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Dallas Fed: Texas Adds 36,100 Jobs in June; State Employment Forecast Rises to 2.8 Percent for 2017

For Immediate Release: July 21, 2017

DALLAS—Texas gained 36,100 jobs in June, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The state added a revised 27,600 jobs in May. Texas jobs have grown 2.7 percent year to date in 2017 after rising 1.2 percent in 2016. The monthly annualized growth rate was 3.6 percent in June.

Incorporating June employment and new Texas Leading Index data, the Texas Employment Forecast calls for 2.8 percent growth for 2017, with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.0 to 3.6 percent. This suggests 336,000 jobs will be added in Texas this year. The forecast was revised upward from the Bank’s estimate of 2.6 percent growth released last month.

The Dallas Fed’s Texas Leading Index picked up substantially over the three months ending in June, rising 1.26 percent. Average weekly hours worked in manufacturing and a decline in the Texas value of the dollar were the largest positive contributors to the index, both reflecting recent improvements in the state’s manufacturing sector. Energy sector indicators dragged slightly on the index, although permits for drilling new wells increased in June after declining for two consecutive months.

“Strong job growth in June and a rebound in the leading index pushed the job forecast to its highest level this year,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist. “Growth in the second quarter was 2.8 percent, the fastest we have seen since the end of 2014.”

Unemployment rates fell in six of nine major Texas metro areas in June, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed. Unemployment rates remained unchanged in the Dallas–Plano–Irving (3.8 percent) and Laredo (5.0 percent) metro areas. The Houston–The Woodlands–Sugarland metro area unemployment rate rose slightly from 5.0 percent in May to 5.1 percent in June.

The Dallas Fed improves Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal-adjustment technique. Texas metropolitan-area unemployment rates from the BLS also are seasonally adjusted by the Dallas Fed.

The Dallas Fed releases its Texas Employment Forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December.

For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas Employment Forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.

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Media contact:
Alex Johnson
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: (214) 922-5288
E-mail: alexander.johnsonn@dal.frb.org