International economy
Learn about global economic growth and its effects on U.S. monetary policy
Spotlight
Global Institute
The Institute delivers critical insights and analysis on monetary policy issues impacting the U.S. economy and its deep financial and economic relationship with Mexico.
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International House Price Database, third quarter 2025 data
The International House Price Database comprises quarterly house price and personal disposable income (PDI) series for 25 different countries with data since 1975.
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Database of Global Economic Indicators
This database standardizes and disseminates world economic indicators for policy analysis and scholarly work on the role of globalization.
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Dallas Fed Economics
Term funding premium: Time is money even absent interest rate risk
Term premium, a central concept in analysis of interest rates and monetary policy, is generally viewed largely as compensation for bearing interest-rate risk. However, Treasury asset swap spreads strongly indicate the existence of a distinct premium—a term funding premium—associated with merely providing term financing. This funding premium shows promise as a real-time indicator of Treasury market stress.
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U.S. economy less vulnerable to geopolitical oil price shocks than in the past
Recent Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas research shows that the response of U.S. real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth to the 2026 Iran war is only one-twentieth of what it would have been in 1980. Moreover, the response of U.S. real GDP growth today is only one-sixth of the decline in the rest of the world.
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Working papers and research
How Times Have Changed: The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on the U.S. Economy
The 2026 Iran war has raised the question of how exposed the U.S. economy is to geopolitical oil supply disruptions. This paper develops a two-country model of the global economy with large geopolitical oil supply disruptions that distinguishes between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world.
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The Interest Rate Effect of Government Debt and Deficits: Does Domestic Borrowing Have a Different Impact Than Foreign Borrowing?
This paper investigates the relationship between government debt and interest rates in advanced economies.
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Living Up to Expectations: The Effectiveness of Forward Guidance and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis
This paper studies the effectiveness of forward guidance when central banks face private agents with heterogeneous expectations allowing for a degree of bounded rationality.
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The Contribution of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities to the U.S. Long-Term Interest Rate: An Empirical Investigation of the Impact of the Zero Lower Bound
This paper finds empirical evidence of a possible structural break in the relationship between the foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. long-term interest rate occurring at the time when U.S. monetary policy became constrained at the zero-lower bound (ZLB).
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Xtpb: The Pooled Bewley Estimator of Long Run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels
This paper introduces a new Stata command, xtpb, that implements the Chudik, Pesaran and Smith (2023) Pooled Bewley (PB) estimator of long-run relationships in dynamic heterogeneous panel-data models.
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Deindustrialization and Industry Polarization
This paper adds to recent evidence on deindustrialization and documents a new pattern: increasing industry polarization over time.
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Discover articles and papers from our research team