Dallas Fed: Texas adds 33,000 jobs in May; state employment forecast declines slightly to 3.3 percent for 2018
For Immediate Release: June 15, 2018
DALLAS—Texas added 33,000 jobs in May, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The state added a revised 41,500 jobs in April. That brings the year-to-date annualized growth rate to 3.6 percent.
Incorporating May annualized employment growth of 3.2 percent and new leading index data, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 3.3 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 2.4 to 4.2 percent. This is down from the previous estimate of 3.6 percent. Based on the forecast, 412,600 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2018 will be 12.7 million
The 2018 forecast is significantly above 2017 job growth of 1.9 percent, which was recently revised down from 2.1 percent due to the early benchmark revision for the fourth quarter.
“Texas job growth continued at a strong pace in May,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist. “However, growth has slipped a little over the past three months, which, along with a slowdown in the Texas Leading Index, has resulted in a slight downward revision to the 2018 forecast.
“The goods-producing sectors of energy, manufacturing and construction continue to lead overall jobs, with growth so far this year of 21.3, 4.7 and 7.3 percent respectively,” Phillips said. “The booming energy sector has led to sharp gains in drilling areas such as Midland and Odessa. Houston continues to lead the large metro areas in the state followed closely by Dallas.”
Unemployment rates ticked down in all nine major Texas metro areas in May, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.
The Dallas Fed improves Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal-adjustment technique. Texas metropolitan-area unemployment rates from the BLS also are seasonally adjusted by the Dallas Fed.
The Dallas Fed releases its Texas Employment Forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December. For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas Employment Forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.
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Media contact:
Jennifer Chamberlain
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: (214) 922-6748
E-mail: jennifer.chamberlain@dal.frb.org