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Dallas Fed: Texas Added 16,000 Jobs in December; State Employment Forecast Revised Down to 1.1 Percent for 2016

For immediate release: January 22, 2016

DALLAS—Texas added 16,000 jobs in December, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The state added a revised 17,800 jobs in November. In 2015, jobs grew at an annualized pace of 1.4 percent after growing 3.6 percent in 2014. Texas added 168,000 jobs in 2015.

“Despite a sharp fall in oil prices in November and December, the Texas economy continued to add jobs at a modest pace in December,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist. “Overall, 2015 was testament to the diversity of the state’s economy.”

Incorporating December’s employment data, the Texas employment forecast stands at 1.1 percent growth for 2016, suggesting 131,700 jobs will be added in Texas this year. This is a downward revision from the 1.4 percent forecast that was released by the Bank earlier this month.

The Bank’s Texas Leading Index declined in December, with all components giving negative signals except initial claims for unemployment insurance. During the three-month period ending in December, the components were more mixed with the decline in oil prices dominating the decline in the overall index.

Unemployment rates fell in nine major Texas metro areas in November, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.

The Dallas Fed improves the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal adjustment technique. Texas metropolitan area unemployment rates from the BLS also are seasonally adjusted by the Dallas Fed.

The Dallas Fed releases its Texas employment forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December.

For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas employment forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.

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Media contact:
Alexander Johnson
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: (214) 922-5288
Email: alexander.johnson@dal.frb.org