U.S. EconomyStay informed with our analysis on the United States economy
Trimmed Mean PCE
The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE).
Weekly Economic Index
The WEI is an index of 10 daily and weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to align with the four-quarter GDP growth rate.
Market Value of U.S. Government Debt
Par and market values are reported for gross federal debt, privately held gross federal debt and marketable Treasury debt.
U.S. Economy Charts
Monthly set of charts on U.S. economic activity, wages and prices and financial-sector developments
Discover articles and papers from our research team
Working Papers and Research
Money Matters: Broad Divisia Money and the Recovery of Nominal GDP from the COVID-19 Recession
The rise of inflation in 2021 and 2022 surprised many macroeconomists who ignored the earlier surge in money growth because past instability in the demand for simple-sum monetary aggregates had made these aggregates unreliable indicators. This paper finds that the demand for more theoretically-based Divisia aggregates can be modeled and that their growth rates provide useful information for future nominal GDP growth.
The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks
This paper estimates the causal impact of government-funded R&D on business-sector productivity growth.
Jointly Estimating Macroeconomic News and Surprise Shocks
This paper clarifies the conditions under which the state-of-the-art approach to identifying TFP news shocks in Kurmann and Sims (2021) identifies not only news shocks but also surprise shocks.
Debt Maturity and Commitment on Firm Policies
If firms can issue debt only at discrete dates, debt maturity is an effective device against the commitment problem on debt and investment policies. With shorter maturities, debt dynamics are less persistent and more valuable because upward leverage adjustments are faster and long-run leverage lower.
State-Dependent Local Projections
Do state-dependent local projections asymptotically recover the population responses of macroeconomic aggregates to structural shocks? The answer to this question depends on how the state of the economy is determined and on the magnitude of the shocks.
Heterogeneity in the Pass-Through from Oil to Gasoline Prices: A New Instrument for Estimating the Price Elasticity of Gasoline Demand
This paper proposes a new instrument for estimating the price elasticity of gasoline demand that exploits systematic differences across U.S. states in the pass-through of oil price shocks to retail gasoline prices.
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Explore the National Economy
The connection between banking and sovereign debt crises
Dallas Fed economist Sewon Hur examines how sovereign debt crises can amplify banking problems.
Interest rate volatility contributed to higher mortgage rates in 2022
The Federal Reserve aggressively tightened monetary policy in 2022, responding to high and persistent inflation. The resulting borrowing cost increase for households and firms was generally anticipated. However, fixed-rate mortgage interest rates were especially sensitive to the policy regime change.