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Research and analysis of economic trends and developments

Christopher Otrok and Braden Strackman

The recent co-movement of inflation across countries, including the U.S., can be explained in part by global and regional factors. Policymakers, who have tended to more closely look closer to home may want to more broadly consider global events and pressures when addressing changing inflation pressures.

Tyler Atkinson

The sort of increase seen in the U.S. unemployment rate over the past year is an oft-noted predictor of recession. Yet, forecasters currently expect only a modest increase in unemployment with no recession. Is this a reasonable expectation, and if so, how is this unemployment episode different from others?

Laila Assanie, Diego Morales-Burnett and Ethan Dixon

The Texas economic expansion continued in August despite some signs of slowing. Employment growth strengthened, rebounding from weakness in the prior two months.

Xudong An, Stuart A. Gabriel and Nitzan Tzur-Ilan

Using California's Camp Fire as a natural laboratory, this article examines the effects of both fire and smoke-related air pollution on household credit card spending and repayment.

Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

Observers often assert that stigma—a perception that depositors, investors or others will penalize an institution for borrowing from the discount window—keeps banks from borrowing when they should, making the facilities less effective. Dallas Fed Senior Vice President Sam Schulhofer-Wohl argues that some harms of discount window stigma can be mitigated regardless of whether stigma itself persists.

J. Scott Davis and Pon Sagnanert

The purchasing power parity theory of exchange rates is easily understood: A basket of goods should have the same price in different markets when that price is expressed in a common currency. However, the relationship between market-determined exchange rates and inflation shocks is not always straightforward. In the short run, central bank transparency can become an important determinant.

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Dallas Fed Economics