Southwest Economy, First Quarter 2021

First Quarter 2021
Print version

• COVID-19 slammed into Texas, leaving long-lasting impacts
  Emily Kerr, Judy Teng and Keith Phillips
  The economic road from the COVID-19 recession in Texas will likely feature a steeper, more rapid climb than the usual gradual rise associated with most recoveries. Some structural changes that the pandemic wrought will take longer to resolve, including those that will make work from home a longer-term occupational reality for some.
• COVID-19 poses stubborn challenge to economic growth in Mexico
  Jesus Cañas and Chloe Smith
  Mexico, confronting a high rate of COVID-19 infection and an ineffectual medical response, recorded the largest decline in gross domestic product in a quarter century last year. While manufacturing trade with the U.S. provided economic support, the large and hard to reach off-the-books informal sector proved more troublesome and will play an important role in the nation’s performance in 2021.
• Value-added tax could restrain long-term federal debt
  On the record: A conversation with Alan D. Viard
  Alan D. Viard, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, studies tax and budget policy. A former senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Viard discusses how to address the U.S. budget deficit in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Spotlight: Pandemic pushes Texas minority unemployment beyond highs reached during Great Recession
  Carlee Crocker and Pia Orrenius
  Recessions are hardest on minorities; the COVID-19 downturn is no different in that regard. Texas is a majority minority state—more than half of Texas’ population is Hispanic or Black—and the consequences are far-reaching if those groups lag behind economically.
• Go figure: Collapsing fuel demand tanks Texas exports during pandemic’s peak
  Design: Justin Chavira; Content: Emma Marshall, Pia Orrenius
  The COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on Texas energy exports. U.S. energy exports excluding Texas were dramatically less affected.
• Snapshot: Dining out picks up in Texas, Houston
  The number of patrons dining at restaurants surged in Texas and Houston after the state thawed from a deep freeze in February and COVID-19 constraints on restaurants and bars were lifted March 10.
• President’s perspective
  Robert S. Kaplan