U.S. Economy
Stay informed with our analysis on the United States economy
Economic data
Trimmed Mean PCE
The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation rate is an alternative measure of core inflation in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE).
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Weekly Economic Index
The WEI is an index of 10 daily and weekly indicators of real economic activity, scaled to align with the four-quarter GDP growth rate.
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Market value of U.S. government debt
Par and market values are reported for gross federal debt, privately held gross federal debt and marketable Treasury debt.
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U.S. economic data
List of all U.S. data produced by the Dallas Fed.
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Discover articles and papers from our research team
Working papers and research
Estimating Macroeconomic News and Surprise Shocks
This paper examines the ability of the state-of-the-art VAR approach in Kurmann and Sims (2021) to identify responses to TFP news shocks and possibly surprise shocks in theory and practice.
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Deposit Convexity, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability
Banks and researchers conventionally model the response of deposit interest rates to market interest rates as constant, implying that deposits have nearly constant duration. Contrary to this standard assumption, this paper shows empirically that the “beta” of deposit rates to market rates increases as market rates rise, causing the duration of deposits to fall.
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Investing in the Batteries and Vehicles of the Future: A View Through the Stock Market
A large number of companies operating in the EV and battery supply chain have listed on a major U.S. stock exchange in recent years. This paper investigates 1) how these companies’ stock returns are related to systematic risk factors that can explain movements in the stock market and 2) how these companies’ idiosyncratic returns are related to one another.
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Marriage and Work Among Prime-Age Men
Married men work substantially more hours than men who have never been married, even after controlling for observables. Panel data reveal that much of this gap is attributable to an increase in work in the years leading up to marriage.
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Oil Price Shocks and Inflation
Despite growing interest in the impact of oil and other energy price shocks on inflation and inflation expectations, until recently this question has not received much attention. This survey not only presents empirical results for the U.S. economy, but expands the analysis to include other major economies.
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High-Yield Debt Covenants and Their Real Effects
Contrary to the prevailing belief that incurrence covenants offer limited protection for creditors, this paper reveals a significant and sudden decline in investment upon triggering these covenants.
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Explore the national economy
How long is the soft-landing runway for the labor market?
A normalized labor market likely entails a more-usual relationship between layoffs and labor market tightness indicators, and sooner or later, a higher unemployment rate.
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Refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve offers chance to recalibrate its size
A series of emergency drawdowns, exchanges and planned sales since 2020 have reduced crude oil inventories held by the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve to a 40-year low. Calls to fully refill the SPR in recent months raise important questions.
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