The Incidence of Sanctions Against U.S. Employers of Illegal Aliens
John K. Hill and James E. Pearce
Published as: Hill, John K. and James E. Pearce (1990), "The Incidence of Sanctions Against U.S. Employers of Illegal Aliens," Journal of Political Economy 98 (1): 28-44.
Abstract: This article assesses the significance of sanctions against employers of illegal aliens for resource allocation and income distribution in the United States. Data from the 1980 Census of Population are used to identify the industries likely to be monitored most closely by the immigration authorities. A general equilibrium incidence analysis then is carried out using alternative assumptions about the overall level of enforcement. Estimates are made of the effects sanctions will have on the real wages of legal U.S. workers.


Evidence on the Two Monetary Base Measures and Economic Activity
Joseph H. Haslag and Scott E. Hein
Published as: Haslag, Joseph H. and Scott E. Hein (1990), "Economic Activity and Two Monetary Base Measures," Review of Economics and Statistics 72 (4): 664-671.
Abstract: Both the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and the Board of Governors maintain separate monetary base series. Because of differing adjustment procedures to account for changes in reserve requirements, these series may not be used interchangeably. Using non-nested testing procedures, the two measures are compared in terms of their ability to explain quarterly growth rates of nominal GNP. The evidence presented in this paper indeed rejects the notion that one can interchange these two measures. Rather, our findings suggest that the St. Louis base measure is superior in explaining nominal GNP growth.


The Contribution of Nonhomothetic Preferences to Trade
Linda Hunter
Published as: Hunter, Linda (1991), "The Contribution of Nonhomothetic Preferences to Trade," Journal of International Economics 30 (3-4): 345-358.
Abstract: This paper estimates the economic significance of preference nonhomotheticity in international trade. Tastes are assumed to be identical, but budget shares depend on per capita income. A linear expenditure system is estimated for 34 countries over 11 commodity aggregates. A counterfactual exercise is conducted to estimate the volume of trade caused by deviations from homotheticity. The results indicate that nonhomothetic preferences may account for as much as one-quarter of interindustry trade flows.


The Development and Uses of Regional Indexes of Leading Economic Indicators
Keith R. Phillips
Published as: Phillips, Keith R. (1994), "Regional Indexes of Leading Economic Indicators," in Forecasting and Financial Economic Cycles, eds. Michael P. Niemira and Philip A. Klein (New York: Wiley), 347-361.


Unionization and Unemployment Rates: A Re-examination of Olson's Labor Cartelization Hypothesis
William C. Gruben and Keith R. Phillips


Tax Policy and Texas Economic Development
Stephen P. A. Brown


Investment and the Nominal Interest Rate: the Variable Velocity Case
Evan F. Koenig
Published as: Koenig, Evan F. (1989), "Investment and the Nominal Interest Rate: the Variable Velocity Case," Economic Inquiry 27 (2): 325-344.
Abstract: Models treating money either as a consumer good or as a producer good are encompassed by a model in which both households and firms use money as a buffer between receipts and expenditures. A rise in nominal interest rates increases resources devoted to intermediation, while discouraging purchases financed from accumulated cash. If investment is financed from contemporaneous earnings, there is a tendency to substitute out of consumption and into investment when interest rates are high. Greater resources devoted to intermediation generate a negative wealth effect. The net impact on investment is ambiguous.


Augmented Information in a theory of Ambiguity. Credibility and Inflation
Nathan Balke and Joseph H. Haslag
Abstract: The paper exanines the phenomenon of "Fed Watching" within the context of a macroecononic policy game. Unlike previous policy game models, individuals are allowed to acquire information about monetary growth in addition to the historical data. Agent's decisions are based on the opportunity costs of resources expended to augment their information set. Incorporated into the Cuikerman and Meltzer model of asymmetric information, the public's optimizing behavior makes the agent's information set a strategic variable. In this setting, it is shown that individuals strategic behavior can influence the monetary authority's strategy with respect to monetary growth control. Further, the policymaker strategically chooses the control variance of money growth to influence agent's information-seeking behavior.


Theoretical Macroeconomic Modelling and Qualitative Specifications of the Bond Market
William R. Russell and Joseph H. Haslag


Exchange and Interest Rate Management and the International Transmission of Disturbances
W. Michael Cox and Douglas McTaggart


Estimating the Impact of Monetary Policy on Short-Term Interest Rates in a Rational Expectations—Efficient Markets Model: Further Evidence
Kenneth J. Robinson and Eugenie D. Short