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Dallas Fed: Texas Adds 24,500 Jobs in May; State Employment Forecast Raised to 2.6 Percent Growth for 2017

For Immediate Release: June 16, 2017

DALLAS—Texas added 24,500 jobs in May, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The state added a revised 20,800 jobs in April. Texas jobs have grown 2.5 percent year to date in 2017 after rising 1.2 percent in 2016. The monthly annualized growth rate was 2.4 percent in May. 

Incorporating May employment growth of 2.4 percent and revised April leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast calls for 2.6 percent growth in 2017, with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.6 to 3.6 percent. This suggests that the state will add 309,200 jobs by year’s end. The forecast was revised upward from the Bank’s estimate of 2.4 percent growth released last month.

“Job growth has been quite robust over the first five months of the year, averaging 2.5 percent,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist. “With the recent uptick in the leading index and sustained recovery in the energy and manufacturing sectors, we expect this good pace of growth to continue in the second half of the year. Last year, jobs grew only 1.2 percent.”

Several components of the Texas Leading Index are not yet available for May. However, the components that are available indicate continued growth in the index. For example, help-wanted advertising, average weekly hours worked in manufacturing and preliminary estimates of initial claims for unemployment continue to be positive contributors to the index.

Unemployment rates fell in seven of nine major Texas metro areas in April, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed. Unemployment rates were flat in the Austin–Round Rock and Fort Worth–Arlington metro areas.

The Dallas Fed improves Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal-adjustment technique. Texas metropolitan-area unemployment rates from the BLS also are seasonally adjusted by the Dallas Fed.

The Dallas Fed releases its Texas Employment Forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December. For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas Employment Forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.

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Media contact:
Jennifer Chamberlain
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: (214) 922-6748
E-mail: jennifer.chamberlain@dal.frb.org