International economy
Learn about global economic growth and its effects on U.S. monetary policy
Spotlight
Global Institute
The Institute delivers critical insights and analysis on monetary policy issues impacting the U.S. economy and its deep financial and economic relationship with Mexico.
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International House Price Database, first quarter 2026 data
The International House Price Database comprises quarterly house price and personal disposable income (PDI) series for 25 different countries with data since 1975.
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Database of Global Economic Indicators
This database standardizes and disseminates world economic indicators for policy analysis and scholarly work on the role of globalization.
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Dallas Fed Economics
What Big Macs tell us about the disconnect between prices and exchange rates
The Economist’s Big Mac Index is a measure of the real exchange rate that instead of measuring the price of a basket of goods and services, measures the price of one good, the McDonald’s Big Mac. Recent empirical work finds that financial factors, and not monetary ones, underlay a very high correlation between nominal exchange rates and the Big Mac-based real exchange rate.
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Refinery outages pumping up fuel prices more than cost of crude oil
Even after the Iran conflict ends and the flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, U.S. fuel prices will likely remain unusually elevated relative to crude prices, owing to diminished refining operations. As a result, headline inflation measures could remain above where oil price trends would normally indicate for as long as a significant portion of global refining capacity stays offline.
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Working papers and research
How Times Have Changed: The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on the U.S. Economy
The 2026 Iran war has raised the question of how exposed the U.S. economy is to geopolitical oil supply disruptions. This paper develops a two-country model of the global economy with large geopolitical oil supply disruptions that distinguishes between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world.
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The Interest Rate Effects of Government Debt and Deficits: Does Domestic Borrowing Have a Different Impact Than Foreign Borrowing?
This paper investigates the relationship between government debt and interest rates and asks whether the effect of government debt on interest rates depends on whether that debt is financed at home or abroad.
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Living Up to Expectations: The Effectiveness of Forward Guidance and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis
This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks face private agents with heterogeneous expectations allowing for a degree of bounded rationality.
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The Contribution of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities to the U.S. Long-Term Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of the Zero Lower Bound
This paper finds empirical evidence of a possible structural break in the relationship between the foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. long-term interest rate occurring at the time when U.S. monetary policy became constrained at the zero-lower bound (ZLB).
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Xtpb: The Pooled Bewley Estimator of Long Run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels
This paper introduces a new Stata command, xtpb, that implements the Chudik, Pesaran and Smith (2023) Pooled Bewley (PB) estimator of long-run relationships in dynamic heterogeneous panel-data models.
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Deindustrialization and Industry Polarization
This paper adds to recent evidence on deindustrialization and documents a new pattern: increasing industry polarization over time.
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