Special Questions

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey

Data were collected Sept. 15–23, and 103 Texas manufacturers responded to the survey.

How do your firm’s current revenues compare with a typical September?

NOTES: 102 responses. This same question was posed in May, June, July and August, with the wording adjusted to reference the respective month of comparison. Averages are calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 7.5 percent of responses omitted.

How does your firm's current employee head count compare with February (pre-COVID-19)?

NOTES: 101 responses. Averages are calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 7.5 percent of responses omitted.

How have health and safety procedures implemented due to COVID-19 affected productivity of employees at your worksite?

NOTE: 102 responses.

Please indicate which of the following best characterizes your firm’s current situation:

NOTE: 102 responses.

Given your current outlook, how likely is it that your business will permanently shut down within the next 12 months?

NOTE: 102 responses.

Special Questions Comments

These comments have been edited for publication.

Chemical Manufacturing

• Overall orders and production volume remain impacted. There has been slight growth, but we’ve been very slow to recover, and we’ve had much lower volumes year over year.

Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing

• Based upon recent oil and gas industry studies, the market is expected to have little growth for the next calendar year. We should see mostly flat growth through the middle of 2021, with a small climb near the third quarter.

Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing

• We have been able to operate safely in a COVID-19 context. Should there be another COVID-19 wave in the winter, state and local governments in Texas should avoid any intent in hard-locking economic activity of nearly every kind (except for high-spreader events and close-contact, high-density locations) and limit themselves to mask-wearing mandates in public places.

Primary Metal Manufacturing

• We are having some trouble hiring people. There are not as many looking for work as the newspapers and TV indicate.

Fabricated Metal Manufacturing

• We are accustomed to volatility, but we need to show profitability to continue our source of bank financing.
• We can’t go on like this for too much longer. What keeps me up at night: No vaccine means no turnaround, so we’ll probably eke by for six, maybe 12, more months. After that, barring a significant “V” shape or hockey-stick recovery, we’ll be in trouble in 2022.

Machinery Manufacturing

• We have approximately 8 percent of our workforce working remotely. PPE [personal protection equipment] and sanitation practices are well-adhered to.
• It’s good to hear that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time. That alone will help tremendously with our financial condition. My business is down 50 percent, but we will survive even if I have to put my own money into my business. We have paid down debt over the past several years, which clearly has benefited our current situation. And even though we are borrowing money today, it is manageable as long as our business continues to recover.

Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing

• Although the risk of shutting down permanently seems low at this time, it is difficult to know what the business will look like and how to adjust with the uncertainty which still exists. For example, revenues are down 60 percent, but employee count is down 40 percent. We removed production resources but kept management resources, anticipating a shorter comeback period. That viewpoint is being tested, and our ability or willingness to continue to overemploy in anticipation of the return of a portion of our business tied to oil and gas will have to end at some point. The business will not permanently close, but we may need to cut core positions if the current uncertainty and extended downturn continue.
• We are fully operational but working 85 percent remotely. We are trying to identify a way to sublease our office space to reduce unneeded expenses. We have had a few COVID-positive people, but we have been able to work around this as normal sick days. We remain cautious but optimistic.

Transportation Equipment Manufacturing

• Our likelihood of shutting down is at about zero.
• We are looking to apply for PPP [paycheck protection program] forgiveness, but like all government programs, there is a lot of chaos and confusion with little useful guidance.
• We are unusual for these times since we manufacture ambulances (considered critical infrastructure) and we have seen an increased demand for our product.

Food Manufacturing

• We have dealt with some supply-chain issues but continue to see rapid growth in sales and hiring.
• We have an unlimited demand. Funding is the issue.

Apparel Manufacturing

• We expect to be fully operational, with all employees back at work by the end of October.

Furniture and Related Product Manufacturers

• Common sentiment is that while extra sanitation and handwashing precautions make sense, the COVID-19 requirements overall have been significantly overblown and are putting unnecessary hardship on many businesses in the area. State leadership, particularly the governor, needs to ease requirements, open up all remaining businesses and truly lead by imploring people to be cautious while conducting trade and business.

Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey

Data were collected Sept. 15–23, and 277 Texas business executives responded to the survey.

How do your firm’s current revenues compare with a typical September?

NOTES: 269 responses. This same question was posed in May, June, July and August, with the wording adjusted to reference the respective month of comparison. Averages are calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 7.5 percent of responses omitted.

How does your firm's current employee head count compare with February (pre-COVID-19)?

NOTES: 271 responses. Averages are calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 7.5 percent of responses omitted.

How have health and safety procedures implemented due to COVID-19 affected productivity of employees at your worksite?

NOTE: 273 responses.

Please indicate which of the following best characterizes your firm’s current situation:

NOTE: 272 responses.

Given your current outlook, how likely is it that your business will permanently shut down within the next 12 months?

NOTE: 273 responses.

Special Questions Comments

These comments have been edited for publication.

Truck Transportation

• We are unable to find qualified mechanics or truck drivers.

Pipeline Transportation

• Our field team is close to 100 percent with COVID-19 mitigation protocols, while our headquarters/office is at about 50 percent remote working from home. 

Support Activities for Transportation

• We invoice daily and still have a week to go. But September is on track to do the same thing [as August]. 

Credit Intermediation and Related Activities

• We have been  preparing for remote work during the last few years. The COVID-19 stuff is lasting a lot longer than an ice storm would, but the remote work theory is the same. We accelerated our purchase of commercial laptops when COVID-19 first hit. Our system people have been on top of it.
• Our loan funds are performing very well, and our new garage venture is seeing revenue now, although not yet covering costs. I am concerned about our nonprofit entity, which depends on grants from corporations and foundations for about 70 percent of its earnings. I am planning to reduce employees soon and starting to consider what other options there might be for the nonprofit entity, which employs the majority of our people.

Insurance Carriers and Related Activities

• We are a title and escrow company, and due to the historically low interest rates, we are thriving. 

Real Estate

• Our business is real estate sales. We are essential and have continued working.

Rental and Leasing Services

• All 24 stores are up, open and running with full staff; our "shutdown" portion is that my leadership team cannot call on those they lead at least on a regular basis, and my sales teams cannot call on customers in an efficient, productive manner!

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

• Our revenues are really 800 percent over a year ago.
• I will continue to offer consulting services; however, there is essentially no business activity.
• We see technology business (we are part of it) improve and grow significantly in the last four months of this year (September–December 2020), especially since overseas countries’ business climates and orders to us have also begun to improve.
• The PPP [Paycheck Protection Program] was definitely a game changer, but at the current level of activity, no additional stimulus is needed by this company. We are heavily involved in the e-commerce industry, with little to no exposure to the leisure/hotel or restaurant industries. 
• We had to reduce salary and workload of staff who are unable or unwilling to provide productivity benefits from a work-from-home environment.

Administrative and Support Services

• We continue to see strong demand. However, it continues to be difficult to meet the demand, given employee issues and an inability to hire additional workers.
• This is a very tough time in the staffing business, as companies are not initiating new projects or adding staff. The level of business is primarily continuing projects, not [starting] new ones.

Ambulatory Health Care Services

• The unconstitutional and non-medically supported measures and lockdowns have destroyed the business.
• We have been impacted by [Hurricane] Laura as well, even though it missed Houston—probably a 10 percent revenue hit on top of COVID-19.

Nursing and Residential Care Facilities

• Nursing homes are between a rock and a hard place. We are in a no-win situation. Recent publications estimate that 60–70 percent will be out of business in one year.  

Social Assistance

• As a health issue, the partial shutdown [of our business] is required to meet social distancing requirements. Customers are seen by appointment at our offices (e.g., as opposed to not requiring appointments), and the number of visits are limited. However, contact with customers increased through virtual/electronic formats. While our brick-and-mortar locations are partially shut down, we service more customers now than ever before.

Performing Arts, Spectator Sports and Related Industries

• [We need to] open the economy fully.

Amusement, Gambling and Recreation Industries

• Due to the limited authorized operating days, the production of necessary revenue will not allow for maintenance for the next season. Additionally, the taxes on property, insurance and utilities were not generated as necessary for the next eight months.

Accommodation

• We have enough cash to sustain the current level of business for 18 months.

Food Services and Drinking Places

• [A permanent shutdown of our business] is not likely if business improves. If there is a forced shutdown or another COVID-19 wave, it is very likely.

Texas Retail Outlook Survey

Data were collected Sept. 15–23, and 56 Texas retailers responded to the survey.

How do your firm’s current revenues compare with a typical September?

NOTES: 53 responses. This same question was posed in May, June, July and August, with the wording adjusted to reference the respective month of comparison. Averages are calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 7.5 percent of responses omitted.

How does your firm's current employee head count compare with February (pre-COVID-19)?

NOTES: 54 responses. Averages are calculated as trimmed means with the lowest and highest 7.5 percent of responses omitted.

How have health and safety procedures implemented due to COVID-19 affected productivity of employees at your worksite?

NOTE: 54 responses.

Please indicate which of the following best characterizes your firm’s current situation:

NOTE: 54 responses.

Given your current outlook, how likely is it that your business will permanently shut down within the next 12 months?

NOTE: 54 responses.

Special Questions Comments

These comments have been edited for publication.

Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods

• The increased revenues, when compared to a typical September, are mostly due to our efforts in responding to the cleanup from Hurricane Laura.
• We are just giving customer service and following up on pending guarantees.

Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers

• Steps taken to limit meetings in person, temperature monitoring and strict use of masks have greatly reduced our number of positive cases and direct exposure issues.

Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies Dealers

• It is definitely a different world we live in today; basic business principles have not changed, but the way we deliver them have. We'll be in business 90 years in 2021 and plan on being around for a while longer.