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Dallas Fed: Texas Adds 21,700 Jobs in July; State Employment Forecast Revised Up to 0.8 Percent for 2016

For immediate release: August 19, 2016

DALLAS—Texas added 21,700 jobs in July, according to seasonally adjusted and benchmarked payroll employment numbers released today by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. The state added a revised 16,700 jobs in June. Year to date, jobs have grown at an annualized pace of 0.3 percent after growing 1.3 percent in 2015. The monthly annualized growth rate in July was 2.2 percent.

Incorporating July’s employment data, the Texas Employment Forecast stands at 0.8 percent growth for 2016, suggesting 96,200 jobs will be added in Texas this year. This represents an increase from last month’s estimate of 0.5 percent.

“Recent data suggest that the Texas economy has improved and that growth in the second half of the year will be much better than in the first half,” said Keith R. Phillips, Dallas Fed assistant vice president and senior economist. “In July, jobs grew at their fastest pace so far this year and June growth was revised up by almost 6,000 jobs.”

The Dallas Fed’s Texas Leading Index picked up moderately in July, led by a rebound in help-wanted advertising and solid gains in the stock prices of Texas-based companies and the U.S. leading index. The net three-month change in the leading index, however, was negative at –0.74 percent.

“The rebound in help-wanted advertising in July suggests that employers are returning to the market looking for more workers,” Phillips said. “The continued strength in the value of the dollar, however, poses significant challenges for Texas manufacturers.”

Unemployment rates rose in eight of nine major Texas metro areas in July, according to seasonally adjusted numbers from the Dallas Fed. The unemployment rate in Fort Worth–Arlington was unchanged, but the Houston metro area spiked from 4.9 to 5.4 percent.

The Dallas Fed improves Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) payroll employment estimates for Texas by incorporating preliminary benchmarks into the data in a more timely manner and by using a two-step seasonal-adjustment technique. Texas metropolitan-area unemployment rates from the BLS also are seasonally adjusted by the Dallas Fed.

The Dallas Fed releases its Texas Employment Forecast on a monthly basis in conjunction with the release of monthly Texas employment data. The forecast projects job growth for the calendar year and is estimated as the 12-month change in payroll employment from December to December.

For information on the methodology for the Bank’s Texas Employment Forecast, visit the Dallas Fed’s website.


Media contact:
Jennifer Chamberlain
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Phone: (214) 922-6748