Exploring energy markets and their impact on the economy
The Center for Energy and the Economy (CEE) produces academic research that expands and deepens our collective understanding of how developments in energy markets inform monetary policy. The Center, established in August 2025, serves as a platform to facilitate the dissemination of energy sector expertise throughout the Federal Reserve System and to the public.
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Recent research
What the Iran War Teaches Us about the Price Elasticity of Oil Supply
This paper draws on evidence from the 2026 Iran War to assess the validity of estimates of the short-run price elasticity of oil supply reported in the literature.
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The Incidence of Fuel-Price Shocks and Tax Holidays: Evidence from the 2026 Oil Shock
This paper measures the distributional incidence of U.S. motor-fuel tax holidays using transaction records from ∼13,200 gasoline stations linked to neighborhood income.
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Optimal Second-best Menu Design: Evidence from Residential Electricity Plans
Utilities increasingly sell electricity using complex menus of time-constant and time-varying price schedules. This paper studies how to design such a menu to maximize social welfare in a second-best environment where the marginal private and external costs of generating electricity vary over time, institutional constraints prevent mandating time-varying pricing and consumer behavior is distorted by frictions.
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Semiparametric Local Projections
This paper proposes a semiparametric local projection estimator of nonlinear impulse response functions for a broad class of structural dynamic models relevant for applied macroeconomics, including models with nonlinearly transformed regressors, state dependent coefficients and nonlinear interactions between shocks and state variables.
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How Times Have Changed: The Impact of the 2026 Iran War on the U.S. Economy
The 2026 Iran war has raised the question of how exposed the U.S. economy is to geopolitical oil supply disruptions. This paper develops a two-country model of the global economy with large geopolitical oil supply disruptions that distinguishes between the U.S. economy and the rest of the world.
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If You Build It, They May Not Come: Willingness to Participate in Managed EV Charging
This paper tests managed charging with an experiment including all electric vehicles within a California utility.
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Insights
Recent Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas research shows that the response of U.S. real (inflation-adjusted) GDP growth to the 2026 Iran war is only one-twentieth of what it would have been in 1980. Moreover, the response of U.S. real GDP growth today is only one-sixth of the decline in the rest of the world.
The Texas economy strengthened in the second quarter, with job growth accelerating and business activity expanding. A pickup in temporary hiring is a positive signal for Texas’ labor market.
Activity in the oil and gas sector jumped in second quarter 2026, according to oil and gas executives responding to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey.
Events of related interest
Energy and the Economy: Tail Risks, Tailwinds and Resiliency
This conference will investigate contours of tail risks in the energy sector, highlighting how such events affect broader economic conditions and what opportunities may emerge as conditions change.
November 10, 2026
Houston and virtual
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Center for Energy and the Economy
In Focus
Energy Indicators
Energy Indicators is a quarterly publication that provides a snapshot of the energy sector.
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Energy Slideshow
Charts containing the latest data on the outlook for energy in the region, the U.S. and around the world.
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Energy in the Eleventh District
Production, employment and economic activity data highlighting growth in oil and natural gas producing regions and the growing role of solar and wind power.
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