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Dallas Fed: Texas Adds 36,000 Jobs in July; State Employment Forecast Increases to 2.6 Percent Growth in 2019

For Immediate Release: August 16, 2019

DALLAS—Texas added 36,000 jobs in July, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

The state added a revised 41,500 jobs in June. Year-to-date annualized job growth stands at 2.8 percent compared to annual growth of 2.3 percent in 2018.

Incorporating July job growth of 3.4 percent and a slight increase in the leading index, the Texas Employment Forecast suggests jobs will grow 2.6 percent this year (December/December), with an 80 percent confidence band of 1.9 to 3.3 percent. This was a slight increase from last month’s release.

Based on the forecast, 331,100 jobs will be added in the state this year, and employment in December 2019 will be 12.9 million.

 “Despite continued declines in the energy sector, the Texas economy continues to grow at a strong pace,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist.  “Growth in the construction, financial services and leisure and hospitality sectors has been particularly robust, while the manufacturing sector has picked up from modest growth in the first five months of the year. 

“Dallas continues to grow rapidly, driven partly by the strength in financial services and construction, and Ft. Worth has recently picked up as manufacturing has improved. While job growth in Houston remains positive, it slowed in July likely due to the weakening in the energy sector.”

Unemployment rates increased in all nine major Texas metro areas in July, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed.

The Dallas Fed improves Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal-adjustment technique. The Dallas Fed also seasonally adjusts Texas metropolitan-area unemployment rates from the BLS.

The Dallas Fed releases its Texas Employment Forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December. For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas Employment Forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.

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Media contact:
Jennifer Chamberlain
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: (214) 922-6748
Email: jennifer.chamberlain@dal.frb.org