Exploring energy markets and their impact on the economy
The Center for Energy and the Economy (CEE) produces academic research that expands and deepens our collective understanding of how developments in energy markets inform monetary policy. The Center, established in August 2025, serves as a platform to facilitate the dissemination of energy sector expertise throughout the Federal Reserve System and to the public.
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Recent research
How Times Have Changed: The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on the U.S. Economy
The 2026 Iran war has raised the question of how exposed the U.S. economy is to geopolitical oil supply disruptions. This paper develops a two-country model of the global economy with large geopolitical oil supply disruptions that distinguishes between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world.
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If You Build It, They May Not Come: Willingness to Participate in Managed EV Charging
This paper tests managed charging with an experiment including all electric vehicles within a California utility.
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The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on U.S. Inflation: A Scenario Analysis
This paper shows how to assess the inflationary impact of the rise in the price of oil caused by the 2026 Iran War.
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Processing Power: The Effect of Data Centers on Wholesale Electricity Markets
Artificial-intelligence-driven data centers are reversing two decades of flat U.S. electricity demand and have generated questions about how this growth will impact electricity prices. This paper quantifies this effect using an hourly, unit-level least-cost dispatch model covering wholesale electricity markets in the continental United States.
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Mean Group and Pooled Mixed-Frequency Estimators of Responses of Low-Frequency Variables to High-Frequency Shocks
This paper proposes mean group and pooled estimators of impulse responses based on mixed-frequency auxiliary distributed lag (DL), autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) or vector autoregressive distributed lag (VARDL) estimating equations.
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Smooth Operator? Managing Electric Vehicle Integration in Constrained Distribution Networks
This paper examines the underappreciated challenges that electric vehicle (EV) adoption poses for the distribution grid.
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Insights
Recent Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas research shows that the response of U.S. real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth to the 2026 Iran war is only one-twentieth of what it would have been in 1980. Moreover, the response of U.S. real GDP growth today is only one-sixth of the decline in the rest of the world.
Texas tends to report higher employment and output when oil prices sharply increase. But uncertainty regarding the duration of elevated prices could mute such impacts from the price shock following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Activity in the oil and gas sector jumped in second quarter 2026, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.
Events of related interest
Energy and the Economy: The Geography of Energy Flows
The tenth joint energy conference hosted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Dallas and Kansas City will focus on the outlook for global energy markets as well as energy trade flows and developing domestic energy infrastructure. Participants include business leaders, central bankers, government officials, academics and financial market representatives.
November 14, 2025
Denver and virtual
See the agenda
Center for Energy and the Economy
In Focus
Energy Indicators
Energy Indicators is a quarterly web publication of key economic indicators that offers a snapshot of the energy sector.
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Energy Slideshow
Charts containing the latest data on the outlook for energy in the region, the U.S. and around the world.
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Energy in the Eleventh District
Production, employment and economic activity data highlighting growth in oil and natural gas producing regions and the growing role of solar and wind power.
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