International economy
Learn about global economic growth and its effects on U.S. monetary policy
Spotlight
Global Institute
The Institute delivers critical insights and analysis on monetary policy issues impacting the U.S. economy and its deep financial and economic relationship with Mexico.
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International House Price Database, third quarter 2024 data
The International House Price Database comprises quarterly house price and personal disposable income (PDI) series for 25 different countries with data since 1975.
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Database of Global Economic Indicators
This database standardizes and disseminates world economic indicators for policy analysis and scholarly work on the role of globalization.
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Dallas Fed Economics
Will AI replace your job? Perhaps not in the next decade
Recent rapid improvements in the capabilities of artificial intelligence have raised concerns about these technologies' impact on employment. The ultimate effects of AI on the workforce will depend on the extent to which AI augments (or complements) rather than automates (or substitutes for) workers' tasks. Will this new technology aid workers or replace them?
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Has the Beige Book become disconnected from economic data?
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book, a key tool for identifying U.S. business-cycle shifts, has traditionally aligned with economic data. However, postpandemic, its economic characterizations often appear weaker than what hard data indicated, raising concerns of divergence from official statistics.
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Working papers and research
Living Up to Expectations: The Effectiveness of Forward Guidance and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis
This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks face private agents with heterogeneous expectations allowing for a degree of bounded rationality.
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The Contribution of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities to the U.S. Long-Term Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of the Zero Lower Bound
This paper finds empirical evidence of a possible structural break in the relationship between the foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. long-term interest rate occurring at the time when U.S. monetary policy became constrained at the zero-lower bound (ZLB).
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Exchange Rate Determination Under Limits to CIP Arbitrage
Recent theories of exchange rate determination have emphasized limited UIP arbitrage by international financial institutions. New regulations since 2008 have also led to imperfect CIP arbitrage. This paper shows that under limited CIP arbitrage the exchange rate and CIP deviation are jointly determined by equilibrium in the FX spot and swap markets.
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Just Do IT? An Assessment of Inflation Targeting in a Global Comparative Case Study
This paper introduces novel measures to assess the effectiveness of inflation targeting (IT) and examines its performance across a broad sample of advanced economies (AEs) and emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs).
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Xtpb: The Pooled Bewley Estimator of Long Run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels
This paper introduces a new Stata command, xtpb, that implements the Chudik, Pesaran and Smith (2023) Pooled Bewley (PB) estimator of long-run relationships in dynamic heterogeneous panel-data models.
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Deindustrialization and Industry Polarization
This paper adds to recent evidence on deindustrialization and documents a new pattern: increasing industry polarization over time.
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Discover articles and papers from our research team