Economists

Lutz Kilian

Senior Economic Policy Advisor
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

Lutz Kilian

Lutz Kilian has been a senior economic policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas since 2019.

He received his MA in development banking from the American University in 1988 and his PhD in economics from the University of Pennsylvania in 1996.

Prior to his PhD, he worked for the research department of the Inter-American Development Bank in Washington, D.C. He joined the faculty of the University of Michigan in 1996, where he was tenured in 2002 and promoted to professor of economics in 2008. During 2001–03 he served as the research adviser to the European Central Bank in Frankfurt am Main, Germany.

Publications

“The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models,” with X. Zhou, Advances in Econometrics, vol. 45B, April 2023, pp. 65-95.
“Container Trade and the U.S. Recovery,” with N. Nomikos and X. Zhou, International Journal of Central Banking, March 2023, forthcoming.
“A Quantitative Model of the Oil Tanker Market in the Arabian Gulf,” with N. Nomikos and X. Zhou, Energy Journal, vol. 44, no. 5, 2023, pp. 75-93.
“Joint Bayesian Inference about Impulse Responses in VAR Models,” with A. Inoue, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 231, no. 2, December 2022, pp. 457-476. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.05.010.
“Comment on Giacomini, Kitagawa and Read's 'Narrative Restrictions and Proxies',” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 40, no. 4, October 2022, pp. 1429-1433. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2022.2102022.
“The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on U.S. Inflation and Inflation Expectations in 2020-23,” with X. Zhou, Energy Economics, vol. 113, September 2022, 106228. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106228.
“Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates,” with X. Zhou, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 126, September 2022, 102679. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2022.102679.
“Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations,” with X. Zhou, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 37, no. 5, August 2022, pp. 867-881. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2911.
“The Propagation of Regional Shocks in Housing Markets: Evidence from Oil Price Shocks in Canada,” with X. Zhou, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 54, no. 4, June 2022, pp. 953-987. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12847.
“Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling,” Energy Economics, vol. 110, June 2022, 105973. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105973.
“Understanding the Estimation of Oil Demand and Oil Supply Elasticities,” Energy Economics, vol. 107, March 2022, 105844. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2022.105844.
“Impulse Response Analysis in Structural Dynamic Models with Nonlinear Regressors,” with S. Goncalves, A. Herrera and E. Pesavento, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 225, no. 1, November 2021, pp. 107-130. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.06.009.
“Does Drawing Down the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve Help Stabilize Oil Prices?” with X. Zhou, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2798.
“The Uniform Validity of Impulse Response Inference in Autoregressions,” with A. Inoue, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 215, no. 2, April 2020, pp. 450-472. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.10.001.
“Measuring Global Real Economic Activity: Do Recent Critiques Hold Up to Scrutiny?” Economics Letters, vol. 178, May 2019, pp. 106-110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2019.03.001.
“Corrigendum to ‘Inference on Impulse Response Functions in Structural VAR Models’ [J. Econometrics 177 (2013), 1-13],” with A. Inoue, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 209, no. 1, March 2019, pp. 139-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2017.08.020.
“Modeling Fluctuations in the Global Demand for Commodities,” with X. Zhou, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 88, November 2018, pp. 54-78. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2018.07.001.
“Is the Discretionary Income Effect of Oil Price Shocks a Hoax?” with C. Baumeister and X. Zhou, Energy Journal, vol. 39, no. S12, 2018, pp. 117-137. https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.39.SI2.cbau.
“Are Product Spreads Useful for Forecasting Oil Prices? An Empirical Evaluation of the Verleger Hypothesis,” with C. Baumeister and X. Zhou, Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol. 22, no. 3, April 2018, pp. 562-580. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516000237.
“Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis,” with H. Lütkepohl, Cambridge University Press, 2017. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108164818.
“The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing US Recessions,” with R. J. Vigfusson, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, vol. 49, no. 8, December 2017, pp. 1747-1776. https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12430.
“The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers,” Energy Journal, vol. 38, no. 6, November 2017, pp. 137-160. https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.38.6.1kil.
“How the Tight Oil Boom Has Changed Oil and Gasoline Markets,” Papeles de Energia, no. 3, June 2017, pp. 79-102.
“Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump,” with C. Baumeister and T. K. Lee, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 32, no. 2, March 2017, pp. 275-295. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2510.
“Anticipation, Tax Avoidance, and the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand,” with J. Coglianese, L. W. Davis, and J. H. Stock, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 32, no. 1, January-February 2017, pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2500.
“Impulse Response Matching Estimators for DSGE Models,” with P. Guerron-Quintana and A. Inoue, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 196, no. 1, January 2017, pp. 144-155. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2016.09.009.
“Lower Oil Prices and the US Economy: Is This Time Different?” with C. Baumeister, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Fall 2016, pp. 287-357.
“Joint Confidence Sets for Structural Impulse Responses,” with A. Inoue, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 192, no. 2, June 2016, pp. 421-432. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2016.02.008.
“The Impact of the Shale Oil Revolution on US Oil and Gasoline Prices,” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, vol. 10, no. 2, Summer 2016, pp. 185-205. https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rew001.
“Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014,” with C. Baumeister, Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 3, no. 1, March 2016, pp. 131-158. https://doi.org/10.1086/684160.
“Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us,” with C. Baumeister, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 30, no. 1, Winter 2016, pp. 139-160. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.30.1.139.
“Forecasting the Real Price of Oil in a Changing World: A Forecast Combination Approach,” with C. Baumeister, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 33, no. 3, July 2015, pp. 338-351. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2014.949342.
“Do High-Frequency Financial Data Help Forecast Oil Prices? The MIDAS Touch at Work,” with C. Baumeister and P. Guerin, International Journal of Forecasting, vol. 31, no. 2, April-June 2015, pp. 238-252. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.06.005.
“Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests - Comment,” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 33, no. 1, January 2015, pp. 13-17. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2014.969430.
“Energy Price Shocks,” The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2015, pp. 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-95121-5_3008-1.
“Are There Gains from Pooling Real-Time Oil Price Forecasts?” with C. Baumeister and T. K. Lee, Energy Economics, vol. 46, December 2014, pp. S33-S43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.08.008.
“Oil Price Shocks: Causes and Consequences,” Annual Review of Resource Economics, Vol 6, vol. 6, 2014, pp. 133-154. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-083013-114701.
“Do Oil Price Increases Cause Higher Food Prices?” with C. Baumeister, Economic Policy, vol. 29, no. 80, October 2014, pp. 691-747. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0327.12039.
“What Central Bankers Need to Know About Forecasting Oil Prices,” with C. Baumeister, International Economic Review, vol. 55, no. 3, August 2014, pp. 869-889. https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12074.
“Real-Time Analysis of Oil Price Risks Using Forecast Scenarios,” with C. Baumeister, IMF Economic Review, vol. 62, no. 1, 2014, pp. 119-145. https://doi.org/10.1057/imfer.2014.1.
“The Role of Inventories and Speculative Trading in the Global Market for Crude Oil,” with D. P. Murphy, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 29, no. 3, April 2014, pp. 454-478. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.2322.
“Quantifying the Speculative Component in the Real Price of Oil: The Role of Global Oil Inventories,” with T. K. Lee, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 42, April 2014, pp. 71-87. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jimonfin.2013.08.005.
“Inference on Impulse Response Functions in Structural VAR Models,” with A. Inoue, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 177, no. 1, November 2013, pp. 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2013.02.009.
“Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shock of 2003-2008?” with B. Hicks, Journal of Forecasting, vol. 32, no. 5, August 2013, pp. 385-394. https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2243.
“Forecasting the Price of Oil,” with R. Alquist and R. J. Vigfusson, Handbook of Economic Forecasting, vol. 2, 2013, pp. 427-507. https://doi.org/10.1016/b978-0-444-53683-9.00008-6.
“Structural Vector Autoregressions,” Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, 2013, pp. 515-554. https://doi.org/10.4337/9780857931023.
“Frequentist Inference in Weakly Identified Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models,” with P. Guerron-Quintana and A. Inoue, Quantitative Economics, vol. 4, no. 2, July 2013, pp. 197-229. https://doi.org/10.3982/qe306.
“The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?” with B. Fattouh and L. Mahadeva, Energy Journal, vol. 34, no. 3, 2013, pp. 7-33. https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.34.3.2.
“Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries,” with R. J. Vigfusson, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 31, no. 1, January 2013, pp. 78-93. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2012.740436.
“Monetary Policy Responses to Oil Price Fluctuations,” with M. Bodenstein and L. Guerrieri, Imf Economic Review, vol. 60, no. 4, 2012, pp. 470-504. https://doi.org/10.1057/imfer.2012.19.
“Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding the Dynamics of Oil Market VAR Models,” with D. P. Murphy, Journal of the European Economic Association, vol. 10, no. 5, October 2012, pp. 1166-1188. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1542-4774.2012.01080.x.
“Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil,” with C. Baumeister, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 30, no. 2, April 2012, pp. 326-336. https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2011.648859.
“Nonlinearities in the Oil Price-Output Relationship,” with R. J. Vigfusson, Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol. 15, November 2011, pp. 337-363. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100511000186.
“Estimating the Effect of a Gasoline Tax on Carbon Emissions,” with L. W. Davis, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 26, no. 7, November-December 2011, pp. 1187-1214. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.1156.
“Are the Responses of the US Economy Asymmetric in Energy Price Increases and Decreases?” with R. J. Vigfusson, Quantitative Economics, vol. 2, no. 3, November 2011, pp. 419-453. https://doi.org/10.3982/qe99.
“How Reliable Are Local Projection Estimators of Impulse Responses?” with Y. J. Kim, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 93, no. 4, November 2011, pp. 1460-1466. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00143.
“Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks?” with L. T. Lewis, Economic Journal, vol. 121, no. 555, September 2011, pp. 1047-1072. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2011.02437.x.
“Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices,” with C. Vega, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 93, no. 2, May 2011, pp. 660-671. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00086.
“The Allocative Cost of Price Ceilings in the US Residential Market for Natural Gas,” with L. W. Davis, Journal of Political Economy, vol. 119, no. 2, April 2011, pp. 212-241. https://doi.org/10.1086/660124.
“What Do We Learn From the Price of Crude Oil Futures?” with R. Alquist, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 25, no. 4, June-July 2010, pp. 539-573. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.1159.
“Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation,” Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, May 2010, pp. 60-84.
“Explaining Fluctuations in Gasoline Prices: A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the US Retail Gasoline Market,” Energy Journal, vol. 31, no. 2, 2010, pp. 87-112. https://doi.org/10.5547/issn0195-6574-ej-vol31-no2-4.
“The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market,” with C. Park, International Economic Review, vol. 50, no. 4, November 2009, pp. 1267-1287. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2009.00568.x.
“Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? Household Expectations of Inflation Based on Micro Consumption Data,” with A. Inoue and F. B. Kiraz, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, vol. 41, no. 7, October 2009, pp. 1331-1363. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2009.00259.x.
“How Sensitive Are Consumer Expenditures to Retail Energy Prices?” with P. Edelstein, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 56, no. 6, September 2009, pp. 766-779. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2009.06.001.
“Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08 - Comment,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2009, pp. 267-278.
“Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market,” American Economic Review, vol. 99, no. 3, June 2009, pp. 1053-1069. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.3.1053.
“Oil Shocks and External Balances,” with A. Rebucci and N. Spatafora, Journal of International Economics, vol. 77, no. 2, April 2009, pp. 181-194. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2009.01.001.
“Time Series Analysis,” with F. X. Diebold and M. Nerlove, The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2008. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-58802-2_1703.
“The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks,” Journal of Economic Literature, vol. 46, no. 4, December 2008, pp. 871-909. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.46.4.871.
“The Central Banker as a Risk Manager: Estimating the Federal Reserve's Preferences Under Greenspan,” with S. Manganelli, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, vol. 40, no. 6, September 2008, pp. 1103-1129. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1538-4616.2008.00150.x.
“How Useful is Bagging in Forecasting Economic Time Series? A Case Study of US Consumer Price Inflation,” with A. Inoue, Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 103, no. 482, June 2008, pp. 511-522. https://doi.org/10.1198/016214507000000473.
“Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the US Economy?” Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 90, no. 2, May 2008, pp. 216-240. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.90.2.216.
“A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries,” Journal of the European Economic Association, vol. 6, no. 1, March 2008, pp. 78-121. https://doi.org/10.1162/jeea.2008.6.1.78.
“Asymptotic and Bootstrap Inference for AR(infinity) Processes with Conditional Heteroskedasticity,” with S. Goncalves, Econometric Reviews, vol. 26, no. 6, 2007, pp. 609-641. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474930701624462.
“The Response of Business Fixed Investment to Changes in Energy Prices: A Test of Some Hypotheses About the Transmission of Energy Price Shocks,” with P. Edelstein, B E Journal of Macroeconomics, vol. 7, no. 1, 2007. https://doi.org/10.2202/1935-1690.1607.
“On the Fit of New Keynesian Models - Comment,” Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 25, no. 2, April 2007, pp. 156-159. https://doi.org/10.1198/073500107000000025.
“Quantifying the Risk of Deflation,” with S. Manganelli, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, vol. 39, no. 43864, March-April 2007, pp. 561-590. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.0022-2879.2007.00036.x.
“New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis,” Econometric Theory, vol. 22, no. 5, October 2006, pp. 961-967. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0266466606000442.
“On the Selection of Forecasting Models,” with A. Inoue, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 130, no. 2, February 2006, pp. 273-306. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2005.03.003.
“A Practitioner's Guide to Lag Order Selection for VAR Impulse Response Analysis,” with V. Ivanov, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, vol. 9, no. 1, March 2005. https://doi.org/10.2202/1558-3708.1219.
“Oil and the Macroeconomy Since the 1970s,” with R. B. Barsky, Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 18, no. 4, Fall 2004, pp. 115-134. https://doi.org/10.1257/0895330042632708.
“In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?” with I. Atsushi, Econometric Reviews, vol. 23, no. 4, November 2004, pp. 371-402. https://doi.org/10.1081/ETC-200040785.
“Bootstrapping Autoregressions with Conditional Heteroskedasticity of Unknown Form,” with S. Goncalves, Journal of Econometrics, vol. 123, no. 1, November 2004, pp. 89-120. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2003.10.030.
“The Continuity of the Limit Distribution in the Parameter of Interest is Not Essential for the Validity of the Bootstrap,” with A. Inoue, Econometric Theory, vol. 19, no. 6, December 2003, pp. 944-961. https://doi.org/10.1017/s026646660319603x.
“Why Is It So Difficult to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Rates?” with M. P. Taylor, Journal of International Economics, vol. 60, no. 1, May 2003, pp. 85-107. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0022-1996(02)00060-0.
“Data-Driven Nonparametric Spectral Density Estimators for Economic Time Series: A Monte Carlo Study,” with I. Birgean, Econometric Reviews, vol. 21, no. 4, November 2002, pp. 449-476. https://doi.org/10.1081/ETC-120015386.
“Unit Roots, Trend Breaks, and Transitory Dynamics: A Macroeconomic Perspective,” with L. E. Ohanian, Macroeconomic Dynamics, vol. 6, no. 5, November 2002, pp. 614-632. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1365100501010094.
“Do We Really Know That Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative,” with R. B. Barsky, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, vol. 16, 2002, pp. 137-183. https://doi/10.1086/654439.
“Bootstrapping Smooth Functions of Slope Parameters and Innovation Variances in VAR(infinity) Models,” with A. Inoue, International Economic Review, vol. 43, no. 2, May 2002, pp. 309-331. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-2354.t01-1-00016.
“Quantifying the Uncertainty About the Half-Life of Deviations from PPP,” with T. Zha, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 17, no. 2, March-April 2002, pp. 107-125. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.621.
“Bootstrapping Autoregressive Processes with Possible Unit Roots,” with A. Inoue, Econometrica, vol. 70, no. 1, January 2002, pp. 377-391. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00281.
“Measuring Predictability: Theory and Macroeconomic Applications,” with F. X. Diebold, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 16, no. 6, November-December 2001, pp. 657-669. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.619.
“Size Distortions of Tests of the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity: Evidence and Implications for the PPP Debate,” with M. Caner, Journal of International Money and Finance, vol. 20, no. 5, October 2001, pp. 639-657. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0261-5606(01)00011-0.
“Impulse Response Analysis in Vector Autoregressions with Unknown Lag Order,” Journal of Forecasting, vol. 20, no. 3, April 2001, pp. 161-179. https://doi.org/10.1002/1099-131x(200104)20:3<161::aid-for770>3.0.co;2-x.
“On the Finite-Sample Accuracy of Nonparametric Resampling Algorithms for Economic Time Series,” with J. Berkowitz and I. Birgean, Advances in Econometrics, Vol 14, vol. 14, 2000, pp. 77-107.
“How Accurate Are Confidence Intervals for Impulse Responses in Large VAR Models?” with P. L. Chang, Economics Letters, vol. 69, no. 3, December 2000, pp. 299-307. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0165-1765(00)00315-3.
“Unit-Root Tests Are Useful for Selecting Forecasting Models,” with F. X. Diebold, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 18, no. 3, July 2000, pp. 265-273. https://doi.org/10.2307/1392260.
“Recent Developments in Bootstrapping Time Series,” with J. Berkowitz, Econometric Reviews, vol. 19, no. 1, February 2000, pp. 1-48. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474930008800457.
“Residual-Based Tests for Normality in Autoregressions: Asymptotic Theory and Simulation Evidence,” with U. Demiroglu, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, vol. 18, no. 1, January 2000, pp. 40-50. https://doi.org/10.2307/1392135.
“Finite-Sample Properties of Percentile and Percentile-t Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Impulse Responses,” Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 81, no. 4, November 1999, pp. 652-660. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465399558517.
“Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?” Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 14, no. 5, September-October 1999, pp. 491-510. https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-1255(199909/10)14:5<491::aid-jae527>3.0.co;2-d.
“Accounting for Lag Order Uncertainty in Autoregressions: The Endogenous Lag Order Bootstrap Algorithm,” Journal of Time Series Analysis, vol. 19, no. 5, September 1998, pp. 531-548. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-9892.00107.
“Small-Sample Confidence Intervals for Impulse Response Functions,” Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 80, no. 2, May 1998, pp. 218-230. https://doi.org/10.1162/003465398557465.
“Confidence Intervals for Impulse Responses Under Departures from Normality,” Econometric Reviews, vol. 17, no. 1, February 1998, pp. 1-29. https://doi.org/10.1080/07474939808800401.
“The Effects of Real and Monetary Shocks in a Business Cycle Model with Some Sticky Prices,” with L. E. Ohanian and A. C. Stockman, Journal of Money Credit and Banking, vol. 27, no. 4, November 1995, pp. 1209-1234. https://doi.org/10.2307/2078045.

Working Papers

“Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand,” with Xiaoqing Zhou, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper no. 2301, January 2023.
“A Broader Perspective on the Inflationary Effects of Energy Price Shocks,” with Xiaoqing Zhou, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper no. 2224, December 2022.
“Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings,” with Michael D. Plante and Alexander W. Richter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper no. 2223, November 2022.
“When Do State-Dependent Local Projections Work?” with Sílvia Gonçalves, Ana María Herrera and Elena Pesavento, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper no. 2205, May 2022.
“The Role of the Prior in Estimating VAR Models with Sign Restrictions,” with Atsushi Inoue, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Working Paper no. 2030, December 2020.

Dallas Fed Publications

“Trade diversion has helped ease the impact of the embargo on Russian oil,” with Kunal Patel, Dallas Fed Economics, February 21, 2023.
“Don’t look to oil companies to lower high retail gasoline prices,” with Garrett Golding, Dallas Fed Economics, May 10, 2022.
“Capacity constraints drive the OPEC+ supply gap,” with Michael D. Plante and Kunal Patel, Dallas Fed Economics, April 19, 2022.
“The Russian oil supply shock of 2022,” with Michael D. Plante, Dallas Fed Economics, March 22, 2022.
“A Ban on U.S. Crude Oil Exports Would Not Lower Gasoline Prices at the Pump,” with Garrett Golding, Dallas Fed Economics, January 4, 2022.
“Limited Impact of Rising Energy Prices on U.S. Inflation, Inflation Expectations in 2020–23,” with Xiaoqing Zhou, Dallas Fed Economics, November 23, 2021.
“Oil Market’s Tightening in February Seemingly Defies Fundamentals,” with Michael D. Plante, Dallas Fed Economics, April 13, 2021.
“What Can Be Learned from the Persistent Electric Power Outages in Texas?” Dallas Fed Economics, April 1, 2021.
“What Is the U.S. Oil Industry Doing About Greenhouse Gas Emissions?” Dallas Fed Economics, December 29, 2020.
“A New View of the Relationship Between Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and Inflation Expectations,” with Xiaoqing Zhou, Dallas Fed Economics, September 22, 2020.
“Gasoline Demand More Responsive to Price Changes than Economists Once Thought,” with Xiaoqing Zhou, Dallas Fed Economics, June 16, 2020.
“How Falling Oil Prices in Early 2020 Weakened the U.S. Economy,” with Michael D. Plante and Xiaoqing Zhou, Dallas Fed Economics, May 19, 2020.
“How the Saudi Decision to Launch a Price War Is Reshaping the Global Oil Market,” Dallas Fed Economics, April 2, 2019.