This paper combines administrative data on border encounters and immigration court records with household survey data to document two new facts about these immigrants: They tend to be hand-to-mouth consumers and low-skilled workers that complement the existing workforce. The authors build these features into a model with capital, household heterogeneity and population growth to study the inflationary effects of this episode.

This paper finds empirical evidence of a possible structural break in the relationship between the foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. long-term interest rate occurring at the time when U.S. monetary policy became constrained at the zero-lower bound (ZLB).

Recent theories of exchange rate determination have emphasized limited UIP arbitrage by international financial institutions. New regulations since 2008 have also led to imperfect CIP arbitrage. This paper shows that under limited CIP arbitrage the exchange rate and CIP deviation are jointly determined by equilibrium in the FX spot and swap markets.

This paper adds to recent evidence on deindustrialization and documents a new pattern: increasing industry polarization over time.

This paper builds a unified framework to quantitatively examine how demographic transition and industrial policies have contributed to China’s economic growth in the past five decades.