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Dallas Fed: Texas Added 35,800 Jobs in July; State Employment Forecast Rises to 1.3 Percent

For immediate release: April 23, 2015

DALLAS—Texas added 35,800 jobs in July, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. This was the largest monthly gain so far this year.

The state added a revised 10,300 jobs in June. Through July, jobs have grown at an annualized pace of 1.3 percent after growing 3.6 percent in 2014.

Starting today, the Dallas Fed will begin releasing its Texas employment forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December.

Incorporating July’s employment data, the Texas employment forecast now stands at 1.3 percent, suggesting 154,200 jobs will be added in Texas this year. This is an upward revision from 1.0 percent in June.

July job growth was both strong and broad based, resulting in a slight upward revision to the 2015 forecast, according to Keith Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist. However, after two months of increases, the Dallas Fed’s Texas Leading Index declined in June and July.

“The recent weakness in the Texas Leading Index suggests that the strength in job growth in July is not likely to persist,” Phillips said. “The decline in oil prices may dampen the momentum in job growth in the months ahead. The employment forecast model predicts that the pace of growth in the final five months of the year will be similar to the average pace of growth through July.”

Unemployment rates rose slightly in four of nine major Texas metro areas in June, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed. Unemployment rates remained flat in the other five major metro areas.

The Dallas Fed improves the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal adjustment technique. Texas metropolitan area unemployment rates from the BLS also are seasonally adjusted by the Dallas Fed.

The Dallas Fed also offers seasonally adjusted employment data by industry at the state and metro levels for Texas.

For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas employment forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.

Next Release Date: September 18