International economy

The 2026 Iran war has raised the question of how exposed the U.S. economy is to geopolitical oil supply disruptions. This paper develops a two-country model of the global economy with large geopolitical oil supply disruptions that distinguishes between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world.

This paper investigates the relationship between government debt and interest rates and asks whether the effect of government debt on interest rates depends on whether that debt is financed at home or abroad.

This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks face private agents with heterogeneous expectations allowing for a degree of bounded rationality.

This paper finds empirical evidence of a possible structural break in the relationship between the foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. long-term interest rate occurring at the time when U.S. monetary policy became constrained at the zero-lower bound (ZLB).

This paper introduces a new Stata command, xtpb, that implements the Chudik, Pesaran and Smith (2023) Pooled Bewley (PB) estimator of long-run relationships in dynamic heterogeneous panel-data models.

This paper adds to recent evidence on deindustrialization and documents a new pattern: increasing industry polarization over time.