth in 2019. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2018/aus1805 Thu, 03 May 2018 12:59:00 EST Austin economic activity accelerated in March. The Austin Business-Cycle Index grew at its fastest pace since late 2015, bolstered by strong employment growth over the first quarter of this year. Texas Service Sector Activity Continues to Expand but at Slower Pace https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/tssos/2018/1804 Tue, 01 May 2018 09:30:00 EST Texas service sector activity continued to increase in April, albeit at a slower pace than last month, according to business executives responding to the Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2018/hou1805 Mon, 30 Apr 2018 15:24:00 EST Overall, the outlook for Houston remains positive. Coincident and leading indicators continue to suggest healthy growth in activity in the region. Exports are expanding, while real estate and construction data are more mixed. San Antonio Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/sa/2018/sa1804 Fri, 27 Apr 2018 08:00:00 EST Growth in the San Antonio economy slowed in March. The San Antonio Business-Cycle Index decelerated below its long-term pace, primarily due to a decline in jobs and a slight increase in the unemployment rate. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2018/ep1804 Wed, 25 Apr 2018 14:37:00 EST Economic activity in El Paso remains solid. Ciudad Juárez maquiladora employment is steady, while employment in El Paso continues to expand. Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/dfw/2018/dfw1804 Tue, 24 Apr 2018 14:25:00 EST Dallas-Fort Worth economic growth continued to be healthy in March. Payroll employment in the first quarter expanded at its fastest rate in a year and a half. Texas Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/tei/2018/tei1804 Mon, 23 Apr 2018 14:33:00 EST The Texas economy continued to grow at a healthy pace in March. The Texas Business-Cycle Index accelerated for the 24th month in a row, as employment expanded and the unemployment rate held steady at a low level. The Near Term Growth Impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/papers/2018/wp1803 Wed, 18 Apr 2018 16:19:00 EST This paper uses existing empirical estimates of the macroeconomic effects of tax changes to project the near term impact of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on US GDP growth. Energy Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/energy/indicators/2018/en1804 Wed, 18 Apr 2018 14:32:00 EST The Texas oil and gas sector remained strong through March. Prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose slightly in March, staying close to $63 per barrel. Oil production in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford rose again. Texas oil and gas employment spiked up in February and is at its highest level since late 2015. U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) exports are at an all-time high and projected to increase further this year. Taking the Long View: Creating a Better Future for Our Children and Grandchildren https://www.dallasfed.org:443/news/speeches/kaplan/2018/rsk180416 Mon, 16 Apr 2018 09:00:00 EST Short-term cyclical developments are only part of the story in understanding the U.S. and global economies. Declining U.S. Labor Force Participation Rates Stand Out https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/eclett/2018/el1806 Thu, 12 Apr 2018 17:05:00 EST Male and female prime-age labor force participation rates have declined in the U.S. at a faster rate than in most developed countries over the past 20 years, even among people with a college degree. Austin Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/aus/2018/aus1804 Thu, 05 Apr 2018 13:34:00 EST Austin economic activity accelerated in February. The Austin Business-Cycle Index grew at its fastest pace since late 2015, bolstered by strong employment growth over the first two months of this year. Steeling the U.S. Economy for the Impacts of Tariffs https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/eclett/2018/el1805 Wed, 04 Apr 2018 11:10:00 EST Proposed steel and aluminum tariffs would likely trim a quarter percent from the U.S. gross domestic product over the long run. El Paso Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/ep/2018/ep1803 Tue, 03 Apr 2018 09:01:00 EST Economic activity in El Paso remains solid. Ciudad Juárez maquiladora employment is steady, while trade through the Port picked up, led by a strong gain in exports. Houston Economic Indicators https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/indicators/hou/2018/hou1804 Tue, 03 Apr 2018 12:00:00 EST The outlook for Houston remains positive. Houston has had a robust start to 2018 job growth, broad measures of output have expanded, energy-related activity and related imports have continued to improve, and oil prices remain in a healthy range for the energy industry. Agricultural Survey https://www.dallasfed.org:443/research/surveys/agsurvey/2018/ag1801 Mon, 02 Apr 2018 17:14:00 EST Bankers responding to the first-quarter survey noted conditions remained dry across a number of regions.