Skip to main content
Research and analysis of economic trends and developments

Lutz Kilian, Michael D. Plante, Alexander W. Richter and Xiaoqing Zhou

Recent research quantifies the impact of 2026 Iran war on U.S. inflation and household inflation expectations under a range of scenarios. Under a plausible scenario, 2026 fourth-quarter-over-fourth quarter headline personal consumption expenditures inflation would increase by 0.6 percentage points.

Tyler Atkinson, Jim Dolmas and Rebecca Zarutskie

Divergence of core and trimmed mean inflation readings prompt reassessment of which one is the best indicator of medium-term trend.

Cameron Barrett

Retail electricity rates are higher in California than Texas, but electricity cost accounts for a lower share of household budgets in California.

Rachel A. Jones, Reid Taylor and Nitzan Tzur-Ilan

Overall, homeowners insurance is becoming less affordable, yet this deterioration in affordability is not well captured by either of the most widely used inflation measures—CPI or PCE—both designed to track price levels rather than affordability or household financial strain.

Lorie Logan and Sam Schulhofer-Wohl

Some observers have argued that the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is too large and complicates the central bank’s operations. We catalog options for reducing the Fed’s major liabilities, which help determine the size of the balance sheet, as well as a framework for assessing the costs and benefits of those options.

Anton Cheremukhin, Daniel Wilson and Xiaoqing Zhou

For policymakers, interpreting labor market conditions increasingly requires looking beyond headline payroll growth and incorporating timely measures of immigration and labor supply.

Show post archive

Dallas Fed Economics