Policy impact of unexpected Fed rate movements blurred by key information cues
Unexpected Federal Reserve monetary policy moves can profoundly affect market participants, investors and the economy. The impact of policy stems not only from its direct effects—the traditional focus for economists—but also from the new information revealed about the Fed’s economic outlook.
August 22, 2023
Research Department Working Papers
Financial Shocks in an Uncertain Economy
This paper focuses on some of the lessons we have learned over the years: (i) uncertainty and tail risk have cyclical variation; (ii) financial shocks can have a significant effect on macroeconomic outcomes; (iii) the impact of shocks is stronger in periods of high volatility.
July 07, 2023
Gazing at r-star: Gauging U.S. monetary policy via the natural rate of interest
While estimating r-star is fraught with difficulty, the latest evidence suggests U.S. monetary policy likely turned restrictive at the start of 2023, after the Federal Reserve started raising rates in March 2022.
July 03, 2023
Rent inflation remains on track to slow over the coming year
The rental rate for new leases increased about 15 percent in 2021, despite a modest increase in the most commonly watched U.S. inflation gauges. A forecast of rent inflation currently anticipates it slowing to below 6 percent by the end of first quarter 2024.
June 20, 2023
Job vacancy, unemployment relationship clouds ‘soft landing’ prospects
Some economists have argued that because the job vacancy rate has been well above its prepandemic level, there is plenty of room for vacancies to fall before the unemployment rate must rise.
February 07, 2023
Globalization Institute Working Paper
Forecasting Inflation in Open Economies: What Can a NOEM Model Do?
This paper evaluates the forecasting ability when inflation is viewed as an inherently global phenomenon through the lens of the workhorse New Open Economy Macro (NOEM) model.
December 20, 2022
Research Department Working Papers
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey: Survey Methodology and Performance
This paper describes the survey methodology and analyzes the explanatory and predictive power of TMOS indexes with regard to other measures of state economic activity.
December 31, 2014