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Dallas Fed: Texas Added 21,800 Jobs in October; State Employment Forecast Revised up to 1.3 Percent

For immediate release: November 20, 2015

DALLAS—Texas added 21,800 jobs in October, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The state added a revised 15,100 jobs in September. Through October, jobs have grown at an annualized pace of 1.4 percent after growing 3.6 percent in 2014.

Incorporating October’s employment data, the Texas employment forecast stands at 1.3 percent, suggesting 147,700 jobs will be added in Texas this year. This is an upward revision from 1.0 percent last month.

“With employment data through October it now seems certain that Texas will get through the 2015 oil bust with net positive job growth for the year,” said Keith Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist.

While the forecasted 1.3 percent job growth is much weaker than the 3.6 percent growth in 2014, it is stronger than other energy states and much better than what occurred in the 1980s following similar oil price declines, according to Phillips.

“Texas is much more diversified today than it was in the 1980s, and its real estate markets were in much better shape heading into this energy downturn,” Phillips said. “If oil prices remain near recent levels, 2016 job growth will likely remain close to this year’s pace.”

Unemployment rates rose in nine major Texas metro areas in October, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed. The unemployment rate in the Laredo metro area rose the most, from 4.6 percent in September to 4.9 percent in October.

The Dallas Fed improves the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal adjustment technique. Texas metropolitan area unemployment rates from the BLS also are seasonally adjusted by the Dallas Fed.

The Dallas Fed releases its Texas employment forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December.

For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas employment forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.

Next Release Date: December 18

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Media contact:
Alexander Johnson
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: (214) 922-5288
Email: alexander.johnson@dal.frb.org