U.S. Economy

Economic Data

Trimmed Mean PCE

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE).

Weekly Economic Index

The WEI is an index of 10 daily and weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to align with the four-quarter GDP growth rate.

Market Value of U.S. Government Debt

Par and market values are reported for gross federal debt, privately held gross federal debt and marketable Treasury debt.

U.S. Economy Charts

Monthly set of charts on U.S. economic activity, wages and prices and financial-sector developments

Working Papers and Research

Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand

This paper proposes a new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand that exploits systematic differences across U.S. states in the pass-through of oil price shocks to retail gasoline prices.

A Broader Perspective on the Inflationary Effects of Energy Price Shocks

This paper develops a vector autoregressive model that quantifies the joint impact of shocks to several energy prices on headline and core CPI inflation.

Macroeconomic Responses to Uncertainty Shocks: The Perils of Recursive Orderings

A common practice in empirical macroeconomics is to examine alternative recursive orderings of the variables in structural vector autoregressive (VAR) models. If the responses look similar, they are considered trustworthy. If not, the estimates are often used to bound the true response. This paper proves by counterexample that this practice is invalid in general.

Why Has U.S. Stock Ownership Doubled Since the Early 1980s? Equity Participation Over the Past Half Century

The U.S. stock ownership rate doubled between 1983 and 2001 but remains below predictions of some equity participation models.

A Rescue or a Trap?—An Analysis of Parent PLUS Student Loans

Parents taking out loans for their children’s college educations may face an excessive debt burden that jeopardizes their own financial security. This paper examines the experience of Parent Loan for Undergraduate Students (PLUS) borrowers using administrative data from a large student loan guaranty agency.

Consumption and Hours in the United States and Europe

This paper documents large differences between the United States and Europe in allocations of expenditures and time for both market and home activities.

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Explore the National Economy

Job vacancy, unemployment relationship clouds ‘soft landing’ prospects

Some economists have argued that because the job vacancy rate has been well above its prepandemic level, there is plenty of room for vacancies to fall before the unemployment rate must rise.

Tax, transfer programs explain why Western Europeans work less than Americans

Western Europe differs from the United States not only in consumption tax, income tax and social security systems but also in the total factor productivity—a measure of productivity—for market production in which most European countries are low.