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Research and analysis of economic trends and developments

Dallas Fed Economics

Chi-Young Choi, Alexander Chudik and Aaron Smallwood

Growth in house prices is highly persistent and therefore more predictable than that of other assets, such as stocks.

Scott Davis and Pon Sagnanert

During the initial weeks of the COVID-19 crisis, imbalances in the offshore dollar funding market led to safe-haven appreciation of the dollar. Fed swap lines between the U.S. central bank and counterparts abroad addressed these imbalances, subsequently helping reduce the cost of offshore dollar borrowing, reversing dollar appreciation and providing liquidity.

Lutz Kilian and David Rapson

The decline in Russian oil export revenue since January 2022 was achieved by reducing the Russian export price rather than the volume of Russian oil exports.

Robert Leigh, Ana Pranger, Yichen Su and Mariam Yousuf

Texas economic activity expanded at a modest pace in April. While the manufacturing sector rebounded, the service sector slowed. Texas employment growth was moderate in the first quarter, slightly above the state’s roughly 2 percent long-run trend, and the unemployment rate held steady.

Alexander W. Richter and Xiaoqing Zhou

The direct impact of higher mortgage rates on housing affordability has received much attention. We emphasize that housing affordability not only depends on mortgage rates but also on house prices, which have competing effects.

Jesus Cañas and Diego Morales-Burnett

A majority of Texas Business Outlook Surveys participants expect increasing demand over the next six months, signaling an improving business outlook, even as inflation and wage growth in Texas remain elevated.

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Dallas Fed Economics