International economy
					  Learn about global economic growth and its effects on U.S. monetary policy
				  
                   
                 
                  
            Spotlight
        
    
            
    
            
 
        
        
            Global Institute
                    The  Institute delivers critical insights and analysis on monetary policy issues impacting the U.S. economy and its deep financial and economic relationship with Mexico.
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            International House Price Database, second quarter 2025 data
                    The International House Price Database comprises quarterly house price and personal disposable income (PDI) series for 25 different countries with data since 1975.
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            Database of Global Economic Indicators
                    This database standardizes and disseminates world economic indicators for policy analysis and scholarly work on the role of globalization.
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            Dallas Fed Economics
        
    
            
    
            
 
        
        
            Mexico’s economy surprises to the upside, but outlook is weak
                    The Mexican economy grew during the first half of 2025, surprising analysts who had anticipated a recession. However, the outlook is weak, with the consensus forecast implying economic slowdown during the second half.
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            Rush for U.S. lithium production encounters tough economics
                    Commercial interests are striving to bring new lithium projects online in the U.S. at a  time of growing desire to reduce reliance on China-dominated supply chains and with expectations that global demand could double over the next five years.
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            Working papers and research
        
    
            
    
            
            Living Up to Expectations: The Effectiveness of Forward Guidance and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis
                    This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks face private agents with heterogeneous expectations allowing for a degree of bounded rationality.
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            The Contribution of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities to the U.S. Long-Term Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of the Zero Lower Bound
                    This paper finds empirical evidence of a possible structural break in the relationship between the foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. long-term interest rate occurring at the time when U.S. monetary policy became constrained at the zero-lower bound (ZLB).
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            Exchange Rate Determination Under Limits to CIP Arbitrage
                    Recent theories of exchange rate determination have emphasized limited UIP arbitrage by international financial institutions. New regulations since 2008 have also led to imperfect CIP arbitrage. This paper shows that under limited CIP arbitrage the exchange rate and CIP deviation are jointly determined by equilibrium in the FX spot and swap markets.
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            Just Do IT? An Assessment of Inflation Targeting in a Global Comparative Case Study
                    This paper introduces novel measures to assess the effectiveness of inflation targeting (IT) and examines its performance across a broad sample of advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).
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            Xtpb: The Pooled Bewley Estimator of Long Run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels
                    This paper introduces a new Stata command, xtpb, that implements the Chudik, Pesaran and Smith (2023) Pooled Bewley (PB) estimator of long-run relationships in dynamic heterogeneous panel-data models.
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            Deindustrialization and Industry Polarization
                    This paper adds to recent evidence on deindustrialization and documents a new pattern: increasing industry polarization over time.
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