U.S. 30-year mortgage predominance doesn’t seem to delay impact of Fed rate hikes
After comparing economic data of the U.S. and other major advanced economies, we find tentative evidence that the slow adjustment of the outstanding mortgage rate in the U.S. has not played an important role in delaying the intended effects of the monetary tightening.
January 16, 2024
Strength in consumer spending does not necessarily imply low probability of recession
Consumption was not a main driver of GDP declines in previous recessions, and a recession is not necessarily preceded by declines in consumer spending.
January 02, 2024
Bankers, regulators absorb lessons of Silicon Valley Bank failure as new tests emerge
Ben Munyan, director of supervisory policy in the Banking Supervision Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, discusses the challenges the banking industry faces in an era of rapidly rising interest rates and how Texas institutions have fared.
September 29, 2023
New office buildings rise on Texas skyline despite difficult market
Despite persistent remote work arrangements and high vacancies in existing office buildings, construction cranes erecting new office space continue to dot Texas skylines.
September 05, 2023
Location, location, location: Mortgage rate impact varies by metro
The role of individual housing markets and their sensitivity to mortgage rate changes play an important part in understanding the impact of higher rates.
August 15, 2023
Rent inflation remains on track to slow over the coming year
The rental rate for new leases increased about 15 percent in 2021, despite a modest increase in the most commonly watched U.S. inflation gauges. A forecast of rent inflation currently anticipates it slowing to below 6 percent by the end of first quarter 2024.
June 20, 2023
Globalization Institute Working Paper
On the Nexus of Monetary Policy and Financial Stability: Novel Asset Market Monitoring Tools for Building Economic Resilience and Mitigating Financial Risks
This paper argues that asset pricing bubbles are an important source of financial instabilities.
June 02, 2023
Threat of global housing slide looms amid rising rates
While house-price growth has recently begun to moderate—or, in some countries, to decline—the risk of a deep global housing slide persists.
February 28, 2023
Research Department Working Papers
Financial Technology and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: The Role of Social Networks
This paper establishes that social networks play a key role in consumers’ adoption of FinTech lending, which amplifies the effects of a monetary stimulus.
February 14, 2023
Existing low-rate mortgages blunt impact of recent rate surge
The prevalence of low-rate mortgages suggests that future policy rate cuts may not as effectively stimulate household spending through refinancing as during past recessions.
December 27, 2022