International Economy

One major outcome of the Federal Reserve’s 2019–20 framework review was the adoption of a Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) strategy in August 2020. Using synthetic control methods, this paper documents that U.S. inflation rose post-FAIT considerably more than predicted had the strategy not changed.

This paper provides estimates of COVID-19 transmission rates and explains their evolution for selected European countries since the start of the pandemic taking account of changes in voluntary and government-mandated social distancing, incentives to comply, vaccination and the emergence of new variants.

This paper estimates the heterogeneous effect of the global financial cycle on exchange rates and cross-border capital flows during the COVID-19 pandemic, using weekly exchange rate and portfolio flow data for a panel of 48 advanced and emerging market economies.

Using a new system pooled mean group estimator and a dataset spanning almost one and a half centuries and 17 countries, this paper finds support for five out of the seven great ratios considered.

This paper provides a quantitative analysis of the distributional effects of the 2018 increase in tariffs by the U.S. and its major trading partners.

This paper finds that a rise in uncertainty about the path of interest rates increases unemployment and lowers core inflation, explaining a significant portion of U.S. business cycle fluctuations, particularly after the 2007-09 global financial crisis, and making the transmission of monetary policy less effective.