U.S. Economy

Economic data

Trimmed Mean PCE

The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE).

Weekly Economic Index

The WEI is an index of 10 daily and weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to align with the four-quarter GDP growth rate.

Market value of U.S. government debt

Par and market values are reported for gross federal debt, privately held gross federal debt and marketable Treasury debt.

U.S. economic data

List of all U.S. data produced by the Dallas Fed.

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Monetary policy

Inflation

Banking and finance

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Working papers and research

The Effects of U.S. Public R&D on Global Growth

This paper provides the first causal estimates of the global social returns to U.S. public R&D.

Work from Home and Migration

This paper studies how full-time work from home affects migration and economic activity across cities.

How Times Have Changed: The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on the U.S. Economy

The 2026 Iran war has raised the question of how exposed the U.S. economy is to geopolitical oil supply disruptions. This paper develops a two-country model of the global economy with large geopolitical oil supply disruptions that distinguishes between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world.

The Impacts of Unauthorized Immigration on U.S. Labor and Housing Markets: New Evidence from Administrative Microdata

From early 2021 to early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, followed by a rapid slowdown beginning in mid-2024. This paper provides the first systematic empirical assessment of the labor- and housing-market effects of this episode.

Processing Power: The Effect of Data Centers on Wholesale Electricity Markets

Artificial-intelligence-driven data centers are reversing two decades of flat U.S. electricity demand and have generated questions about how this growth will impact electricity prices. This paper quantifies this effect using an hourly, unit-level least-cost dispatch model covering wholesale electricity markets in the continental United States.

Social Network and Sentiment Contagion: Evidence from the Bitcoin Market

This paper introduces a novel measure of contagion intensity that significantly forecasts Bitcoin volatility, trading volume and market crashes.

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Explore the national economy

Refinery outages pumping up fuel prices more than cost of crude oil

Even after the Iran conflict ends and the flow of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, U.S. fuel prices will likely remain unusually elevated relative to crude prices, owing to diminished refining operations. As a result, headline inflation measures could remain above where oil price trends would normally indicate for as long as a significant portion of global refining capacity stays offline.

Tariffs increased in 2025; why did U.S. imports grow?

The U.S. average tariff rate increased from 2.9 percent in January 2025 to 14.8 percent in December, a rise of almost 12 percentage points. The surge—the largest such U.S. jump since the Smoot-Hawley tariffs at the onset of the Great Depression in 1930—led to a sharp increase in the tariff-inclusive prices that U.S. importers paid.